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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Data is patchy but you can see that the solar wind speed has shot up from 430km/s to 580km/s in a short space of time.

    Confirmation of a second cme impact at 12.00 GMT. This is the arrival of the cme released during the X1 flare on 5/03.

    post-12654-0-72106100-1331144320_thumb.g

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just put my batteries on charge..... Hopefully conditions will be perfect for the UK.

    Thanks for the updates GeorgeWX & Yamkin.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Mine are on charge too!

    Ditto with thanks for updates

    I know beggars can't be choosers but there will be a very bright near full moon tonight. Skies will need to be really clear for decent pics.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    I'm assuming whatever is hitting ACE isn't the X-5 in question, given we only have a hours heads-up warning from ACE at best. There's a nice coronal hole however to the south of the sun which in itself has led to some aurora sights across the Northern Hemisphere.

    Still I keep my 'eyes on the prize' as the X-5 and following X-1 should be enough to see something here south of Manchester.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
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    Posted
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and stormy.
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire

    Isn't the full moon going to put a damper on viewing auroras for the uk tomorrow besides the weather :( hope im wrong and get to see something..

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Isn't the full moon going to put a damper on viewing auroras for the uk tomorrow besides the weather :( hope im wrong and get to see something..

    Yep that damn full moon, it'll be in the way for the rest of this week, I think towards the end of the week it will rise later in the evening. Tomorrow's geomagnetic storm should bring aurora bright enough to overpower moonlight, tonight it really will be a big problem to anyone going out for a look.

    Whats the chances in Leeds obviously out of city ?

    Well now we know that the second cme (X1) arrived at 12pm today, a little earlier than what would be ideal for us in the UK. We have virtually no mechanism available for advanced warning of favourable conditions (as we would normally have) so it's all down to what the magnetometer tells us. At the moment aurora may be visible to 55N and this opportunity should continue to exist for a few hours yet (speculation). It is possible that this opportunity could extend southward to 53N in the coming 3-4 hours (optimism), the only way to know is to keep a close eye on the magnetometer as all other data sources are pretty much useless.

    Tomorrow should bring even more intense geomagnetic storming upon the arrival of the cme related to the X5 flare, fingers crossed for an afternoon arrival time!

    NOAA's detailed analysis and space weather forecast at 22:00, it'll be a cracker!

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and stormy.
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire

    Yep that damn full moon, it'll be in the way for the rest of this week, I think towards the end of the week it will rise later in the evening. Tomorrow's geomagnetic storm should bring aurora bright enough to overpower moonlight, tonight it really will be a big problem to anyone going out for a look.

    NOAA's detailed analysis and space weather forecast at 22:00, it'll be a cracker!

    Thanx GWX... I may get out to somewhere dark if all is well but will check for updates from you guys to keep up with the updates as they are much appreciated.

    1429 is not quite earth directed yet so maybe more to come!!

    Edited by Del Trott
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Full moon and 91% cloud cover forecast for me for tomorrow night. Another golden opportunity looks set to be scuppered by the weather.

    I can but hope for a few breaks in the cloud but over the many years I've been watching aurora the rare occassions of extreme activity have been all too often spoilt by the Great British weather.

    Doen't look too promising for much of the Country... but good luck.

    Forecast cloud cover midnight Thursday/Friday 8/9 Met Office

    post-1596-0-78937500-1331158467_thumb.gi

    Any more detail from NW cloud cover forecast maps?

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

    Yup.. our lovely, variable weather to the rescue. :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Just put my batteries on charge..... Hopefully conditions will be perfect for the UK.

    Thanks for the updates GeorgeWX & Yamkin.

    You are very welcome Polar Maritime. I have built up my survival supplies over a year now where budget permits and I too have got my batteries on charge right now.

    Croydon council have their emergency preparedness plans in place and are being briefed with up-to-date bulletins. I'm sure other authorities across UK are prepared or preparing.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    I can but hope for a few breaks in the cloud but over the many years I've been watching aurora the rare occassions of extreme activity have been all too often spoilt by the Great British weather.

    A true statement, I've lost count of the number of times that cloud has moved in and stole the show.

    Thanx GWX... I may get out to somewhere dark if all is well but will check for updates from you guys to keep up with the updates as they are much appreciated.

    My advice at the moment is to hang fire on that, all it would take is a reasonable sub-storm to draw the aurora south by a couple hundred miles. I wrote a simple to understand guide on using the magnetometer to work out if the aurora is near you on a previous page of this thread, you can read it here.

    NOAA's nightly is out and boy it's a big one (lots of words), but they have completely failed in my opinion. There is no mention whatsoever of the second cme shock observed today and they attribute the first cme arrival (3.30am) to the X1 flare of 5/03. No explanation of why the solar wind shot up to 580km/s, not even acknowledging that it happened, very poor. My guess is they decided early in the day that the first cme impact was the X1 and published analysis stating so, then when realising they might be wrong they decide to stick with it to save face and avoid admitting they are wrong. Just a possibility as it's happened before.

    Alternative link to NOAA's solar and geophysical activity report for March 07 here

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    Full moon and 91% cloud cover forecast for me for tomorrow night. Another golden opportunity looks set to be scuppered by the weather.

    I can but hope for a few breaks in the cloud but over the many years I've been watching aurora the rare occassions of extreme activity have been all too often spoilt by the Great British weather.

    Doen't look too promising for much of the Country... but good luck.

    Forecast cloud cover midnight Thursday/Friday 8/9 Met Office

    post-1596-0-78937500-1331158467_thumb.gi

    Any more detail from NW cloud cover forecast maps?

    Here you go kar - tomorrow night midnight:

    post-1217-0-10218700-1331161983_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    I'd imagine the national grid will be opening up the electricity lines althroughout the next 24hr period as this storm moves on through. A couple of light 'surges' here at home suggests this process is/was already underway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    You are very welcome Polar Maritime. I have built up my survival supplies over a year now where budget permits and I too have got my batteries on charge right now.

    Croydon council have their emergency preparedness plans in place and are being briefed with up-to-date bulletins. I'm sure other authorities across UK are prepared or preparing.

    Emergency measures have been put in place to ensure copies of the Daily Mail are delivered to newsagents... even though the power will be out so they cant use their electric tills!! :whistling:

    Panic buying of bottled water underway!! :help: <------- oops!!! I cant use that emotican... I'll get electrocuted. ;)

    EDIT : Thanks for the map Shuggee. Someone might get lucky. :)

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Clear sky here in devizes, should i have a chance later? Our to far south

    There is only minor activity at the moment. Tomorrow night should be the big CME impact with more chance of activity at lower latitudes..

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    Space Weather brings potential geomagnetic storm to Earth - MetO

    There has been an increase in activity on the Sun over recent days with a number of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) taking place. A high energy X Ray flare was released from the Sun early this morning, and this has sent a very fast CME towards the Earth at speeds up to 2000 km per second. At present this is expected to reach the Earth from Thursday morning...............http://metofficenews...storm-to-earth/

    Edited by yamkin
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire
  • Location: East Ayrshire

    Clear sky here in devizes, should i have a chance later? Our to far south

    There is only minor activity at the moment. Tomorrow night should be the big CME impact with more chance of activity at lower latitudes..

    Spot on Kar, geomagnetic conditions at the moment are active to minor storm over the UK. Negative deviation on the UK magnetometer is -38nT (at 23.30) and is persisting at this level. Maximum negative deviation so far during UK dark hours was -65nT at 8.30 pm and was brief.

    Thanks for the NW map Shug :)

    Edited by GeorgeWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    You are very welcome Polar Maritime. I have built up my survival supplies over a year now where budget permits and I too have got my batteries on charge right now.

    Croydon council have their emergency preparedness plans in place and are being briefed with up-to-date bulletins. I'm sure other authorities across UK are prepared or preparing.

    Hmm, I doubt a flare of this magnitude is cause for concern unless you're a satellite mate?

    I highly doubt your survival gear will be needed tomorrow :p

    Worst case scenario, we all go to see Bear Gyrlls. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Posted Image
    They came from outer space--and you can have one! Genuine meteorites are now on sale in the Space Weather Store.

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by yesterday's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME's forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

    Mild geomagnetic activity is already underway following a lesser CME impact on March 7th. Shortly after the cloud arrived, a burst of Northern Lights appeared over the US-Canadian border. Shawn Malone photographed the display from the shores of Lake Superior:

    Posted Image

    "I was lucky to catch this brilliant outburst of aurora activity that was very active for close to an hour," says Malone, who has also made a time-lapse video of the display. "The aurora had no problem shining through the moonlit skies."
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    The media are all over it this morning, typically:

    Strong solar storm could disrupt flights and power grids, Nasa warns

    A huge solar storm is expected to hit Earth later, with Nasa warning it has the power to disrupt power lines, satellite navigation systems and flight paths.

    The magnetic storm, the largest in five years, has led to a ‘massive amount of solar particles heading towards Earth’, the Met Office also confirmed. Commenting on the potential disruption caused by the explosion on the surface of the Sun, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), a spokesman for the Met Office said: ‘Part of our role is to advise the government and relevant industries about the potential impact of events such as this, so we have advised the aviation and energy industries.

    ‘Airlines may re-route planes from near the polar regions as that is where the storm would be most intense and the National Grid could also be affected, but they will take action to limit any risk.

    Posted Image

    ‘It should arrive some time this morning and last through the day. In terms of what that means from the public's point of view, there's an increased chance of aurora borealis or Northern Lights being seen if conditions are right and the skies are clear.’

    A statement from Nasa said the two bursts of solar wind heading towards Earth were travelling at 1,300 miles per second and 1,100 miles per second respectively. The solar storm is expected to last until the end of the week, with Nasa confirming it was monitoring situation and had determined that, at present, the storm was not a concern for the six astronauts aboard the International Space Station.

    http://www.metro.co....s#ixzz1oVtMTmQi

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