Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

 

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

 

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

 

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

 

This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

 

The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

 

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers.

 

Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

Edited September 17, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[joggs]

NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers.

Should solar activity continue to mirror that which was observed from 1795 to 1820 then it’s possible that our weather could be similar too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

Paul Hudson,Joe bastardi's right hand man lol

[snowking]

I am beginning to keep my own records of 10.7cm Flux and the SESC solar count

 

 

Very limited data obviously at present, but it has been really rather quiet in the last 10 days - though a sudden increase yesterday with 5 new regions observed

 

SK

 

EDIT: Apologies for some reason the key is missing - blue is the SESC count, green in flux.

Edited September 18, 2013 by snowking

[jonboy]

 

Paul Hudson,Joe laminate floori's right hand man lol

 Joggs are you trying to infer this is incorrect if so I suggest you go and read what Geoff Sharpe on the Laymans Sunspot Count site has to say and look at his peer reviewed paper on the suns modulation by Uranus and neptune. This is important work because if true it may well lay to rest the arguements about manmade warming and the likely shift into a much cooler climate within the next 5/10 years which we are not ready for.

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET SUN: Today is another day that seems more like Solar Min than Solar Max. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun are quiet, and solar activity is low. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Polar Maritime]

 

QUIET SUNSPOTS: Near the center of the solar disk, growing sunspot AR1850 directly faces Earth. However, like all the other spots on the sun today, AR1850 is quiet and not flaring. The chance of a geoeffective flare today is low. http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Yarmy]

While I hesitate to criticise anyone for even attempting a solar cycle prediction, Mausumi Dikpati's wiki entry does make me smile:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati

 

"Dikpati's prediction in early 2006 was that the next solar cycle ('Cycle 24') would begin in late 2008 and would be 30%-50% stronger than the previous cycle ('Cycle 23'). While her onset timing prediction for cycle 24 has already been validated, amplitude of cycle 24 is yet to be verified in late 2014."

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

WEAK MAX: The weakest Solar Max in 100 years continues today with another 24 hours of quiet. None of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun are actively flaring. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 5% chance of M-class solar flares.http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BaHukFEg30

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGp9iySzhWg

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oayt_jizNA

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbdzhHkF_Bw

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkubaa6nNu8

 

CME IMPACT, GEOMAGNETIC STORM : Arriving a little earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 2nd at approximately 0200 UT. The impact sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras across Canada and several northern-tier US states. Alan Dyer sends this picture from Gleichen, Alberta: http://www.spaceweather.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9MIKPPJXCo

 

Also.

 

IT’S A MISERABLE morning and people seem to be feeling a bit blue so we thought we’d share these incredible snaps of the Aurora Borealis, seen in Donegal last night, to lift your spirits.

The images were taken by photographer Adam Rory Porter near Buncrana in Inishowen, Co Donegal. He said we’re due an even bigger display over the next 24 hours so if you’re in the area, keep your eyes to the sky.

(All images: Adam Rory Porter)

 

 

http://www.thejournal.ie/article.php?id=1111916

Edited October 4, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W0-k9fQWTI&feature=youtu.be

 

The Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, were spotted over St. Cloud, Minnesota late Tuesday night. A freelance videographer captured the light show in the town of St. Cloud. (Oct. 2)

Edited October 5, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YjCIoPHT0U&feature=youtu.be

[keithlucky]

Interesting to see what happens next ?http://t.co/5wBjm2o2aX

 

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkOJrmXnqM8

 

At long last... a noteworthy solar flare to report. A moderate eruption measuring M2.8 was just detected around sunspot complex 1864-1865 in the southeast quadrant. This image by SDO/EVE captures the flare.

http://www.solarham.net/index.htm

 

 

Edited October 9, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPLW3LoM1C8

[Polar Maritime]

Activity is now starting to pep up with another M class flare early'er on the far side, so want effect Earth, there are currently 138 sunspots for which Sunspot AR1865 has the energy for X class flares, notice how the sunspots are in the Southern hemisphere, we could be looking at the 2nd Peak in the predicted cycle in the coming few months.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MK9QWjAqTc

[Don]

Activity is now starting to pep up with another M class flare early'er on the far side, so want effect Earth, there are currently 138 sunspots for which Sunspot AR1865 has the energy for X class flares, notice how the sunspots are in the Southern hemisphere, we could be looking at the 2nd Peak in the predicted cycle in the coming few months.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MK9QWjAqTc

 

Great!!  Just in time for Winter, although I suppose this is a 'low' solar max?

[joggs]

Is that the end of the double dip the experts mentioned?.

[Polar Maritime]

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1861 is pointing directly at Earth and crackling with C-class solar flares. Bigger eruptions could be in the offing. The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that could erupt at any time. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Oct. 12th. http://www.spaceweather.com/