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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

space weather warning issued tonight

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1494

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 27 1859 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Valid From: 2008 Feb 27 1900 UTC

Valid To: 2008 Feb 27 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

:Issued: 2008 Feb 27 1909 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

The Earth may enter a fast solar wind stream emanating from a coronal

hole. The solar wind speed measurement is just below 500 km/s with an

increasing trend. Magnetic field measurements currently show quite

strong excursions of the Bz components.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1494

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 27 1859 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Valid From: 2008 Feb 27 1900 UTC

Valid To: 2008 Feb 27 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for the heads up. We have a few breaks of cloud and a good northerly view!

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt

:Issued: 2008 Feb 28 1800 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction

Center

#

# Geophysical Alert Message

#

Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 February follow.

Solar flux 71 and mid-latitude A-index 11.

The mid-latitude K-index at 1800 UTC on 28 February was 4 (50 nT).

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.

Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

some nice pics from norway re last nights aurora

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_..._1204153892.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

a k-index of 5 this morning biggest for awhile

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05

Serial Number: 603

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 29 0833 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5

Threshold Reached: 2008 Feb 29 0832 UTC

Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Station: Boulder

Active Warning: Yes

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

A K index of 5 was observed at Dourbes on Feb. 28th between 21 and

24UT. While the Earth is since a couple of days within a fast solar

wind

stream, the solar wind speed has risen sharply since yesterday with

current values of about 700 km/s.

for tonight if any one has clear skies up north

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1498

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 29 1541 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1497

Valid From: 2008 Feb 28 0230 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Feb 29 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

Edited by blackdown
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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

and again, missed this earlier

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 624

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 29 1644 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Valid From: 2008 Feb 29 1645 UTC

Valid To: 2008 Feb 29 2359 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05

Serial Number: 625

Issue Time: 2008 Feb 29 2338 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 624

Valid From: 2008 Feb 29 1645 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Mar 01 1200 UTC

Warning Condition: Onset

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

latest news from SIDC thats if anybody reads my posts

:Issued: 2008 Mar 05 1301 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU065

UGEOA 30512 80305 1248/ 9930/

10052 21052 30052

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Mar 2008 until 07

Mar 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 007

PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 018

PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 021

COMMENT: In the absence of any sunspot, we forecast very low solar

activity. The solar wind speed is now very low, but the ACE spacecraft

shows a steady rise of the wind density and magnetic field strength,

which probably heralds the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region

followed by a recurrent fast solar wind stream. This should cause an

increase of the geomagnetic activity on March 6. The geomagnetic field

will then become unsettled to active for 2 or 3 days, with a possible

temporary minor storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I read them, thanks Blackdown; seems awfully quiet at the mo, be interesting to see how this next cycle pans out.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Me too - good to keep up to date with forecasts :)

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

a few warnings from today

GEOALERT BRU068 UGEOA 30512 80308 1155/ 9930/ 10082 21082 30082 99999 PLAIN NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Mar 2008 until 10 Mar 2008 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 015 COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be very low during the next 48 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be active with possible isolated periods of minor storm conditions. The Earth is entering a fast solar wind stream linked to a recurrent coronal hole. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft show strong oscillations of the interplanetary magnetic field since 9 UT. The current readings of the solar wind speed give 400 km/s with an increasing trend.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 1341 Issue Time: 2008 Mar 08 1309 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2008 Mar 08 1308 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Station: Boulder Active Warning: Yes

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2008 Mar 08 1300 UTC Valid To: 2008 Mar 08 1600 UTC Warning Condition: Onset

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 448 Issue Time: 2008 Mar 07 2155 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted Valid for UTC Day: 2008 Mar 09

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

warning from SIDC today

:Issued: 2008 Mar 09 0755 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/MAKalert

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GPS Space Weather Service - MAK model forecast alert #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

The MAK model forecasts a K-index of 6

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1503

Issue Time: 2008 Mar 10 1556 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1502

Valid From: 2008 Mar 08 1746 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Mar 11 1600 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Out of interest, what's the furthest south the Aurora Borealis been seen?

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

Out of interest, what's the furthest south the Aurora Borealis been seen?

Anywhere in th UK is possible.... but they have to be big geomagnetic events that only happen infrequently.

Some displays are particularly spectacular and widespread and have been highlighted in news accounts. Examples include auroral storms of August-September, 1859, Feb 11, 1958, (lights 1250 miles wide circled the Arctic from Oregon to New Hampshire) and March 13, 1989, (the whole sky turned a vivid red and the aurora was seen in Europe and North America as far south as Cuba).

This site will give you a bit more idea. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Photos have been taken of it in Devon but how good it looks to the naked eye I don't know.

We are in a quiet period just now so there's not much in the way of activity further south than about 60°N. :(

Anywhere in th UK is possible.... but they have to be big geomagnetic events that only happen infrequently.

Some displays are particularly spectacular and widespread and have been highlighted in news accounts. Examples include auroral storms of August-September, 1859, Feb 11, 1958, (lights 1250 miles wide circled the Arctic from Oregon to New Hampshire) and March 13, 1989, (the whole sky turned a vivid red and the aurora was seen in Europe and North America as far south as Cuba).

This site will give you a bit more idea. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/

Thanks very much.

Edited by James M
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Photos have been taken of it in Devon but how good it looks to the naked eye I don't know.

We are in a quiet period just now so there's not much in the way of activity further south than about 60°N. :(

Selsey Bill on the beach was always a good spot,whats that 50 N

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

if any clear skies down to the shetlands tonight

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1508

Issue Time: 2008 Mar 14 2354 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1507

Valid From: 2008 Mar 14 1705 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Mar 15 1600 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

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Selsey Bill on the beach was always a good spot,whats that 50 N

Hi Stew,

Like I said, it can be seen that far south, further south sometimes. But we're just coming out of "solar minimum" at the moment (part of a 10 year solar cycle) when there are few sunspots and little solar activity so the chances of seeing anything that far south at the moment is quite slim.

I've not seen one display this winter from up here and I'm looking north over a large sea loch. When there has been activity it's been cloudy up here so no photos yet. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

There's always hopes for tonight though, we have high cirrus with some CU2 around but NOAA is saying the activity level just now is only level 3 (out of 10) so I hope it starts showing signs of doing something in the next few hours. :)

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04

Serial Number: 1509

Issue Time: 2008 Mar 15 1510 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Extension to Serial Number: 1508

Valid From: 2008 Mar 14 1705 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2008 Mar 16 1600 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

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Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

LAtest SIDC

GEOALERT BRU076

UGEOA 30512 80316 0853/ 9930/

10162 20162 30162

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Mar 2008 until 18

Mar 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 008

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2008 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 005

COMMENT: No geomagnetic disturbances and flaring activity is expected

in the near future: the all-quiet alert stays valid. A new tiny active

region (NOAA AR 0986) popped up near the equator in the western part of

the solar disk.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Thanks for that! still looking like a big cycle then and a very busy climb up to solar max! Winter 2011/12 looks like a good one for aurora's then?

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