Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

LAST AURORAS OF 2014: Tonight, most likely around the Arctic Circle, someone somewhere will see the last auroras of 2014. Earth's polar caps are aglow with bright Northern Lights as a fast-moving stream of solar wind buffets our planet's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on New Year's Eve. http://spaceweather.com/

Edited December 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

http://vimeo.com/115709379

[Polar Maritime]

Stunning new aurora video captured in 4K ultra high resolution. They ventured out on January 1st in -25F temparatures with an almost full moon and this is what they captured.

 

[Beverley Lass]

Wish it was night and clear with KP currently 6.67.

 

B.

[KyleHenry]

From what we've observed so far from Solar Cycle 24, signs are showing of a continued peak at maximum level from October 2014 to present.

It's still early to make a call but SC24 does appear to becoming a longer cycle in duration than previous cycles. As stated in many papers SC 24 could extend out to 12-14 years.

http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/

An interesting read with logical thinking behind idea.

[Polar Maritime]

[keithlucky]

Geomagnetic storm over Russia what a sight

[Polar Maritime]

Macduff Scotland last night with the slightest of Aurora's appearing for a short time looking over the sea to the north.

 

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET SUN, CONTINUED: Solar activity is very low. Not one of the sunspots on the solar disk is flaring, and as a result the sun's X-ray output has flatlined. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 5% chance of M-class flares and no more than a 1% chance of X-flares on Jan. 21st. http://spaceweather.com/

Edited January 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[keithlucky]

If you want to how little Sunspot activity look at this graph it will continue fall .

Edited January 24, 2015 by keithlucky

[Polar Maritime]

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: A coronal hole surrounding the sun's south pole is spewing solar wind toward Earth. This could cause geomagnetic unrest and auroras around the Arctic Circle on Feb. 1-3: photos.  http://spaceweather.com/

 

Scotland could see Aurora tonight, Perfect clean/clear Air..

 

[damianslaw]

Looking at the graph on the previous page, its very notable how the three low solar minima periods 1985-87, 1995-97 and 2008-2010 coincided with colder winters, whereas the solar max periods 1989-91, 1998-2000 and 2011-2015..have coincided in the main with mild winters (2012-2013 an exception, but look energy nosedived then..). Also notable how the last 2 solar max peaks 2000, 2014 coincided with 2 very wet years..

 

Its more than coincidence I think.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the graph on the previous page, its very notable how the three low solar minima periods 1985-87, 1995-97 and 2008-2010 coincided with colder winters, whereas the solar max periods 1989-91, 1998-2000 and 2011-2015..have coincided in the main with mild winters (2012-2013 an exception, but look energy nosedived then..). Also notable how the last 2 solar max peaks 2000, 2014 coincided with 2 very wet years..

 

Its more than coincidence I think.

 

Not saying that there's no link, but both 78/79 and 81/82 occurred around a cycle max and had more sunspots than the last few years...

[Polar Maritime]

Ackergill beach, Wick, Caithness.

 

[Nouska]

Not saying that there's no link, but both 78/79 and 81/82 occurred around a cycle max and had more sunspots than the last few years...

 

Solar cycle 21 was an active one which had some very sharp dips during the maximum and down slope period. Quite a few of the memorable cold months occurred during or just after these sharp downswings. Maybe coincidence but if the newer theories on geomagnetic activity have any mileage, there might be a link.

 

 

It has been shown from papers linked on the Strat threads that solar activity has an influence on stratospheric conditions -  both the winters you mention had very disturbed vortex patterns due to Canadian warmings in the late autumn/early winter.

Edited February 2, 2015 by Nouska

[Weather-history]

Solar cycle 21 was an active one which had some very sharp dips during the maximum and down slope period. Quite a few of the memorable cold months occurred during or just after these sharp downswings. Maybe coincidence but if the newer theories on geomagnetic activity have any mileage, there might be a link.

 

 

It has been shown from papers linked on the Strat threads that solar activity has an influence on stratospheric conditions -  both the winters you mention had very disturbed vortex patterns due to Canadian warmings in the late autumn/early winter.

As I mentioned before 5 of the last 7 severe winters (sub 2 CET) occurred near or at maxima. Not one occurred at a minimum.

[Yarmy]

As I mentioned before 5 of the last 7 severe winters (sub 2 CET) occurred near or at maxima. Not one occurred at a minimum.

 

 As I understand it the argument mooted is that low solar activity is correlated with Northern blocking, particularly over Greenland. Without looking at the charts for the years you mention, I'd guess that the most severe cold came from bitter Easterlies which of course need the blocking to be over Scandi.

 

I should add that I share your scepticism though. It'd be great if it were true (for those of us who like cold UK winters), because there are tentative signs that we may be entering a sustained period of reduced solar activity (which is interesting anyway, regardless of any NH climate influence).

[Nouska]

As I mentioned before 5 of the last 7 severe winters (sub 2 CET) occurred near or at maxima. Not one occurred at a minimum.

 

Absolutely....and may continue to do so if the cycles stay low or erratic.

 

A look at individual cycles does show a tendency for these cold winters to occur when there is a sharp drop in the activity - in some, maximum is ill defined due to being very weak overall - a figure of around 50 seems associated with some of the very severe winters of early last century.

 

This Berlin table gives a good analysis of stratospheric activity for last sixty years - the SSN is in the first column. The state of the early vortex and the synoptic pattern in place does seem to have a bearing on how the winter pans out.

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

 

The archive of the sunspot cycles.

 

http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/3/1

 

For example, 1906 is technically at maximum but look at the dip just before a cold winter. Again, the dip in 1916 and also a very pronounced drop in late 1939.

 

 

46/47 was definitely at peak - by my definition it should have been the next one along - we don't know what else was going on above as archive doesn't go back that far.

 

[damianslaw]

My post relates to events in the past 30 years - where you can't deny the coincidence, however, yes other cycles haven't been so conducive to the same pattern. I do recall someone posted cycles of yesteryear pre-20th century, many cold periods coincided with low solar activity..

[Polar Maritime]

http://vimeo.com/118678733

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

M2.3 flare early'r from sunspot AR2282 

 

[Polar Maritime]

SUPER SOLAR FILAMENT: It is, arguably, the second biggest thing in the solar system. A filament of magnetism almost 1,000,000 km long is stretching across the face of the sun. Only the sun itself is bigger. Yesterday in the Canary Islands, Frank A. Rodriguez used a Lunt Solar Telescope to photograph the super structure:

This is a solar filament, a tendril of plasma held suspended above the surface of the sun by magnetic forces. Filaments appear on the sun all the time, but this one is unusually large, 5 to 10 times longer than ordinary filaments. If it becomes unstable and erupts, it could hurl parts of itself into space. Pieces of the filament falling back to the solar surface would explode upon impact, sparking a Hyder flare. http://spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

NOAA’s new deep space solar monitoring satellite launches

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150211-NOAA-new-deep-space-solar-monitoring-satellite-launches.html

[Polar Maritime]

Nasa astronaut photographs aurora borealis over Scotland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-31440059