Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

Great images here..

 

[Daniel*]

Stunning

[karyo]

Nice to see the solar activity dropping significantly recently! I think we have turned a corner at last.

[Nouska]

Nice to see the solar activity dropping significantly recently! I think we have turned a corner at last.

 

These low cycles can bump about a bit - no guarantees - but the forecast for the next month shows similar to what has been recorded recently.

 

Images courtesy of the BOM and NWRA.

 

Past month    forecast 

[John Badrick]

Nice to see the solar activity dropping significantly recently! I think we have turned a corner at last.

 

 Can I ask why you are you pleased solar activity has dropped ?

[jonboy]

 Can I ask why you are you pleased solar activity has dropped ?

 

Because at last we have probably gone past maximum. If that is so and the predictions for cycle 25 are correct we are unlikely to see solar activity at this level for at least 22/25 years. We are likely to be entering uncharted territory  in the sense that modern science has not seen at first hand the effects of significantly low solar cycles and the likely impact on climate. Yes GW naturals are about to make there true presence felt!!!!

[Polar Maritime]

Callanish Stones at midnight last night, with a hint of Aurora.

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

 Can I ask why you are you pleased solar activity has dropped ?

Jonboy is one of the many who correlate solar activity directly with weather conditions in the UK. The Maunder minimum a few hundred years ago resulted in the Little Ice Age and some snow lovers are hoping that the current lack of solar activity might be a precursor to something similar.

[John Badrick]

Jonboy is one of the many who correlate solar activity directly with weather conditions in the UK. The Maunder minimum a few hundred years ago resulted in the Little Ice Age and some snow lovers are hoping that the current lack of solar activity might be a precursor to something similar.

 

yes but this should not have much of an impact until around the turn of the decade, low solar activity now will have little, or no impact on our weather for the near future, so to get excited about it now is a premature I feel. We can start feeling the impact of low/ deep low solar activity when we are in solar min similar to 2008,09, but hopefully even more if the sun decides to hibernate 

[jonboy]

Impacts will be felt a lot sooner than the turn of the decade. We are coming off a significantly low maximum and as a result you will see the impacts a lot sooner than when we do reach minimum. Solar activity does not affect weather but does affect climate on a global scale. I expect to see a dropping of temperate trends as early as this year.

A significant number of Russian scientists agree with that thought!!!!!

Edited February 22, 2015 by jonboy

[BornFromTheVoid]

Impacts will be felt a lot sooner than the turn of the decade. We are coming off a significantly low maximum and as a result you will see the impacts a lot sooner than when we do reach minimum. Solar activity does not affect weather but does affect climate on a global scale. I expect to see a dropping of temperate trends as early as this year.

A significant number of Russian scientists agree with that thought!!!!!

 

And a significant number of non-Russian scientists disagree. But time will tell!

 

I'll personally go with 2015-2019 averaging warmer than 2010-2014, despite the upcoming solar minimum.

[Gael_Force]

Impacts will be felt a lot sooner than the turn of the decade. We are coming off a significantly low maximum and as a result you will see the impacts a lot sooner than when we do reach minimum. Solar activity does not affect weather but does affect climate on a global scale. I expect to see a dropping of temperate trends as early as this year.

A significant number of Russian scientists agree with that thought!!!!!

How did you arrive at this strange statement?

 

For climate to change, the weather has to change first. FWIW, I agree with your assertion that impacts may be felt sooner than the actual minimum but the climate has built up a fair head of steam; it will take a while to see cooling on a wider scale.

[jonboy]

How did you arrive at this strange statement?

 

For climate to change, the weather has to change first. FWIW, I agree with your assertion that impacts may be felt sooner than the actual minimum but the climate has built up a fair head of steam; it will take a while to see cooling on a wider scale.

 

Weather is what you see day to day and yes it will be determined by the greater climatic patterns which in my opinion to a great part are influenced by solar activity. So solar won't influence my weather tomorrow but may well impact what it will be in say 6 months time if that makes sense!!

[jonboy]

And today a spotless day is recorded by the layman sunspot site no bad for solar maximum

[Polar Maritime]

[jonboy]

In fact the laymans sunspot site has now recorded 3 spotless days. I think we are going to see a quick drop into a more minmum state

[Yarmy]

In fact the laymans sunspot site has now recorded 3 spotless days. I think we are going to see a quick drop into a more minmum state

 

I can see sunspots for the past 3 days. Moreover, so can the volunteer observers for the SIDC and certainly Rudolf Wolf would have in the 19th Century. The SIDC count is calibrated to the telescope he used. Indeed, the actual telescope itself is still used, I believe.

 

[jonboy]

I can see sunspots for the past 3 days. Moreover, so can the volunteer observers for the SIDC and certainly Rudolf Wolf would have in the 19th Century. The SIDC count is calibrated to the telescope he used. Indeed, the actual telescope itself is still used, I believe.

 

 

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

 

which explains the pixel threshold and thus the 3 spotless days

[Polar Maritime]

EXPLOSION ON THE SUN: Today, Feb. 24th at approximately 11:00 UTC, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a spectacular eruption near the sun's southeastern limb. The blast was rooted on the backside of the sun, but some of the explosion's debris fell back to the sun on the frontside. Play the movie. Earth was not in tthe line of fire. 

 

http://spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

5 spotless days  and F10.7 flux falling as well

[Crepuscular Ray]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Update 25 Feb 2015

 

As ever, which modern scientific instrument are you following Jon?

 

Above data from spaceweather.com

 

Anyway, given that the quiet solar max has so far produced two of the mildest/least snowy winters for decades in this country, how are the correlations for low solar max/cold winters in the UK looking?

Edited February 25, 2015 by Crepuscular Ray

[jonboy]

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2015 total: 0 days (0%)

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Update 25 Feb 2015

 

As ever, which modern scientific instrument are you following Jon?

 

Above data from spaceweather.com

 

Anyway, given that the quiet solar max has so far produced two of the mildest/least snowy winters for decades in this country, how are the correlations for low solar max/cold winters in the UK looking?

 

This is the site i follow

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

 

and we are now at 6 spotless days

[Crepuscular Ray]

Well, some of what I see on http://www.spaceweather.com is definitely small spots not pixels. If you click on the image of the sun and then enlarge it, you'll see what I mean.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Crepuscular Ray

[jonboy]

Well, some of what I see on http://www.spaceweather.com is definitely small spots not pixels. If you click on the image of the sun and then enlarge it, you'll see what I mean.

 

Clearly the image you see on spaceweather.com is enhanced when compared to previous record keeping and hence the counting of pixels for given areas. What you may think is a small spot may well say be 60 specks none reaching the 336 pixel limit. I think we can both agreed activity has fallen rapidly.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Yes, activity has fallen, but your source site's 336 pixel limit is an artificial cut off. The patch of black dots labelled 2290 on that image is definitely a sunspot group. And I still don't understand why you wish to keep to results that are equivalent to those obtained by old technology. What's wrong with scientific progress?

Edited February 26, 2015 by Crepuscular Ray