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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    We all made it through the night then....... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.png

    I was never in any doubt we wouldn't.... it's not Dec 2012 yet!! :rolleyes:

    Whoa!

    post-131-0-80280800-1331295104_thumb.jpg

    Too bad it is daylight and cloudy though..

    Yep I had the email alert at 07.21 for Aurorawatch UK this morning.

    Edited by kar999
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    The most recent magnetometer data shows our magnetic field is now in the latter stages of recovery after a period of severe storming, but storm conditions (min Kp5) are likely to continue as Ace has recorded -Bz for almost the full day. We have no more information on how the wind speed is performing since the 9am update but it's safe to assume that it will be very fast.

    I would not be surprised if middling US states like California or Nevada got to see some kind of auroral activity in the northern skies. Once the yanks have got up and had their weetabix the pics will surely come flooding in.

    Edit: Not weetabix, its golden grahams.

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    golden grahams, more like pancakes with lots of source our maccys :-P... What time isit in usa? Shouldn't. There be up soon? The pics bbc news had was nice from finland with the day time aurora

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    I was asking myself 'what if the recent storm period had occurred around our dark hours instead of over the USA, how big would the negative deviation be on the Scottish magnetometer? And how far south over the UK would the aurora have went?

    To find the answer I need to find out what the peak negative deviation (dst) was on a magnetometer that is placed at a similar magnetic latitude as the uk device. A good candidate would be a magnetometer located in Newport, Oregon as the storm peaked close to midnight PST..

    The H- component (top) gives us the comparative figure we need.

    post-12654-0-47251500-1331305291_thumb.g

    It looks to be somewhere around -400nT. So the answer to my 'what if' would be that there would have been aurora overhead across Scotland and northern England and visible in the northern sky from all UK locations and even across the channel.

    As the recent storm peaked quite close to our noon meridian, we only detected around -200nT as geomagnetic storming is always weaker on the day-side of earth.

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    lol I too thought the pics coming out from Finland were taken in the daytime, but then it clicked in my mind that the exposure shots were taken short-mid length and what we actually see on the BBC video is the glare of the full-moon casting upon the clouds & snow.

    A clever effect by the videographer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    lol I too thought the pics coming out from Finland were taken in the daytime, but then it clicked in my mind that the exposure shots were taken short-mid length and what we actually see on the BBC video is the glare of the full-moon casting upon the clouds & snow.

    A clever effect by the videographer.

    Yep I was watching the Scandinavian aurora webcams, I posted the link last night, and even though it was around midnight the moonshine made it look like daytime.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    News update from the SWPC from yesterday (8th)

    Just adding this in as a point of interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Earlier on I was checking out various k-indices for the current geomagnetic storm. Between 07:00 and 10:00, the BGS magnetometer in Devon recorded K9. This is as high as the k-scale goes leaving no doubt that we are in the wake of quite a large geomagnetic disruption.

    We remain under minor geomagnetic storm conditions but there are now clear signs that the cme has finally passed and we are under the effects of it's trailing high speed wind stream. A bit like the vacuum effect felt after an express train hurtles past when standing at the platform.

    Through the course of the afternoon the IMF has gradually weakened and the negative Bz has slackened off to a mostly neutral state. The solar wind speed is also gradually dimming but should remain above 500km/s this evening (currently 600km/s). This higher than normal wind speed will be enough for minor storm episodes provided that there are sustained periods of negative Bz observed on Ace.

    The southerly extent of visible auroral activity under such conditions would be around 54N (Lakes, Yorkshire etc). The likely characteristics of tonight's aurora from the UK would be a quiet band or arc that's green in colour, very different to what the Americans would have seen only a few hours ago!

    This forecast is likely to change in the event of the IMF strength (Bt) rising above 10nT but at the moment I don't expect that to happen.

    Edit: The current UK magnetometer measurement (-60nT) is indicating that auroral activity is further south than usual right now as we draw closer to our night hours. With a neutral Bz recorded on Ace the 'nT' may linger somewhat at around this value or if a persistant -Bz occurs in the next one to two hours there will be a small chance of minor sub-storm activity making aurora visible on the horizon at 53N. This additional part only applies until the UK magnetometer closes the gap between the black and blue line to under -20nT.

    post-12654-0-65547300-1331316224_thumb.g

    post-12654-0-80820900-1331318795_thumb.p

    News update from the SWPC from yesterday (8th)

    youtube

    Just adding this in as a point of interest.

    I really like the way this guy makes a valiant effort in keeping things as simple as possible, it's too easy for the masses to get lost in all the solar related jargon that get's tossed about these days.

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    What I find quite surprising, is that throughout this episode of higher activity, the sun flux hasn't exceeded 140!

    Maybe because apart from 1429, the other sunspots are on the quiet side.

    Do you think that solar activity will drop to quiet levels as soon as 1429 leaves the visible side of the sun, or is it the beginning of a more active period?

    Karyo

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE

    Kp Index is at level 5

    Scale of G1

    Minor

    Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

    Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.

    Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels.

    post-2721-0-79910300-1331325062_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Both visibility and cloud cover have been good around my neck of the woods so I had to go out and see the table scraps of this geomagnetic storm. There was visible aurora from here in Ayrshire between 19:45 and 20:15 as a green band rising to around 25-30 degrees above the horizon. It didn't move much during the observation period.

    Current data from the UK magnetometer suggests that the quiet green glow should be visible above the northern horizon down to 54N.

    Bz on Ace has been mostly neutral with positive interludes so the peak southerly extent of tonight's aurora is unlikely to be visible at latitudes below 54N, assuming conditions remain unchanged through the latter part of this evening.

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE

    Kp Index is at level 4

    post-2721-0-22068600-1331329971_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Cloud has rolled in again after clear skies before sunset. I should be inside the the line of visibility but no chance with this murk.

    All part of the charm of the great british weather!

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Clouds parted in the briefest window here, nothing seen however to the north other than dark skies and a few stars.

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

    Huge flare showing on left side of solar disc. Could this be a new activity area for the next week....

    post-10773-0-38003900-1331333086_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London
  • Location: Tornado Alley, west London

    Yes, an active area coming round the edge of the Sun there will will cross its face over the few days. How active it might be will become more obvious over the next day or so, but that flare looks promising.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Huge flare showing on left side of solar disc. Could this be a new activity area for the next week....

    post-10773-0-38003900-1331333086_thumb.p

    It looks like moderate to strong solar flares are going to continue striking earth bound non stop for several days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    ANOTHER CME TARGETS EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%. Aurora alerts: text, phone.


    The same eruption that hurled the CME toward Earth also produced a monsterous tsunami of plasma on the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the shadowy but powerful wave rippling away from the blast site:


    Posted Image


    The tsumani was about 100,000 km high and raced outward at 250 km/s with a total energy of about 2 million megatons of TNT. Such waves often underlie CMEs like the one en route to Earth now.


    Animated forecast tracks show that the CME will also hit the Mars Science Lab (MSL) spacecraft on March 12th followed by Mars itself on March 13th. Mars rover Curiosity onboard MSL might get some

    as the cloud passes by.
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    The same eruption that hurled the CME toward Earth also produced a monsterous tsunami of plasma on the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the shadowy but powerful wave rippling away from the blast site:

    The tsumani was about 100,000 km high and raced outward at 250 km/s with a total energy of about 2 million megatons of TNT. Such waves often underlie CMEs like the one en route to Earth now.

    Wow! There have been a few occasions in the past where we have witnessed solar tsunamis but this one is definitely one of the most prominent to date.

    The analysis of the cme that's en-route and it's anticipated earth effects has differing opinions between different forecasters. On NOAA's detailed nightly forcast they initially went for kp4-7 but then corrected this to kp4-9. With a prediction that wide It's going to be hard for them to be wrong. A few other space weather forecasters are following NOAA's steps in keeping the prediction wide open. Belgium space obs go for a minimum of kp7 and arrival late 11/03 or early 12/03 (they are alone in this late prediction). Noaa anticipate the cme arrival during the first half of Sunday. GSWC agrees with this window of time.

    My initial prediction yesterday morning was for a Sunday AM arrival time and a minimum of kp6. I doubt we will see kp9, but a 7 is possible and 8 would be very nice indeed!

    It all hangs on when storming occurs and peaks. If it peaks over our skies then the chance exists for visible auroral activity across all of the UK. Exactly how far south it becomes visible can be predicted with a more reliable accuracy soon after impact.

    Lasco c3 movie showing the earth directed cme. The noise on the imagery is caused by protons striking the sensor, it affects the ability to detect faint cme's (like this one). There are however several signatures confirming that this is a full halo event.

    Posted Image

    The sunspot that has recently appeared over the limb has been numbered 1432. It was the recently responsible for a C9.7 flare. C-class flaring is likely and M-class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours.

    1429 has gradually split more and more apart since it's flaring episode began several days ago. There remains potential for X-class flaring particularly from around the leading penumbra.

    Today's sun

    post-12654-0-99294200-1331378197_thumb.j

    Several days ago I gave a brief mention to a large mid-latitude coronal hole that would be earth facing this weekend. I was well off the mark with the date on that one probably due to my attention being with the high solar activity from elsewhere. This large CH 'will' be earth facing on Tuesday and Wednesday and it's wind stream will arrive on Friday/Saturday next week. Minor-moderate storm periods are likely during the wind influence with a planetary kp of 5. Sunspot 1432 is located very close to this CH.

    post-12654-0-42233700-1331378511_thumb.p

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Incoming CME For 11th March 2012

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    How do a few extra cosmic-ray particles 'enhance' earthquakes, Yamkin?? Do you have any particular mechanism in mind?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Yet another strong flare from 1429 at 5.30pm tonight, this one measuring M 8.4. A super bright cme can be seen departing at the moment. It will be a few more hours before any prediction can be made as to potential geomagnetic storm severity but from what's available to me it looks like a near perfect direct impact, no question about it. What I would like to try and establish is whether the core of the cme is earth directed.

    post-12654-0-18088800-1331408514_thumb.j

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Rather than trawl the entire thread is it possible someone is kind enough to explain some of the technical references in the posts.

    KP ?

    C Class

    M Class

    Thanks in advance !

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    How do a few extra cosmic-ray particles 'enhance' earthquakes, Yamkin?? Do you have any particular mechanism in mind?

    The strength of Sun’s magnetosphere modulates how much cosmic radiation reaches the atmosphere.

    In 2007, an experiment by the Danish National Space Centre in Copenhagen, using a particle accelerator, found that cosmic rays, colliding with molecules in the atmosphere produce substantial amounts of ions and release free electrons (Based on cloud experiments, but proved cosmic ray penetration). Cosmic ray variations correlate with geomagnetic storms, which changes the ionospheric currents and triggering of seismic activities. The mechanism of the cosmic Sun-Earth connection on environment of the Earth has been established by correlation studies of cosmic ray variation with geophysical variables of the Sun.

    Some useful links:

    http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/08/does-solar-activity-influence.html

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/27jul_spacequakes/

    Edited by yamkin
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