Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Mondy]

And does all this lack of activity not tie in nicely with the predicition that we are about to go into the Gleissberg minima?

I'd be interested in BFTP's thoughts on this.

Infact Viking and/or BFTP have a read of post no.551 on this page. The last paragraph ties in with your thinking also.

Damn good read that post, btw!

[Guest Viking141]

Cheers Mondy, thanks for that.

[mettalfabrik]

latest from SIDC

:Issued: 2007 Nov 12 1330 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

GEOALERT BRU316

UGEOA 30512 71112 1252/ 9930/

10122 20122 30122

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Nov 2007 until 14

Nov 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 001

PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 011

PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 017

COMMENT: The sun is quiet and expected to remain so. Late 13 november

the arrival of the high speed stream from the equatorial coronal hole

should increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled, with an occasional

active period, persisting through 14 november.

[Mondy]

I think i shouldv'e put yesterday's posting in here. They tie up better with the alert http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1100268

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...t&p=1100286

[jethro]

I don't know anywhere near enough about Solar cycles to comment but I came across this the other day, have a look at the ALERT, I'd be interested to hear everyone's thoughts.

http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html#alert

[Mondy]

Have read that link, Jethro. It's like most things cyclical. Nobody really knows!

This means a minimum earliest in October 2008 and latest in July 2009

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[jethro]

Have read that link, Jethro. It's like most things cyclical. Nobody really knows!

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Thanks for that Mondy, wait and see I guess.

[Mondy]

Jethro.

We may get a more sound response from scientists much more clued up than we are

http://www.a-free-guestbook.com/guestbook....me=solarcycle24

Most recent post - you'll see the link you provided on here..

Edit: Some real good posts on there, which might give some of the AGW guys and gals are run for their money! Scroll through the previous messages..real insight.

Edited November 12, 2007 by Mondy

[jethro]

You're a little star. I check into that site fairly regularly, lots of interesting stuff, wonder what they'll make of that link.

[Mondy]

We got a reply, Jethro http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

[jethro]

So we did, blimey that was quick! Doesn't appear that they have much faith in the theory though, guess time will tell; curious times eh...

[Mondy]

It's about now that the solar wind has picked up (just short of 600km/sec).The Bz is currently steady, after pointing north for a while earlier today.

The Oct 25/26 event in higher latitudes (just north of mainland UK) occured with the wind speed as it is now, with the Bz managing to tilt south for an hour or so - more than enough time for millions of particles to be released in to the magnetsophere, with the fast solar wind helping to reach earth's atmosphere.

K index is currently at 3, which is nothing for us, but it's better than 1

The coronal hole above (marked thanks to Space Weather) is almost a carbon copy of the Oct 25/26 event. Long and meandering.

All eyes on that solar wind and Bz people!

Edited November 13, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Solar wind now well above 600 km/s, but the Bz is pointing north and K index is still 3. Oh, come on! A quick dip south would be nice, with the wind increasing and Kp reaching 6 to 7...we can hope! Plus, it's gonna be clear here tonight..

[Mondy]

Scandanavia got a good show last night: http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery...mm07gek68iihf77

As for us, think the slim chance of ever seeing KP6 + is over...

[jethro]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/...71113142105.htm

[mettalfabrik]

latest from SIDC

GEOALERT BRU321

UGEOA 30512 71117 1205/ 9930/

10172 20172 30172

99999

PLAIN

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 17 Nov 2007 until 19

Nov 2007

PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 008

PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 013

PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Nov 2007 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 012

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low during the next 48 hours.

A new active region, NOAA AR 0974 appeared close to the central

meridian, but it is unlikely to produce any significant flaring

activity

above the B level. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet

with possible isolated periods of unsettled conditions by the end of

November 18th due to the recurrence of a coronal hole.

[Mondy]

Are We There Yet?

[Gray-Wolf]

Are We There Yet?

Eh up Matey!

Makes you wonder with such a long and drawn out crawl to solar min whether the max will be correspondingly extreme. I know they are predicting this max to be the most active in our observations of the sun but I never expected the min to be so long and low. Didn't you post a 'backwards sunspot' last spring indicating the end of solar min? yet here we are ,half a year on, still waiting for things to pick up!

Even more excited about the prospects of solar max now for sure!!!

[Mondy]

Didn't you post a 'backwards sunspot' last spring indicating the end of solar min?

I sure did! Here's the link again.

Also, just last week a tiny sunspot emerged (then disappeared!) on the northern hemisphere of the sun. This also apparently suggests that cycle 23 is ending and 24 is on the way.

In truth i don't think ANYONE knows yet whether 24 has started.

Some also say Cycle 24 might be a bit of a damp squib!

Our peak sunspot prediction for cycle 24 is significantly smaller than cycle 23, with peak sunspot numbers predicted to be 42 ± 34. These predictions suggest that a period of quiet solar activity is expected, lasting until ∼2030, with less disruption to satellite orbits, satellite lifetimes, and power distribution grids and lower risk of spacecraft failures and radiation dose to astronauts. Our model also predicts a recovery during the middle of the century to more typical solar activity cycles with peak sunspot numbers around 120

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/596/

Never trust models though!

Edited November 18, 2007 by Mondy

[kar999]

Extreme Max, Quiet Max?..... feels like we're in the Model Output discussion topic!

Maybe we should start a Cycle24 ramping thread!

[Gray-Wolf]

Extreme Max, Quiet Max?..... feels like we're in the Model Output discussion topic!

Maybe we should start a Cycle24 ramping thread!

Ramp away!

I reckon on a satellite bustin', power line burnin', earth based fryin' mother of a solar max......

any advances?

[mettalfabrik]

just got this email notification from swpc

not quite sure what it means, as its the first time since i signed up for their e-mail warnings,that i,ve received this type

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD

Serial Number: 86

Issue Time: 2007 Nov 19 1823 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

Observed: 2007 Nov 19 1811 UTC

Deviation: 11 nT

Station: BOU

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am going for cycle 24 to be quieter still than 23. 23 was much quieter than was expected by some but not by others [theodore Landscheidt for example]. We are heading towards a Gleissberg minima of Maunder proportions and this delayed start are early signs of the 'quiet' 24

BFTP

[Mondy]

Currently KP of 6

Coronal hole causing it. Wind speeds aren't so fast as read CH's, but the Bz is dipping well south at the moment.

A KP6 would mean visible aurora around north highlands/Inverness. Shame the skies are grey

MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 6 REACHED)

http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/2

Check out the proton event - almost off the scale at 16z. Someone is getting a rather good aurora show at the moment!

G2 moderate geomagnetic storm also underway: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index....omagneticStorms

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)

Edited November 20, 2007 by Mondy

[Mondy]

PS, haven't seen the Bz component pointing so sharp for ages!

Well, it was lower 10mins ago!

Edited November 20, 2007 by Mondy