Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Gray-Wolf]

Yeah DXR, 'bout bloody time too! I'll be going all 'maunder min' myself if things don't start to pick up soon!!!

Do we know if spot numbers can increase dramatically once the sun sorts it's act out or are they always a gradual thing?

Edited September 22, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[LadyPakal]

I thought this was an interesting chart-

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com...wavelet_ssn.png

The pattern seen here seems unmistakable.

From here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/

[Mondy]

If this is the true beginning of SC24, then an onslaught of spots quickly emerges. By maximum, solar flux would be approx 150, with a sunspot count in the 160's / 170's - we'll see.

My hunch is this is just a minor showing and June 2009 is latest for SC24 to really kick in. Few months maybe before more action.

[Crepuscular Ray]

If this is the true beginning of SC24, then an onslaught of spots quickly emerges. By maximum, solar flux would be approx 150, with a sunspot count in the 160's / 170's - we'll see.

My hunch is this is just a minor showing and June 2009 is latest for SC24 to really kick in. Few months maybe before more action.

Well, it's a welcome start, anyway. It was getting very, very boring.

[Anti-Mild]

Well, it's a welcome start, anyway. It was getting very, very boring.

Thing is, it's the third or fourth 'welcome start' this year http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif !

I'm sure I read somwhere that if things haven't picked up by the end of the year then the scientists will start to get mildly concerned - I'll try and find the link.

[laserguy]

I'm sure I read somwhere that if things haven't picked up by the end of the year then the scientists will start to get mildly concerned - I'll try and find the link.

The biggest area of concern until the awful gravity of the situation becomes apparent,is the collapse of the CO2 theory being the driver of climate change http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif .

[Mondy]

Actually, have the magnetic poles flipped yet?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Actually, have the magnetic poles flipped yet?

According to NASA, it did in 2001, at the peak of the sunspot cycle.

The spot appears to be fading rapidly already, although Soho's it's growing on the SoHO's magnetogram.

[noggin]

It's that NASA conference thing today, isn't it? I wonder when we will hear anything.

Ah, right. The teleconference is at 12.30p.m. EDT. I think I am right in saying that that is 5.30p.m. our time. A tea-time treat, perhaps? Or a bit of indigestion?

[Gray-Wolf]

It's that NASA conference thing today, isn't it? I wonder when we will hear anything.

Ah, right. The teleconference is at 12.30p.m. EDT. I think I am right in saying that that is 5.30p.m. our time. A tea-time treat, perhaps? Or a bit of indigestion?

Seeing as I know next to nowt about such things I've believed everything they've told us so far so I'll be well miffed if they change their predictions in any major way!

[JRMcLeod]

A bit off topic but does anyone know if there was any meteor shower forecast last night? Its just i was driving down the A90, south from Aberdeen at about 10pm and there was a massive meteor, it was green and the tail was right across the sky, it broke up and loked like it was going to hit because it was still lit as it approachd the horizon, lots of people saw it becaue a lot of them put their brakes on...it was the biggest meteor i have ever seen and took quite sometime to cross the sky...anyone know anything?

[Crepuscular Ray]

A bit off topic but does anyone know if there was any meteor shower forecast last night? Its just i was driving down the A90, south from Aberdeen at about 10pm and there was a massive meteor, it was green and the tail was right across the sky, it broke up and loked like it was going to hit because it was still lit as it approachd the horizon, lots of people saw it becaue a lot of them put their brakes on...it was the biggest meteor i have ever seen and took quite sometime to cross the sky...anyone know anything?

There's no shower expected around now, and they normally consist of far smaller particles that burn up much higher up. It sounds as if you saw one that's not associated with a meteor shower. The local astronomy society may be interested in your sighting if you can pinpoint the time, where it came from and what its trajectory was.

[JRMcLeod]

There's no shower expected around now, and they normally consist of far smaller particles that burn up much higher up. It sounds as if you saw one that's not associated with a meteor shower. The local astronomy society may be interested in your sighting if you can pinpoint the time, where it came from and what its trajectory was.

Do you know how i would get in touch with a local one near Aberdeen?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Do you know how i would get in touch with a local one near Aberdeen?

http://fedastro.org.uk/fas/index.php?optio...er&Itemid=8

They have lists of all the affiliated societies in the UK.

CR

[Mondy]

It's that NASA conference thing today, isn't it? I wonder when we will hear anything.

Ah, right. The teleconference is at 12.30p.m. EDT. I think I am right in saying that that is 5.30p.m. our time. A tea-time treat, perhaps? Or a bit of indigestion?

http://www.nasa.gov/news/media/newsaudio/index.html

[noggin]

A bit off topic but does anyone know if there was any meteor shower forecast last night? Its just i was driving down the A90, south from Aberdeen at about 10pm and there was a massive meteor, it was green and the tail was right across the sky, it broke up and loked like it was going to hit because it was still lit as it approachd the horizon, lots of people saw it becaue a lot of them put their brakes on...it was the biggest meteor i have ever seen and took quite sometime to cross the sky...anyone know anything?

No, but (yeah, but!), I understand that August/September is the time of year that has the most meteor showers. I don't know the reason for this, though.

2006 was pretty phenomenal for such showers, IIRC.

[Crepuscular Ray]

No, but (yeah, but!), I understand that August/September is the time of year that has the most meteor showers. I don't know the reason for this, though.

2006 was pretty phenomenal for such showers, IIRC.

Quick explanation

The major meteor showers of the year are:

Quadrantids January 1-6 (peak Jan 3-4)

Lyrids April 19-25 (peak Apr 21-22)

Eta Aquarids May 1-10 (peak May 5)

Delta Aquarids July 15-August 15 (peak July 28-29)

Perseids July 23-August 20 (peak Aug 12-13)

Orionids October 16-27 (peak Oct 20-22)

Taurids October 20-November 30 (peak Nov 4)

Leonids November 15-20 (peak Nov 17-18)

Geminids December 7-15 (peak Dec 13-14)

Meteor showers are associated with the remnants of the tails of comets and occur when the Earth's orbit crosses the path of a comet's tail (the Leonids are associated with Comet Tempel-Tuttle). The particles are mostly minute and burn up in the upper atmosphere within a second or two.

Sporadic meteors can occur at any time: there are usually two-three an hour visible from any one place in good dark skies. They are just random dust particles hitting the atmosphere.

Bigger lumps - bits knocked off asteroids, the Moon or Mars, or bits of space hardware re-entering the Earth's atmosphere - can also occur at any time and these burn up lower in the atmosphere, and I suspect that this is what caused the fireball yeahbabyyeah saw. The biggest of the non-man-made ones hit the ground as meteorites.

[Mondy]

http://www1.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/fe...s-20080923.html

[Typhoon John]

They're staying very tight lipped regarding their thoughts on reduced solar activity leading to cooling of the climate.

The closest they've got so far was to say that there is a correlation over the long term between extended solar mins and cooler temperatures, for example, the maunder minimum.

But no indication on their ideas about the next max or whether an extended min is approaching.

[mettalfabrik]

interesting stuff this,if i understood this right the suns heliosphere is shrinking and solar wind dynamic pressure is the lowest since the sixties,they wont be drawn at all on any climatic issues ,although they admit to upper atmosphere cooling and that means less drag for spacecraft,basically somethings happening that has happened before only this time we can study it properly,as for the next solar max intensity ,they dont know and we will have to wait see

al good stuff though!!

the ulysses mission is coming to the end of its working life too! best way send up another pretty smartish i should think

Edited September 23, 2008 by blackdown

[pottyprof]

Yes.. Very interesting conference..

Great to hear that they have some good data.. Also good to hear that the haven't a clue as to what's going to happen during the next cycle..

At least they admit it..

[mettalfabrik]

text report here

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/H...41_Ulysses.html

and quote

In 2007, Ulysses made its third rapid scan of the solar wind and magnetic field from the sun's south to north pole. When the results were compared with observations from the previous solar cycle, the strength of the solar wind pressure and the magnetic field embedded in the solar wind were found to have decreased by 20 percent. The field strength near the spacecraft has decreased by 36 percent.

"The sun cycles between periods of great activity and lesser activity," Smith said. "Right now, we are in a period of minimal activity that has stretched on longer than anyone anticipated."

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Im sure Henrik Svensmark at the Danish Space Centre will be extremely interested in this data. Anybody know of any figures for cloud cover this year compared with previous years that might tie in with his theories regarding cosmic rays and cloud formation?

[mettalfabrik]

A bit off topic but does anyone know if there was any meteor shower forecast last night? Its just i was driving down the A90, south from Aberdeen at about 10pm and there was a massive meteor, it was green and the tail was right across the sky, it broke up and loked like it was going to hit because it was still lit as it approachd the horizon, lots of people saw it becaue a lot of them put their brakes on...it was the biggest meteor i have ever seen and took quite sometime to cross the sky...anyone know anything?

must reply to this

had the airband scanner on about that time last night ,a pilot was asking cardiff ATC If the had anything on radar as the had see n something very bright and traveling fast ,he said towards birmingham, they must have answered in the negative and there fore he would not file a report,you dont give a direction for your fireball and i,m not sure of the pilots position but it obviously concerned him enough to contact radar

[Anti-Mild]

Im sure Henrik Svensmark at the Danish Space Centre will be extremely interested in this data. Anybody know of any figures for cloud cover this year compared with previous years that might tie in with his theories regarding cosmic rays and cloud formation?

I've just read his book 'The Chilling Stars' and I reckon that Svensmark and Calder would have been listening to NASA very carefully and will probably be preparing something already.