Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://vimeo.com/82688460

 

BREAKING NEWS: NASA SURPRISED BY PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE -- 25 DEC 2013

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF3naveUaBU

 

I must say that I find it very odd that when I post a video the screen shot is never displayed any more ? 

 

Maybe the mods can shed some light on this matter....

 

Use the url given under the "share" tab, below the video.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for the advice BFTV 

Edited December 26, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25517466?utm_content=buffer22b1c&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

The Met Office is to begin offering daily forecasts about the weather in space.

The 24 hour service will aim to help businesses and government departments by providing early warnings of solar storms that can disrupt satellites, radio communications and power grids.

The first forecast is expected to be available next spring.

The Department for Business will support the scheme with £4.6m of funding over the next three years.

The Met Office will aim to develop better ways of predicting space weather in collaboration with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

UK partners involved in the project include the British Geological Survey, Bath University and RAL Space.

[Polar Maritime]

Solar Activity remains very low for what is meant to be the peak of this Solar max...

 

(ALMOST NO) CHANCE OF FLARES: Two sunspots facing Earth (AR1934 and AR1936) have 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong flares. Both sunspots have been quiet for days, however, and they show no signs of an imminent eruption. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited December 28, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Sunspot 1936 has blasted a moderate M3.1 solar flare. The active region is Earth facing..

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

It was certainly along one..

 

[Polar Maritime]

Sunspot AR11936 just released an M6.4 solar flare..

 

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Almost an X! AR11936 just released an M9.9 solar flare..

 

[Polar Maritime]

Just look at the size of the new sunspot group 1943 turning towards us... More big flares on the offering, yesterdays flare clearly reached X, but NOAA are classing it as an M9.9.

 

 

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: 2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash:http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited January 2, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1944, which emerged over the sun's eastern limb on Jan. 1st, is big and potentially dangerous. The complex region contains more than a dozen dark cores, and the leading spot is big enough to swallow two planet Earths all by itself. AR1944 is so large, sky watchers on Earth are beginning to notice it as a blemish on the solar disk at sunset:

 

Indeed, the sunspot has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares on Jan. 3rd. The effect of any flares today will be mitigated by the fact that the sunspot is not yet directly facing Earth. However, even an off-center blast from this behemoth could produce radio blackouts and geomagnetic activity. Stay tuned for developments. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

GIANT SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1944, which appeared on January 1st, is one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. It's so big, people are noticing it as a naked-eye blemish on the solar disk. 

                                                    "Sunspot 1944 was visible at sunrise on January 4th,"

Although the sunspot has been relatively quiet and stable since it first appeared on New Year's Day, a region of this size has the potential to produce significant activity. Indeed, NOAA forecasters, who say they are keeping a close eye on this behemoth, estimate a 75% chance of M-flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 4th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

CME, POSSIBLY INCOMING:

 

FLARES LIKELY TODAY: Giant sunspot AR1944 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for potent Earth-directed eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 5th. http://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited January 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

Worth a look... 

 

http://vimeo.com/79902085

[Polar Maritime]

A strong M7.2 solar flare was just observed around sunspot 1944... Which is directly facing Earth.

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

 

LINK TO Dr Strongs TALK AT NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on 6 December:
http://mediastream.ndc.nasa.gov/publi...

[Polar Maritime]

 A major X1.2 solar flare just !

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

On Stargazing Live, there's a very strong green aurora about 200 miles north of Tromso, visible despite the presenter being indoors with some studio lights. Here's hoping it will head south!

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for the reminder CR, some nice live footage now from Norway, wish i was there ! Hopefully the UK may see something over the next week...

 

X-FLARE HUGE SUNSPOT TARGETS EARTH:  Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth.  http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

An early CME prediction model has been released following the X1.2 solar flare. The model is predicting the fast moving CME to deliver an almost direct blow to our geomagnetic field late on January 8th (Wednesday), early January 9th.

 

[lfcdude]

An early CME prediction model has been released following the X1.2 solar flare. The model is predicting the fast moving CME to deliver an almost direct blow to our geomagnetic field late on January 8th (Wednesday), early January 9th.

 

 

 

What are chances of seeing anything? 

[Crepuscular Ray]

Depends on both the cloud cover tomorrow (natch) and whether the interplanetary magnetic field is aligned north or south when anything hits: see

http://www.spaceweather.com

for information about this, as well as predictions/near realtime updates of where the aurora might be.