Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of geomagnetic activity on April 21st as the solar wind continues to blow. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Ronan McLaughlin of Malin Head, Ireland, took this picture during the geomagnetic storm on the 20th April.

 

[Polar Maritime]

NOAA had only a 1% chance of an X Flare yesterday, And then...

 

 

 

X-FLARE, RADIO BLACKOUT: Departing sunspot complex AR2035-AR2046 erupted on April 25th at 0032 UT, producing a strong X1.3-class solar flare and an HF communications blackout on the dayside of Earth. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Solar activity is low. Only a few sunspots are facing Earth, and none has the kind of complex magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

WESTERN SUNSPOTS: Sunspot AR2051 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. The sunspot is not directly facing Earth, which mitigates its threat. However, it is moving to a location that is in some ways even more dangerous than the Earth-facing center of the solar disk. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

Bit late..

Edited May 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

SOLAR 'MINI-MAX': Last month at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, solar cycle expert Doug Biesecker of NOAA announced that "Solar Maximum is here, finally." According to his analysis, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now. Spoiler: It's not very impressive. "This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," says Workshop attendee Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. To illustrate the point, he plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles since 1755:

In the composite plot, Cycle 24 is traced in red. Only a few cycles since the 18th century have have had lower sunspot counts. For this reason, many researchers have started calling the ongoing peak a "Mini-Max."

"By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet," notes Turner. "However, Doug Biesecker has presented several charts showing that most large events such as strong flares and significant geomagnetic storms occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle."

In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity ticked upward on May 24th with the eruption of an M1-class solar flare from sunspot AR2065. Sunspot AR2073 also poses a threat for M-class flares, so the weekend might not be as quiet as previously supposed. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

NOT-SO-QUIET SUN: Breaking a days-long spell of quiet, sunspot AR2077 unleashed an M1-class solar flare this morning. http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

M Flare a few hours ago..

 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

 

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class flare on June 7th to 35%. To see why, click on the image below, and pay close attention to the circled regions:

During the past 48 hours, three large sunspot groups have materialized. Nearly invisible on June 5th, now the active regions are peppered with dark cores larger than Earth. All three regions have unstable magnetic fields that pose a threat for significant eruptions.

The greatest threat comes from sunspot AR2080. Its 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy not only for medium M-class flares, but also for powerful X-flares. Because AR2080 is centrally located on the solar disk, any flares this weekend will likely be Earth-directed. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Kp level 6 Storm currently in progress..

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras as Earth passes through the wake of a CME that struck on June 7th. The initial impact of the CME was weak, but as June 7th turned into June 8th a G2-class geomagnetic storm developed. At its peak, the storm sparked Northern Lights in the USA as far south as Wisconsin:

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

Growing sunspot AR2080 has energy for X-class solar flares. All sun-spots are Earth facing..

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Those groups of spots just blinked into existence? Maybe there's some 'Ooomph' in this cycle yet? 

[Polar Maritime]

Zoltan Kenwell

 

"Here is one from this morning. Shot from inside an abandoned and roofless grain bin! A short but fantastic show! There are a few more here http://photos.infocusimagery.com/p586776135"

Edited June 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Yarmy]

Those groups of spots just blinked into existence? Maybe there's some 'Ooomph' in this cycle yet? 

 

Yes, weak cycles are characterised by sharp variability, e.g SC14:

 

 

So a few years of activity yet to come, I would think.

[jonboy]

This cycle has not shown the extreme peaks and trough's of cycle 14 you are better to compare cycle 5 link below

 

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_1.png

[Yarmy]

This cycle has not shown the extreme peaks and trough's of cycle 14 you are better to compare cycle 5 link below

 

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_1.png

 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the counts for SC5 so a like-for-like comparison without showing the error bands is meaningless really. Certainly SC5 and SC24 are both weak cycles though.

[Polar Maritime]

Not 1... But 2 X Flares today! 

 

 

DOUBLE X-FLARE: Forecasters expected an X-flare today, and the sun complied. The source, however, was unexpected. A new sunspot (AR2087) suddenly emerging from behind the sun's southeastern limb erupted twice, producing an X2.2-flare at 11:42 UT and an X1.5-flare at 12:52. This extreme ultraviolet image from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the first blast:

X-rays and UV radiation from the double flare created a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal propagation of radio transmissions over Europe. Rob Stammes recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID) from his laboratory in Lofoton, Norway: data. Preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's STEREO probes show a bright CME emerging from the blast site, traveling mostly away from the sun-Earth line. No strong impacts are expected.

Before today's double-eruption, forecasters had been keeping a wary eye on sunspot complex AR2080/AR2085. Almost directly-facing Earth, those two sunspots have 'delta-class' magnetic fields that harbor energy for X-flares. The emergence of sunspot AR2087 on the southeastern limb adds another potent source to the mix. Solar activity is high, and likely to remain so in the days ahead. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]