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yep very quiet fozi although ! higher latitudes could be in for a treat tonight ,clear skies notwithstanding!!!

GEOALERT BRU194

UGEOA 30512 80712 1136/ 9930/

10122 22122 30122

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Jul 2008 until 14

Jul 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 027

PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 033

PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 008

COMMENT: Solar activity shows no change and remains very low. On the

contrary, at Earth there are minor storm conditions at present. The

high

speed stream from the coronal hole, now finishing its central meridian

pass, has become geoeffective. The solar wind speed of about 650 km/s

was accompanied by a negative Bz, reaching -10nT and producing a

Kp-index of 5. The geomagnetic activity will remain from unsettled to

active today and tomorrow, with possible geomagnetic storms especially

early on July 13th. Auroras are expected at high latitudes.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1543

Issue Time: 2008 Jul 12 1422 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1542

Valid From: 2008 Jul 11 2345 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Jul 12 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

Would a Kp index of 5 be enough for the Shetlands to see the Aurora?

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thats a good one nigel

i,ve latched on to this area of thought for about two years now, and although i dont understand some of the more complex science, i think there may be something to this,i think we may well be at a junction

any way cycle 24 is,nt behaving as predicted, and personally speaking i know from my own location last summer/winter was cooler and this summer so far is,nt any better(its autumnal cold here this morning)

wether this is due to the solar influence or other factors is hard to fathom,we will see!

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Today the solar flux has dipped to a new low of 64.2. Just so you do not worry too much, on July 2, 1954 a value of 64.4 was observed. What followed was one of the strongest Cycles ever recorded (Solar Cycle 19).

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Edited by Delta X-Ray

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latest from sidc

only a reoccuring coronal hole though

GEOALERT BRU202

UGEOA 30512 80720 1304/ 9930/

10202 21202 30202

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 20 Jul 2008 until 22

Jul 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 007

PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 012

PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 022

COMMENT: The SIDC ALL QUIET ALERT is halted today in expectation of a

recurrent coronal hole which is forecasted to become geoeffective on

Tuesday July 22. At that time, we predict a change from quiet to active

geomagnetic conditions. Meanwhile, there is no flaring activity on the

sun.

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A familiar story blackdown - a little activity is to be welcomed though!

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I think it's about 20 days now since any sunspots and almost 70 days since any SC24 sunspots! It's all very quiet at the moment.

Although, according to David Hathaway of NASA there is nothing unusual at all.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11...cycleupdate.htm

I've just been checking the archives of SpaceWeather and according to them, the last SC24 sunspot disappeared on the 6th of May, 91 days ago, and the last sunspot visible was on the 23rd of June, 43 days back.

I know Mr Hathaway maintains that this prolonged quiet (silent) spell is nothing unusual but I would suggest that the scientists are slightly baffled by it.

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I know Mr Hathaway maintains that this prolonged quiet (silent) spell is nothing unusual but I would suggest that the scientists are slightly baffled by it.

Why baffled? Scientists can only postulate the mechanisms that create sunspots and have a total reliance on statistics for prediction. It's a veritable sweepstake to state when significant solar activity will resume and cycle 24 is definitively declared underway. Whilst interesting (or even exciting) for some, statistically this low period is wholly insignificant.

ffO.

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Why baffled? Scientists can only postulate the mechanisms that create sunspots and have a total reliance on statistics for prediction. It's a veritable sweepstake to state when significant solar activity will resume and cycle 24 is definitively declared underway. Whilst interesting (or even exciting) for some, statistically this low period is wholly insignificant.

ffO.

Okay, as soon as I posted I regretted the use of the word 'baffled'! Perhaps 'interested' would have been a better choice. My point was that they have been predicting an upturn in activity for a good while now and the extended quiet period may provide them with an opportunity to explore why their predictions have been wrong.

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Guest Shetland Coastie

Okay, as soon as I posted I regretted the use of the word 'baffled'! Perhaps 'interested' would have been a better choice. My point was that they have been predicting an upturn in activity for a good while now and the extended quiet period may provide them with an opportunity to explore why their predictions have been wrong.

Or perhaps prove Landscheit right?

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I've just been checking the archives of SpaceWeather and according to them, the last SC24 sunspot disappeared on the 6th of May, 91 days ago, and the last sunspot visible was on the 23rd of June, 43 days back.

I know Mr Hathaway maintains that this prolonged quiet (silent) spell is nothing unusual but I would suggest that the scientists are slightly baffled by it.

There was a SC24 plage region three days ago -just about made spot status, then died!

Posted Image

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We're up to 25 days without a sunspot and over 100 days without a cycle 24 sunspot I believe. Currently there's no indication that activity will pick up in the short term.

Edited by fozi999

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STOP THE PRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There's an emerging sunspot for the first time in over a month!! Admittedly it's another old cycle sunspot but still.....!

Well over 100 days since a cycle 24 sunspot though ;) .

Cancel that, turns out is wasn't a sunspot after all!

http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2008/22au...2o6elmdvf7mnn87

It's the ISS!!

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“I am surprised that if its going to be big solar cycle 24,

its taking this long for sunspots to get started.”

- David Hathaway, Ph.D., Solar Physics Team Leader,

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama

August 29, 2008 Huntsville, Alabama

Edited by Delta X-Ray

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latest from SIDC

SIDC URSIGRAM 80904

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Sep 2008, 1216UT

SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Sep 2008 until 06 Sep 2008)

SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet

PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 036

PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 027

PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2008 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 010

COMMENT: A compressed plasma structure preceding the solar wind

emanating from a coronal hole arrived on Aug 03. Early Aug 04, the Bz

component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned negative leading

to geomagnetic disturbances. We expect the storm to lie down in the

coming hours. For tomorrow, we expect new disturbances.

LOOKING AT SPACEWEATHER ,COM and if there any clearish skies way up north in bonnie scotland it may be worth while having a gander outside tonight

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When was the last time the Aurora was seen as far south as England?

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i suspect full on aurora,s are rarely seen down here mate, but thats a good question ,perhaps mr data would have an answer

At the mo were in a G2 ALERT FOR geomagnectic storms

G 2

Moderate

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Kp = 6

600 per cycle

(360 days per cycle)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index....omagneticStorms

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html

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When was the last time the Aurora was seen as far south as England?

Late eighties or early nineties I think. I missed it as I was asleep in bed and my family decided not to wake me. Very annoying.

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