Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Crepuscular Ray]

I still think they're exaggerating, and a movie of a non-Earth-directed solar flare (that was weaker than the Earth-directed one that didn't have any notable effects a couple of weeks ago) and a pretty weedy CME accompanied by doom and gloom music doesn't inspire me with much confidence in their prediction. We'll see either way in a day or so, anyway.

[GeorgeWX]

Hi Yamkin

I suspect your source might be getting unnecessarily excited - that flare and CME were not Earth-directed, as the active region was just over the solar limb as seen from here, and are unlikely to affect us. The Stereo craft (can't remember whether it's A or http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.png that's that side of the Sun might notice, but its controllers have had plenty of warning and can take precautions.

crepuscular ray, My source is Space.com This is an update

I think both of you are right. Yes this movie is on space.com and it does say that this event could 'light up northern skies' and the title does say that satellites will be affected.

At the moment there is a R1 radio blackout but this is relatively minor (we had several of these during 2011). I really don't see the cme released during the flare reaching our magnetosphere, it was a wild miss, Venus should take a direct hit though. The chances of northern lights as a result of this eruption are almost zero.

Edited March 3, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[karyo]

You're not wrong Karyo, remember things went quieter somewhere around the start of Decenber, and here we are at the start of March, the lowest NOAA sunspot number of just 22 on Wednesday followed by two days at 24. The region responsible for the recent M3 flare that CR has just mentioned is likely (on it's own) to boost sn above 60 and flux above 120.

So are we near the end of a three month solar depression, the ending of which would be marked with a peak that was higher than the previous peak we had a few months back, or are we really entering a long quiet solar spell reminisent of the Dalton cycle. We'll know the answer for sure by the end of the year.

The new sunspot appearing over the eastern limb is a very active and compact region. Already we see the M3 flare and cme yesterday but was still behind the limb when this occured. Just in the last few hours has the full active region revealed itself. The next 24 hours we should expect multiple C-class flares with more M-class flaring possible. An isolated X-class flare can't be ruled out.

Yes George, let's see what this sunspot brings and most importantly whether it's the start of a more active period or a one off.

The solar flux is at 108 now according to spaceweather.com but that should rise in the next 24 hours.

Karyo

[yamkin]

Amazing Loops From The New Active Region 1429 4th March 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKJzGhnH3ZY

[yamkin]

Long Duration M-Flare And Bright CME 4th March 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VexNj186R30

[GeorgeWX]

Most recent solar flux is at 116 and todays sunspot number is 54.

The last 24 hours we see multiple C class flares and one LDE M class flare all coming from 1429. Out of all the flares we see two cme's, the first involved a long filament connected to 1429 and the eruption was concurrant with a low C class flare. The second cme is the result of the M2 flare and left the solar surface at a quick pace, possibly 1000km/s. The first cme looks like a miss, it does look like the edge of the second cme will brush past us according to the most recent Lasco c3 images, a very wide eruption considering the blast location at 65E.

During the next 24 hours there will continue to be multiple C class flares from 1429 with a continued possibility of M class flaring and maybe even X class flaring. There is also likely to be the odd C class flare from 1428 during the next 24 hours as this region has shown some recent development.

1429 and new sunspot region

Today we see an earth facing coronal hole positioned in the southern hemisphere. The wind stream from this CH will likely arrive at earth late on Tuesday and unsettle our geomagnetic field with a possibility for active periods, I don't expect UK latitude aurora from this event alone but combining with a possible flank hit from the above mentioned cme, there may be a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storming during Wednesday and maybe into Thursday (best wait and see what the experts say on that one!!!).

CH506

Beyond then and worth note is a very large mid-latitude coronal hole that is emerging over the eastern limb today. If this CH maintains it's size and structure when it becomes earth facing on Saturday/Sunday, it will inflict minor geomagnetic storming once it's wind stream arrives on 13/03 or 14/03.

Side on view of the sun from Stereo B showing CH on limb

Today's sun

Edited March 4, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/ Some nice action here tonight.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Sunspot 1429 has been letting off a series of flares overnight, the biggest of which so far is an X-1 at 4.10 UTC. The CME currently visible on Soho images appears to result from an earlier event.

As the spot is still not fully Earth-facing, the probability is that any CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetosphere.

Edited March 5, 2012 by crepuscular ray

[GeorgeWX]

Sunspot 1429 has been letting off a series of flares overnight, the biggest of which so far is an X-1 at 4.10 UTC. The CME currently visible on Soho images appears to result from an earlier event.

As the spot is still not fully Earth-facing, the probability is that any CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetosphere.

The cme relating to the X class flare can be seen on Lasco c2, still nothing on c3. However there is no doubt about this one hitting us sometime during Wednesday.

Now things become interesting as we are already expecting a small disturbance from a CH stream and a glancing hit from the M2 flare cme. All solar forecasters predict minor storming late tomorrow or during Wednesday as a result.

Adding the cme from the X class flare into the mix will cause a long duration active geomagnetic field starting late on Tuesday with repeated minor to major storm episodes through Wednesday and into Thursday. In terms of planetery KP we should see a six or seven. As for geomagnetic storming locally we could see the k-index reach 8. During such conditions aurora would be visible across pretty much all of the UK and Ireland.

NOAA space weather forecasters will publish their thoughts tonight at 10pm.

Below is a movie of the blast seen from Lasco c2. Two cme's can be seen leaving the surface, the first comes from a C class flare and the second from the X1 flare.

Edited March 5, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Magnetic StormRadiation Storm Watch 6th March 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbuYLR7_o6Q

[GeorgeWX]

Today's sunspot number is 70 and solar flux at 8pm was up to 132.

'Hyper' active region 1429 has continued to flare aggresively since the X1 event this morning with 12 seperate flares in 12 hours, 2 of which managed to reach M-class territory. You would think that this AR would gradually decay as a result of repetitive flaring, but nope 1429 is now looking large and very dangerous. By that I mean that severe flaring (X5+) is a real possibility during the next 24 hours as this region has incredible potential due to it's strong and compact magnetic structure. By far the angriest looking sunspot so far this cycle!

Further M class flares are likely from 1429 during the next 24 hours.

Movie of 1429 development. (3Mb)

Now in are the Lasco c3 images showing the cme relating to this morning's X1 flare speeding away from the sun. There is clear confirmation that earth is well within the trajectory of this cloud but the bright core of the cme will miss. Spaceweather.com reports that Nasa's GSWC has predicted a miss which in my opinion is either poor judgement or communication.

Lasco c3 movie of X1 flare cme (3Mb)

At the moment we have favourable conditions for aurora to be visible as far south as 57N, maybe down to 55N in the coming hour due to a strong southward Bz. Nice clear skies out there so maybe worth a look. Tomorrow night should hopefully bring aurora viewing opportunities to 54N provided the cme relating to the M2 flare arrives in time, otherwise it will be Wednesday night where aurora viewing opportunities may present themselves across a good chunk of the UK.

If you aren't going to get the chance to take a look then don't despair as there is a good chance of more cme activity from 1429 that could bring aurora to the UK this weekend.

Today's sun

Edited March 5, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Crepuscular Ray]

Solar flux remains at 120 and there have been M-class flares overnight.

Horizon tonight (9 p.m. BBC2) is about the possible effect of solar storms: the title is Solar Storms - the Threat to Planet Earth, so it may be veering towards the dramatic side of things. The blurb sets the tone...

"There is a new kind of weather to worry about, and it comes from our nearest star.

Scientists are expecting a fit of violent activity on the sun which will propel billions of tonnes of superheated gas and pulses of energy towards our planet. They have the power to close down our modern technological civilisation - and in 1989, a solar storm cut off the power to the Canadian city of Quebec.

Horizon meets the space weathermen who are trying to predict what is coming our way, and organistions like the National Grid who are preparing for the impending solar storms."

[Weather-history]

David Hathaway has not come out of this very well.

Firstly he predicts the next solar cycle would be a strong one

NASA March 2006

"This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958."

"Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011."

"he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007�and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.""

NASA March 2006

That forecast is what provoked Dr. Hathaway at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center to bet Dr. Gilman that solar cycle 24 was going to come on quickly in 2006 because it was going to be so strong - perhaps the strongest solar cycle on record.

NASA Dec 21, 2006

"Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one."

"Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco

According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years�which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history."

Dec 14, 2007 NASA

It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

NOAA April 25, 2007

"The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March [2008] and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 � up to a year later than expected � according to a forecast issued today by NOAA�s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts"

NASA July 11, 2008

"The sun is behaving normally. So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway."

"There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

"some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year."

"It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last."

November 7, 2008, NASA

"After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life. "I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center."

"From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned. Even with its flurry of sunspots,the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days.

I remember posting this. whats the latest from David Hathaway?

[lorenzo]

Horizon is pretty good some nice imagery, just managed to catch the re-cap of the 28th October event from 2003 I think.

Re:Above 1429 looks pretty fearsome.. can never get these small movies to play for some reason?

[yamkin]

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT

A powerful solar flare greater than X5.0 is currently in progress

http://www.solarham.com/index.htm

****EXTREME PROTON ALERT****

[toggerob]

X-5 just erupted as Yamkin also reports..spaceweather..

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X5-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1429. The blast peaked on March 7th at 00:28 UT. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible.

I watched the Horizon documentary earlier and was quite surprised to see the UK national grid opens up all the channels during times of major flare eruptions. I always assumed the safest option, in the event of a major flux, was to shut the entire grid down altogether.

[Polar Maritime]

Sun unleashes huge solar flare; possible Earth-bound solar storm

By Jason Samenow

Between 7 and 8 p.m.Tuesday night, the sun spit out a large, X5-class solar flare. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center called it “one of the largest solar flares of the current solar cycle.â€

X class flares are the strongest category of solar flares. According to NASA, they can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

These flares are often complemented by phenomena known as coronal mass ejections (CME) which are essentially bursts of solar wind. If a CME is directed towards the Earth, a geomagnetic storm results that can interfere with the Earth’s magnetosphere.

NOAA said predictions for this particular flare/CME event “are still being refined.â€

SpaceWeather.com wouldn’t draw any conclusions about where the CME might go.

“First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth,†it said.

Its “best guess†was that CME probably won’t directly head for Earth, but rather produce a “glancing blow†on March 8 or 9.

Here’s a video from NASA showing the flare:

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rWB-lhUj-8&feature=youtu.be

: Right at midnight UT time the active region 1429 unleashed a powerful X5.4-class solar flare. Edited March 7, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[yamkin]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS

Kp Index is at level 6

Scale of G2

Moderate

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.

[GeorgeWX]

Very exciting stuff this morning, as mentioned above we have a moderate geomagnetic storm in progress and some recent severe flaring from monster region 1429.

Ace detected the arrival of a cme at 3.30am this morning. Statistics below.

Peak mag field - 20nT

Peak wind speed - 430km/s

Peak wind density - 26 p/cm3

This event has arrived with a relatively low wind speed which leans toward this being just the cme from the M2 flare arriving. If that is correct then we should see another cme shock recorded at ace by the end of the day, the second shock from the X1 flare cme.

It has also been an incredible 24 hour period in terms of flare activity and flare intensity from 1429.

At 12.20am a flare reaching X5.4 on the x-ray flux was measured, and a second strong flare measuring X1.3 was observed just one hour later.

Looking at SDO and a handful of stereo cor2 images, both flares have eruptions and both eruptions look to have decent earthward components. The eruption relating to the X5 flare is probably travelling well in excess of 1500km/s (fast!) the second eruption at just 1000km/s (still fast!).

If my prediction of speed and geo-effectiveness are correct then we should expect this one to arrive tomorrow and impact with a wind speed in excess of 700km/s. We should also see several magnetometers around the world recording severe storm periods throughout the passage with a planetery KP of seven, possibly eight. I expect there to be a long duration geomagnetic storm due to the X1 flare cme eventually arriving late tomorrow or early Friday.

Active x-ray flux, mainly due to 'popcorn'sunspot 1429

Edit. Forgot to add that the most recent measurement of AR1429 comes in at 1700 millionths. I need to go look in some books but I suspect this to now be the largest sunspot since at least 2003, possibly 2001.

Edited March 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS - UPDATE

Kp Index is at level 5

Scale of G1

Minor

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.

[GeorgeWX]

Lasco c2 and c3 movies showing the cme relating to the X5 flare speeding away.

Lasco c2 (900kb)

Lasco c3 (2.8mb)

And today's sun

The arrival time of this morning's cme shines light on one aspect of forecasting aurora, that an anticipated cme can arrive at 4am UK time with moderate storming (good enough for UK latitude aurora) and yet die down by the following evening. The western half of Canada and North West US states would have seen a brilliant display of NL as it peaked during their night hours but we here in the UK missed out. The same could happen with the next anticipated cme.

Putting that aside, if the cme from the X5 flare hits us during tomorrow afternoon or early evening, then that's near enough perfect for us in the UK as the storm is likely to peak some time during our dark hours. If this peak occurs four hours either side of midnight UK time, then I expect all UK latitudes to see aurora provided that considerations are made to weather and light pollution where you are.

[yamkin]

Lasco c2 and c3 movies showing the cme relating to the X5 flare speeding away.

Lasco c2 (900kb)

Lasco c3 (2.8mb)

And today's sun

The arrival time of this morning's cme shines light on one aspect of forecasting aurora, that an anticipated cme can arrive at 4am UK time with moderate storming (good enough for UK latitude aurora) and yet die down by the following evening. The western half of Canada and North West US states would have seen a brilliant display of NL as it peaked during their night hours but we here in the UK missed out. The same could happen with the next anticipated cme.

Putting that aside, if the cme from the X5 flare hits us during tomorrow afternoon or early evening, then that's near enough perfect for us in the UK as the storm is likely to peak some time during our dark hours. If this peak occurs four hours either side of midnight UK time, then I expect all UK latitudes to see aurora provided that considerations are made to weather and light pollution where you are.

Update from Solar24 indicates that the full halo Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to impact Earth directly on March 8th 2012

Edited March 7, 2012 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

Update from Solar24 indicates that the full halo Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to impact Earth directly on March 8th 2012

Ahh good they agree with me!

I see on their website they refer to a relatively new cme prediction tool. Now there's no doubt that this cme will hit, but there has been so many occasions in the last few months where Enlil was well off the mark, both with cme direction and anticipated wind speed/density. I do hope they refine it to improve accuracy but for the now I don't use the data it offers due to it's reliability.

NOAA have posted their prediction at 15.18 and go for KP7, they believe that the cme will impact tomorrow 'early morning GMT'. If they are correct then it implies that the cme is travelling at more than 2000km/s... From the sun to earth in 24 hours is a real rareity.

On this morning's post I suggested a likely planetery KP of 7 or 8 during the passage of the X5 flare cme, It's worth mentioning that a KP9 is possible especially if the storm peaks during dark hours in the US, where the majority of magnetometers responsible for the 'planetery KP index' are located.

Edited March 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS - UPDATE

Kp Index is at level 6

Scale of G2

Moderate

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes

SOLAR RADIATION STORM - UPDATE

Scale of S3

Strong

Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

[GeorgeWX]

SOLAR RADIATION STORM - UPDATE

Scale of S3

Strong

And this radiation storm is causing problems with the data recorded on Ace, it means that any further cme impacts will be much harder to detect until conditions settle.

I said earlier today that the cme detected by Ace at 3:30am was probably the cloud relating to the M2 flare because of low wind speed. Data is now trickling in from another Nasa satellite that strongly suggests the X1 flare cme has arrived.

Data is patchy but you can see that the solar wind speed has shot up from 430km/s to 580km/s in a short space of time.

Edited March 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX