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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Yes, activity has fallen, but your source site's 336 pixel limit is an artificial cut off. The patch of black dots labelled 2290 on that image is definitely a sunspot group. And I still don't understand why you wish to keep to results that are equivalent to those obtained by old technology. What's wrong with scientific progress?

 

There's nothing wrong at all with scientific progress. However if you want to compare historical record then you need to be able to adjust modern method to those of the past. This is taken from the laymans site and shows what is used to calculate the sunspot number  and as you can see there are several different sources. Thus my preference to use a sunspot number calculate as near to the historic method as possible

 

The Drawing Ref. is the drawing used that day that can include in order of preference Locarno, Catania and if both are not available the SDO image and a manual count (Waldmeier method). If available the SIDC value is Locarno x 0.6 (or Catania x 0.55).

 

Now 7 days spotless

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

SOLAR FLARES AND RADIO BLACKOUTS: Departing sunspot AR2290 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, an mate-class explosion on March 3rd @ 01:35 UT, almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


m8_strip.jpggoes-xray-flux.gif


http://spaceweather.com/


Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Update 25 Feb 2015

 

As ever, which modern scientific instrument are you following Jon?

 

Above data from spaceweather.com

 

Anyway, given that the quiet solar max has so far produced two of the mildest/least snowy winters for decades in this country, how are the correlations for low solar max/cold winters in the UK looking?

 

Incorrect in saying this winter one of the mildest in decades, it has ended up being very near average - only slightly above average, and firmly average if you compare it with the last 30 years. Granted last winter was a very mild one and as we know the wettest - I don't think it is pure coincidence this occurred at the peak of the current solar cycle.

 

I do think solar activity has an important part to play in our climate, but it is just one factor, but a significant one.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

 A sunspot hidden just behind the sun's southeastern limb is crackling with solar flares. The strongest so far, an M3-classeruption on March 6th. http://spaceweather.com/

 

goes-xray-flux.gifm3.jpg?PHPSESSID=25q7j8u2vrpmpi684cupndh

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well, some of what I see on http://www.spaceweather.com is definitely small spots not pixels. If you click on the image of the sun and then enlarge it, you'll see what I mean.

 

Which I assume traditionally wouldn't have been picked up. Given enough resolution we could define any mere speck as a sunspot.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.

Incorrect in saying this winter one of the mildest in decades, it has ended up being very near average - only slightly above average, and firmly average if you compare it with the last 30 years. Granted last winter was a very mild one and as we know the wettest - I don't think it is pure coincidence this occurred at the peak of the current solar cycle.

 

I do think solar activity has an important part to play in our climate, but it is just one factor, but a significant one.

Well, it has been here. There have been two frosts all winter and one ten-minute show shower.

 

I'm intrigued. What link do you see between last year's wet winter and the low level of solar activity, as measured through sunspot activity? Many on here would think that would indicate snow not increased rainfall and cold rather than the relatively mild temperatures that meant Somerset got inches of rain rather than feet of snow.

Edited by Crepuscular Ray
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

STRONG SOLAR FLARE: Emerging sunspot AR2297 has erupted again, producing its strongest flare yet: an M9-class explosion on March 7th at 22:22 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:


m9_strip.jpggoes-xray-flux.gif


 


http://spaceweather.com/

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Which I assume traditionally wouldn't have been picked up. Given enough resolution we could define any mere speck as a sunspot.

You assume wrong. The SIDC count is calibrated to the very telescope Rudolph Wolf used. I'm not sure how many times this has to be repeated.

Moreover, there is a meticulous ongoing SCIENTIFIC effort by the community of solar physicists to produce the most accurate sunspot record possible through the SSN workshop process.

http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

THE ERUPTIONS CONTINUE: For the 4th day in a row, sunspot AR2297 is crackling with solar flares. The latest, an M5-class eruption on March 9th at 23:53 UT, produced a low-frequency radio blackout over the South Pacific: map. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught the explosion's extreme UV flash:


m5_blue_strip.jpggoes-xray-flux.gif


Radio bursts, which reached Earth shortly after the flare, suggest that a CME is emerging from the blast site traveling faster than 960 km/s (2.1 million mph). Confirmation awaits coronagraph imagery from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft. http://spaceweather.com/


Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

X2-FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: All week long, sunspot AR2297 has been crackling with solar flares. Today it produced a really big one. On March 11th at 16:22 UT (09:22 PDT), Earth orbiting-satellites detected an X2-class flare, shown here in an image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:


x2_red_strip2.jpg


http://spaceweather.com/


Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

CME IMPACT: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT. The impact sparked a G1-classgeomagnetic storm, which could intensify in the hours ahead. http://spaceweather.com/

 

planetary-k-index.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

CME IMPACT: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT. The impact sparked a G1-classgeomagnetic storm, which could intensify in the hours ahead. http://spaceweather.com/

 

planetary-k-index.gif

Crikey, that is high.

What's the betting it will drop off as the sunsets.....

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Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)

I just came on to say the KP level is around 8 !!

As W-H above says, what's the betting it falls off or is cloudy tonight.

Argh, lol.

 

B. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Yup, G4 in progress. Worth keeping an eye on Aurora watch.

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

G4 still, just about touching a G5. Bz -17.8 south, and its misty here :(

 

Edit:  :ninja: "The observed Kp index is 8+ but the predicted K-indice of 9- indicates that stronger geomagnetic conditions might occur at this moment."

Edited by Mesosphere
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

G4 still, just about touching a G5. Bz -17.8 south, and its misty here :(

Edit: :ninja: "The observed Kp index is 8+ but the predicted K-indice of 9- indicates that stronger geomagnetic conditions might occur at this moment."

Don't you wish it was two months ago, it would be going dark now!

Cloud has been melting away in some areas but Sod's law says that as soon as darkness starts setting in, the readings will drop off!

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

Don't you wish it was two months ago, it would be going dark now!

Cloud has been melting away in some areas but Sod's law says that as soon as darkness starts setting in, the readings will drop off!

 

yeah, if only this had happened during the winter :( and aye typical sods law it'll go back to G3-G4 as soon as darkness strikes the UK 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes typical reg cloud cover.. Time yet.

 

CME IMPACT, SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT. At first,the impact sparked a relatively mild G1-class (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm. Since then, however, the storm has intensified to G4-class (Kp=8 8), ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. This storm is underway now. http://spaceweather.com/

 

europe_thumb.jpg

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

Same here... cloud .... always happens!

 

I got the warning alert on my mobile and it even made the BBC weather bulletin at 6:25.

 

Let's just hope for a few breaks in the cloud before the storm subsides.

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