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Posted
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and stormy.
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire

    Bz just went -Bz hope it stays this way to get a chance at 53N.

    Edit: then goes up again...........

    Edited by Del Trott
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    The information on my last post with regards to UK latitude aurora potential has changed a little bit now!

    Based on current conditions, southern regions of the UK are potentially back in the fold again as a result of the IMF more than doubling in strength at 19:20. We have a strong positive Bz in correlation with the increased IMF strength but should any sustained period of southward magnetic orientation (-Bz) occur will now have enough energy to draw the aurora even further south.

    I'll repost this little Bz graph as we're on a new page, bear in mind that you have a 30 minute lead time during periods of -Bz.

    Posted Image

    Link to UK magnetomer

    http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

    Simple guide to using the magnetometer for spotting aurora.

    http://forum.netweat...28#entry2138328

    Ace graph showing IMF

    http://www.swpc.noaa..._SWEPAM_2h.html

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Link to Scandinavian Aurora webcams... though it looks like there is a lot of cloud and moonlight pollution.

    http://pl.wehrle.ws/plcams2.htm

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Pinxton, Derbyshire (115M ASL)
  • Location: Pinxton, Derbyshire (115M ASL)

    When is best time to see these. I have noticed people say around midnight

    Chris

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    When is best time to see these. I have noticed people say around midnight

    Chris

    Not an easy one to answer. The general consensus is +-1hour around midnight as this is the time (in general) when the aural oval is at its most southerly extent in the Northern hemisphere. However, the timing of a CME's arrival is critical and if there is al local substorm this can further complicate matters.

    At my lat. I've been directly under a full corona and the display was mindblowing. The real surprise was this happend about 7.00pm not long after it got realy dark. The storm subsided but conditions got better around midnight and there was another fantastic, very dynamic pulsing show about 2.00am. The short answer is, keep looking because local conditions and CME arrivals vary and a substorm can happen at virtually any time.

    Of course, everything is dependant on good viewing conditions.

    Edited by frogesque
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    At least Yahoo News is not painting a doomsday scenario with this realistic and useful news item on this "potentia' event.

    A refreshing change from some of the Armagedon hype by the media and some over excited thread postings.

    http://uk.news.yahoo...ern-lights.html.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Some encouraging signs looking at the trend of Bz between 20:20 and now. No longer a strong northward orientation, also a strong but momentary southward spike at 20:40, more of them thanks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Clouded out here ... thin enough to see the moon though it and some breaks but not looking good... damn.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

    I don't really understand any of this space weather jargon - never really learnt about it before but it does seem interesting. What I do know is that I would absolutely love too see this thing. What are the chances of that this far south ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    The Midlands, and even Southern England, is not beyond the reach of seeing the Northern Lights but it needs a reasonably strong Geomagnetic storm and favourable visibility i.e lack of cloud and preferably not a full moon! Low green glows on the northern horizon are more frequent rather than full blown overhead displays at our latitudes.

    Edit:: Looks like I'm clouded out for the rest of the night irrespective of whether there is an increase in activity later. Activity seems pretty slack now anyway. Time for some zzzzz's rather than skywatching.... again!

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

    Thanks for that. But real cloudy here too, as always.

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    It's actually crystal clear here, but as there are towns & cities surrounding my area, I can't see anything apart from a few stars and a full moon. :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

    Skies are clearing here now, moon is visible, and in my area it's pitch black behind my house.. not sure if this is the best time to view them or not? Well, we'll see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Cloud killed any remote chance here brief clearance at around one before it piled back in. So nothing too see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS

    Kp Index is at level 6

    Scale of G2

    Moderate

    Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

    Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

    Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.

    post-2721-0-12032100-1331278942_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Kp at 6 and Bz now showing -10. Not much use for the UK but looks like it will be a brilliant show for Canada and N. America.

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    At least Yahoo News is not painting a doomsday scenario with this realistic and useful news item on this "potential' event.

    A refreshing change from some of the Armagedon hype by the media and some over excited thread postings.

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS

    Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

    Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

    Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.

    We all made it through the night then....... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    We all made it through the night then....... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.png

    I didn't, last thing I remember was sitting down with a brew around half past nine, then I must've dozed off because next thing I knew it was 4am, burnt out from a couple of hectic days!

    Looking back on the graphs it's clear to see that this geomagnetic storm is still rolling. Periods of negative Bz started to appear on the ace graph soon after 1am and as a result, by 3am we were experiencing moderate to major geomagnetic storming over the UK.

    At 5am the Bz element of the IMF turned strongly southward and has stayed there since, the result being periods of major to severe storming over the UK. Strong negative deviation is now apparent on magnetometers around the world and this weakening magnetic field component is a signal of very strong geomagnetic storming and the auroral activity that comes with it will be visible at mid-latitude locations on the night side of the earth.

    A fair to good chance that this disturbance will continue for at least 12-18 hours before completely subsiding, so the possibility remains for minor or moderate geomagnetic storm episodes once it gets dark in the UK.

    Also to note is a flare measuring M6 from sunspot 1429 this morning, it's been mentioned that there is a cme released during the event but I know little else as I've not seen any iimages as yet.

    post-12654-0-09058700-1331284413_thumb.p

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS - UPDATE

    Kp Index is at level 7

    Scale of G3

    Strong

    Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

    Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

    Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent.

    post-2721-0-84094400-1331284799_thumb.gi

    post-2721-0-53127800-1331285363_thumb.pn

    Edited by yamkin
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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Any chance this awful dull grey cloud will lift?

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Looking at the Oval projections it seems even places south of 53N have a shot at seeing something, albeit N.America and Canada for the time being. I've got my fingers crossed that the 'snapping back' of the magnetosphere in relation to the CME is still going on 9 hours from now and when darkness begins to set in.

    Fingers crossed this ridge of high pressure builds in long enough to hold the cloud layer away.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Still catching up here!!! Had a peek at the available data on the current storm and there is an interesting development that has come to my attention. :)

    As can be seen on the graph below, we are now under even faster solar wind conditions. the data up to 9am shows a wind speed spike at 8am and is bouncing around 950km/s. This sort of wind velocity is not going to subside completely before UK dark hours so there's a high confidence of more geomagnetic storming tonight. Don't forget about that big unknown, the Bz and it's potential influence. It's something that nobody can forecast, especially events like this one where we probably have 2 cme's inter-mingling with one another as they pass by.

    post-12654-0-46265600-1331286046_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS - UPDATE

    Kp Index is at level 7

    Scale of G3

    Strong

    Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

    Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

    Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent.

    post-2721-0-84094400-1331284799_thumb.gi

    post-2721-0-53127800-1331285363_thumb.pn

    I could swear that red font gets bigger every time.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Looking at this morning's M6 LDE flare, the culprit was indeed 1429. This AR is positioned very nicely near the centre of the sun, any cme activity around centre disk tends to be aimed well in our direction. There is a cme as a result of the flare visible on stereo B imagery as a wide eruption (N/S) It takes off at a fast pace probably between 1200km/s and 1500km/s. Lasco c2 is showing a bright component of the eruption heading northwards but there is very likely to be a cloud of matter heading right for us. If the estimated speed is correct then we should expect a spell of at least moderate geomagnetic storming (Kp6) upon it's arrival during the first half of Sunday.

    1429 has shown a reduction in areal coverage since this morning's M6 flare but remains large and capable of further strong flares.

    Today's sun

    post-12654-0-72979300-1331295475_thumb.j

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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