Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[kar999]

Someone is getting a rather good aurora show at the moment! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

Scandanavian sky/webcams might be worth looking at.

http://pl.wehrle.ws/plcams2.htm

Not sure if that's the aurora on the Abisko cam?

[Mondy]

Another G2 Geomagnetic storm underway. Quite a coronal hole this one.

Solar wind is above 650km/s, with the Bz currently just point north. KP is at 4, but if that Bz dips sharply, expect at least KP6 later..

Couple of images from yesterday's aurora over Iceland/Scandi: http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01nov07.htm

[mettalfabrik]

monthly report from SIDC

:Issued: 2007 Dec 01 1107 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #

# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for

November 2007 : 1.7 (one point seven)

Maximum : 10 on 16, 24 // Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for November 2007 :

1.. 0 6.. 8 11.. 0 16.. 10 21.. 0 26.. 7

2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 9 22.. 0 27.. 0

3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0

4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 10 29.. 0

5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 8 30.. 0

61 cooperating stations on December 1, 11 UT

Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last

provisional value, calculated for May 2007 : 8.7 (+-5%)

SM CM SM CM SM CM

2007 Jun 7 4 2007 Dec 4 1 2008 Jun 2 8

Jul 6 0 2008 Jan 3 2 Jul 2 10

Aug 6 1 Feb 3 3 Aug 3 12

Sep 6 1 Mar 3 5 Sep 3 13

Oct 5 1 Apr 2 6 Oct 3 16

Nov 4 1 May 2 7 Nov 4 18

SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's

standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to

35% (last month)

CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique

coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard

curves, due to K. Denkmayr.

ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term

Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.

G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan,

103

[Mondy]

We have a big 'un on the eastern side.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

Edited December 5, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

From Space Weather.com

EMERGING SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's eastern limb and it could be a big one

I coulda told them that yesterday http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Ramp away!

I reckon on a satellite bustin', power line burnin', earth based fryin' mother of a solar max......

any advances?

No chance! Everything Ive read suggests a quiet cycle which ties in nicely with Landscheits prediictions as we move into the Gleissberg Minima. Things is gonna cool big time I tells ya!

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[jethro]

Anyone fancy reading this then translating it into numpty language that even I would understand?

http://www.omatumr.com/abstracts2007/20071...d_Ratcliffe.pdf

[Mondy]

Anyone fancy reading this then translating it into numpty language that even I would understand?

http://www.omatumr.com/abstracts2007/20071...d_Ratcliffe.pdf

Why don't you ask over on the new Solar Cycle 24 message board? Prof Svalsbard may be able to help you

Edit: Link (( )) http://solarcycle24.forumco.com/default.asp

Edited December 6, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Look at the size of this dude!!!!!!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Look at the size of this dude!!!!!!

Nice, hopefully. As it's on the solar equator is it a remnant of cycle 23, rather than an early indication of cycle 24?

Edited December 6, 2007 by Wibs
Removed image to save space :)

[Mondy]

Back to solar minimum for a moment.

This year we've been tracking a 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers to help spot trends that may indicate the bottom of the solar cycle. Here are the 3-month averages since December 2005:

Dec 05 40.6

Jan 06 32.4

Feb 06 18.1

Mar 06 27.7

Apr 06 38.5

May 06 39.7

Jun 06 28.9

Jul 06 23.3

Aug 06 23.5

Sep 06 21.2

Oct 06 24.1

Nov 06 23.1

Dec 06 27.3

Jan 07 22.7

Feb 07 18.5

Mar 07 11.2

Apr 07 12.2

May 07 15.8

Jun 07 18.7

Jul 07 15.4

Aug 07 10.2

Sep 07 5.4

Oct 07 3

http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2007/12/07/101/?nc=1

It just gets lower and lower

Edited December 7, 2007 by Mondy

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Anyone fancy reading this then translating it into numpty language that even I would understand?

http://www.omatumr.com/abstracts2007/20071...d_Ratcliffe.pdf

I think its suggesting our solar system is the product of our sun going supernova 5 billion years ago and that our sun now has a collapsed neutron dense supernova type core.

It suggests, evidence is gleaned from analysis of the composition of solar system chemistry, nuclear decay products, overabundance of light elements in the solar wind and photosphere, the barycentric orbital cycle of the solar system inducing a gravitational torque on the sun which in turn coincides with the sunspot cycle (it stops short of saying its the reason why there are sunspot cycles) and hence induced climatic variation on earth.

mmmm. Tenuous methinks.

ffO.

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'far side' images seem to be a load busier than of late. Are we starting 24 now???

(courtesy of space weather)

[Mondy]

Hi mate.

I think there's been a few glitches recently with the far side instrumentation. I mean, the big sunspot currently on the disc wasn't showing far side a few days ago..

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi mate.

I think there's been a few glitches recently with the far side instrumentation. I mean, the big sunspot currently on the disc wasn't showing far side a few days ago..

Hiya back atcha!

Glitches? could they be picking up on surface 'irregularities' tied in with the new cycle? I suppose we won't have long to wait to see if the come around 'Earthside' though! Some are quite high up (latitude wise) and I thought things started back up around the equator?

Ho Hum.

[Mondy]

The glitches were mechanical, i think.

The big new sunspot (978) is still a Cycle 23 spot. Very strange indeed to have one so big at the end of a cycle. There have been a couple of higher latitude spots recently, infact one was so high, it was near the top, but they last a day or so, and fade away. Think it's transition period between 23-24. Even the solar flux is at 80, which is real good! Was as low as 64.4 last month, although the sunspot count of 29 will aide the flux etc..

Edited December 8, 2007 by Mondy

[Crepuscular Ray]

Hiya back atcha!

Glitches? could they be picking up on surface 'irregularities' tied in with the new cycle? I suppose we won't have long to wait to see if the come around 'Earthside' though! Some are quite high up (latitude wise) and I thought things started back up around the equator?

Ho Hum.

It's the high-latitude ones that are new-cycle and equatorial are now old-cycle. But, whatever, it's still been very, very quiet.

Edited December 8, 2007 by crepuscular ray

[Mondy]

I note on the environment section mention of Cycle 24 appearing. It hasn't. Nobody even knows. Astrophysists don't even know yet. All the recent sunspots are still cycle 23.

I really do urge you to read or register with the new solar cycle 24 discussion forum - there's people in there who know what their talking about

LINK

[Mondy]

The first C-class flare since August this year has occured. Nothing special, but it shows big sunspot 978 is capable of producing something.

[shuggee]

This made me chuckle:

[Mondy]

Too true, Shug.

I can't recall the K or A index ever being so flat.

K index of 1 or 2 is usually quite normal. However, for history's sake, below is a zero reading on both K and A indicies

It was taken at midday today - changed already to K2/A2..

[Gray-Wolf]

I note on the environment section mention of Cycle 24 appearing. It hasn't. Nobody even knows. Astrophysicists don't even know yet. All the recent sunspots are still cycle 23.

I really do urge you to read or register with the new solar cycle 24 discussion forum - there's people in there who know what their talking about

LINK

That'd be me then!

Seems strange when we've had the hardware measuring the suns activity for over a cycle that we haven't spotted a 'backward sunspot' (to my limited knowledge) mid cycle before until now!

Shall we agree that this is a somewhat 'novel ' end/beginning to a cycle?

That there 'glitch' is a persistent beggar! (thanks spaceweather!)

Edited December 10, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

I do agree that it's a crazy ending to cycle 23.

What you also have to remember is that all the sunspots which have been visible for days over the past 12 months or so have ALL been on the equator of the Sun, even the small backward spot of last year.

The sunspot count is currently 42, it had been around 0 for three months.. This is only due to sunspot 978,nothing else. It doesn't mean the heralding of 24. Until high latitude spots start forming and staying, subsequently registering on the sunspot count, then expect the number to be zero again soon.

Plus, the magnetic poles haven't flipped yet - they do that at the height of max and min.

[Mondy]

Lo and behold!!!

Cycle 24 looks to have arrived!! Yeah Incredible!

Left side, high latitude, very much large enough to confirm this is the first Cycle 24 spot. It's too big to just suddenly disappear like many tiny ones recently.

24 hours from now things should be a lot clearer.

Here's another view. It's a C24 spot. Mark this day in your diary!

[Mondy]

Arrow to indicate.

Edited December 10, 2007 by Mondy