Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[GeorgeWX]

The sunspot number has risen slightly to 33, solar flux at 111.

Newly numbered sunspot group 1416 continues to undergo rapid development. For most of today it has been bubbling with B and low C class flares, one of (B9.9) was concurrent with a visible CME on Lasco c2 earlier this evening, this sunspot region is currently well positioned for earth directed activity.

As more imagery of the eruption comes in the source can be confirmed as well as speed and direction.

The source of the eruption mentioned on last night's update was an unstable filament at the front edge of old sunspot 1407. This region has now been numbered 1417 by NOAA.

Movie showing the eastern side of sun and how fast 1416 has developed over the last 48 hours.

AR1416.mpg

AR1416.wmv

Today's sun

Edited February 10, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Both flux (110) and sunspot number (62) are rising in response to the return of old sunspot 1402 as well as other newly formed active regions.

Fast growing sunspot 1416 located near centre disk decided to calm down after 3 days of rapid expansion. There has only been C class flaring from this region and this is likely to continue, there remains potential for M class flaring from 1416.

AR1417 still comprises of only small spots but the total count is getting larger. Around a dozen C-class flares from this inconspicuous region since the last update, the largest at C8. Further C class flaring likely.

1418 is a newly forming region to the east of 1416 and has been quiet so far.

1419 is the new number assigned to old sunspot 1402. During the last rotation about a month ago, this sunspot was responsible for multiple flares, some of them powerful. It was also responsible for two mid-latitude geomagnetic storms. The areal coverage of the sunspot has decreased since it's previous transit but clearly remains a magnetically complex region. There has been regular C class flaring which is likely to continue and a good chance of M class flares, possibly even X class.

New region 1420 is located south of 1419 and has been quiet so far.

Both of the previously mentioned filament eruptions (look to 09/02 and 10/02 updates) may brush past earth on valentines day. There is a lot of disagreement between forecasters about whether we will feel any effects from these blasts because of cme direction and source of the eruption(s). I think the first eruption will arrive with a stronger punch than the second, said punch will not be strong however with potential for only minor storm periods making auroral activity likely for 57N+ and possible for 54N+.

There is a high chance of one of more earth directed cme's sometime during the next 7 day period so more aurora spotting opportunities may just be round the corner.

Today's sun

Edited February 12, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for the update WX

Weather conditions look very good for next weekend, so fingers crossed.

[Polar Maritime]

Some very nice recent footage from Norway.

http://vimeo.com/36141149

[picog]

Thanks for all the updates WX.

Is the solar maximum still expected next year, or have we been there already?

[GeorgeWX]

Early yesterday morning around 4am, Nasa's Soho satellite recorded a rapidly increasing wind density, peaking at 30 p/cm at 6am, this is likely to be related to the 09/02 cme. The very low wind speed and magnetic field strength associated with the cme meant that geomagnetic storming only occurred at high latitudes.

This morning at 7am, Soho shows what could be the arrival of the cme that left the sun on 10/02. Wind speeds had risen sharply to 400km/s and a proton density of just 17 p/cm3. Through the course of the cme passage the magnetic orientation of the solar wind has been predominately southwards making the geomagnetic field unsettled and providing conditions favourable for aurora. Despite this, and taking all current measurements into account, aurora is likely to be visible at latitudes above 57N, possibly 56N as we go towards midnight.

Solar activity has most definitely gone quiet during the last 48 hours, the background x-ray flux has been at a stable B2 level for most of today (pic below). Regions 1416 and 1418 have shown a reduction in activity, 1419 and 1420 have been quiet. Solar flux at 8pm was down slightly to 107 and sunspot number at 59.

Today's sun

All quiet

Thanks for all the updates WX.

Is the solar maximum still expected next year, or have we been there already?

Nah I don't think we're there yet. It could be the case that solar max happens around mid 2013 according to the most popular predictions. It is known that the quieter cycles are typically longer in duration compared to active cycles. For that reason I wouldn't be surprised if solar max happens during 2014 or even 2015.

Edited February 14, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[picog]

All quiet

Nah I don't think we're there yet. It could be the case that solar max happens around mid 2013 according to the most popular predictions. It is known that the quieter cycles are typically longer in duration compared to active cycles. For that reason I wouldn't be surprised if solar max happens during 2014 or even 2015.

Thanks WX, could be some time to go yet then.

Edited February 15, 2012 by picog

[GeorgeWX]

Our geomagnetic field remains unsettled-active due to persisting negative Bz. Periods of minor storm activity possible during the next 2 to 3 hours bringing visible auroral activity to regions north of 55N.

[Liam J]

An increase in geomagnetic activity being picked up during today, possibility of visible Aurora over the coming nights.

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

[GeorgeWX]

Did anyone in Scotland or Ireland hazard a look last night? The aurora was visible low on the horizon at around 11pm, it wasn't immensely bright but there was a clearly defined arc from NW to NE.

[karyo]

The solar flux has now fallen to 105 sfu. Another small drop and we will be below 100 soon.

Karyo

[SteveB]

The solar flux has now fallen to 105 sfu. Another small drop and we will be below 100 soon.

Karyo

Hi Karyo,

SF dropped to 99 around a week ago. Hasn't been above 110 for a while, looks like the monthly average will be below Jans continuing the slow decline

[karyo]

Hi Karyo,

SF dropped to 99 around a week ago. Hasn't been above 110 for a while, looks like the monthly average will be below Jans continuing the slow decline

I hope so Steve. I find this quiet period quite encouraging.

I am missing your posts here about the spotless sun (2008).

Karyo

[GeorgeWX]

Well today was the day that I was expecting flux to hit 160, and that was based on the rapid growth of 1416 soon after it emerged plus the imminent return of 1402 and finally the re-emergence of 1408. What has happened is 1416 stalled then decayed without any cme activity, 1402 (now 1419) appeared half the size it once was before decaying itself and losing nearly all it's magnetic structure and new sunspot 1420, the largest spot on the earth side of the sun is a boring single polarity region not capable of much activity.

The latest solar flux measurement is 103 and sunspot number of 41, this could be a win for the coldies!!!

There's no doubt that the monthly's will take a hit. I'd say between April and December 2011 we were trending slightly above the cycle prediction which (i think) was for smoothed sfi of 140 and sunspot number of 85, so a bit of quiet doesn't instantly mean it's maunder time, but it does mean that those who re-amended their predictions based on the rapidly rising activity during 2011 might be considering a re-reamend?

'Once hopeful' 1416 is due to disappear over the limb today and 1418 is not far behind, flux will take a hit possibly sub 100. Old sunspot 1408 is re-emerging today on the eastern limb and labelled 'New1' on today's sun.

A reasonably sized, middle latitude coronal hole was earth facing yesterday (pic below). The high speed wind stream emitted will pass us on 19th and 20th February influencing our geomagnetic field with potential for minor storm periods. Aurora likely north of 57N and possible north of 54N should minor storming occur.

Coronal hole (16/02).

Today's sun.

Daily sunspot, SFI and AP.

Edited February 17, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[karyo]

Well today was the day that I was expecting flux to hit 160, and that was based on the rapid growth of 1416 soon after it emerged plus the imminent return of 1402 and finally the re-emergence of 1408. What has happened is 1416 stalled then decayed without any cme activity, 1402 (now 1419) appeared half the size it once was before decaying itself and losing nearly all it's magnetic structure and new sunspot 1420, the largest spot on the earth side of the sun is a boring single polarity region not capable of much activity.

The latest solar flux measurement is 103 and sunspot number of 41, this could be a win for the coldies!!!

There's no doubt that the monthly's will take a hit.

'Once hopeful' 1416 is due to disappear over the limb today and 1418 is not far behind, flux will take a hit possibly sub 100.

That sounds good to me!

Imagine if we see a spotless day in the near future! Oh, I can dream...

Karyo

[GeorgeWX]

A high speed wind stream from the earth facing coronal hole (16/02) has now arrived. Based on current data minor storm periods will be likely tonight and the influence duration may exceed 24 hours.

There's a high chance of auroral activity north of 57N and possible as far south as 54N during the coming hours.

A weakening magnetic field is the best indicator when it comes to locating the current location of aurora.

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

-20nT = visible aurora at 57N

-50nT = visible aurora at 54N

Edited February 18, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Very bright aurora visible from here in Ayrshire tonight with green arc around 20deg above the horizon and a clearly visible red band stretching above 30deg. Hopefully someone got a few pics as it was brighter than I was expecting it to be (need to get myself a fancy dslr camera one of these days!).

Edited February 19, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Very bright aurora visible from here in Ayrshire tonight with green arc around 20deg above the horizon and a clearly visible red band stretching above 30deg. Hopefully someone got a few pics as it was brighter than I was expecting it to be (need to get myself a fancy dslr camera one of these days!).

Some pics from last nights display.

Jon Cooper from Shap, Cumbria.

more here - http://spaceweather....29630558_fl.jpg

Austin Taylor, Shetland Islands

more pics here - http://spaceweather....29610383_fl.jpg

Did anyone in Scotland or Ireland hazard a look last night? The aurora was visible low on the horizon at around11pm, it wasn't immensely bright but there was a clearly defined arc from NW to NE.

While it'sconvenient I'll add a few pic's captured during the 15/02 geomagnetic storm.

Lesley Jennings, Aberdeenshire

more here - http://spaceweather....29346016_fl.jpg

Edited February 19, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Beverley Lass]

Gorgeous shots .. I am aurora green with envy !

BL

Edited February 19, 2012 by Beverley Lass

[frogesque]

I despair! New street lights have been installed and the light polution is so bad I can barely see the brightest stars even if we have a clear night. To catch any chance of an aurora I now have a min 20 mile round trip. I'm surprised a Kp5 produced such a good display. but delighted that some had a chance to view it.

[GeorgeWX]

I despair! New street lights have been installed and the light polution is so bad I can barely see the brightest stars even if we have a clear night. To catch any chance of an aurora I now have a min 20 mile round trip. I'm surprised a Kp5 produced such a good display. but delighted that some had a chance to view it.

It's the same here though I can hike 15 minutes uphill and get a decent horizon view but the LP from Glasgow sometimes gets in the way especially during early evening aurora, not such a problem post midnight as the action is to the north west where there it's LP free.

Otherwise I'll drive to a spot around 20 miles to the south where there's no LP.

I noticed this on spaceweather.com today, it's quite funny but has a serious part to it as well, I captured screenshots to show what I'm on about and relates to forecasting the coronal hole wind influence that provided us with pretty good aurora last night.

Yesterday (18/02)

Today

(as you can see I added my own little bit of art!)

Today's spaceweather.com goes on to say that the wind stream that caused last night's aurora was 'expected' in their main headline. Not by them it wasn't.

And not to blow my own trumpet but no other solar forecaster out there mentioned any potential for geomagnetic storming from this CH but I did mention it was possible a few days ago right here!

The coronal hole influence continues but is now showing signs of waning. The Bz has been predominantly northwards or neutral for 12 hours so I'm inclined to believe that this will continue and as a result, geomagnetic storming (and aurora) at UK latitudes is unlikely this evening.

Solar activity remains low, but a new region is rapidly forming close to centre disk (labelled New1). This region was responsible for the first C class flare in days (C1 at 9am) and along with it appears a slow and faint cme that will probably hit us but on it's own is unlikely to cause much effect to our magnetic field.

Today's sun

Edited February 19, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[The PIT]

I despair! New street lights have been installed and the light polution is so bad I can barely see the brightest stars even if we have a clear night. To catch any chance of an aurora I now have a min 20 mile round trip. I'm surprised a Kp5 produced such a good display. but delighted that some had a chance to view it.

Surprised they haven't used more modern lighing which shines the light downwards rather than all over. Our council is slowly installing these and if they had any sense they would also realise they could drop the power down as well. Anyway you're lucky to have a chance. If they ever show up over sheffield you can guarentee it's dull and cloudy.

[GeorgeWX]

Sunspot 1422 is really putting on some beef with significant polarity mixing. The region is currently positioned quite well for earth directed activity and there is potential for M-class flares from 1422 during the next 24 hour period.

Here's a .gif movie showing the pace of growth over the last 48 hours (up to 5pm).

Edited February 20, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[jethro]

A new prediction for the current cycle has been released by NASA:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

This latest one (dated 16/2/12) predicts a smoothed maximum number of 63 in early 2013, making it the smallest cycle in about 100 years.

If memory serves correctly, it's also about 100 lower than their original prediction of a mega cycle, with maximum being about 160 - that's some change!

Came across these last week, posted them in the climate area but thought they may be of interest to some here too.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/abduss_APR.pdf

Predicting a deep, prolonged minima with subdued global temperatures.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

This explores the time lag and impact upon temperatures in the NH arising from quiet Solar periods and prolonged minimums. It's a big paper, for those like me (who rapidly lost the will to live after about page 6), skip through to page 32 for the conclusions.

[GeorgeWX]

Cheers for sharing Jethro, still making their minds up I see! You would expect them to come up with a pretty close prediction now we're four years into the cycle.

They are saying it will be the quietest cycle in 100 years but not the shortest. Solar cycle 14 (1902-1913) is the closest model to what the expected outcome of SC24 will be, the smoothed sunspot number for SC14 was 64 and the new predicted smoothed sn for SC24 is 63.

If SC24 does turn out like SC14 then what should we expect for the next solar cycle? SC14 was quieter than 13, but preceded a cycle that was more active than both 13 and 14, the same could happen for SC25. Some are saying SC25 will match the Dalton minimum (SC5) with a smoothed sn of just 49, some say a smoothed sn of 30 is possible for SC25. Whatever way it goes it will be interesting times for modern science.

Little solar update...

Growth from rapidly developing sunspot group 1422 has stalled in the last 24 hours. The trailing spot has decayed slightly and the region appears more compact. Despite it's size this region has only been capable of C class flaring, all other active regions on the earth side of the sun are quiet, most have decayed to a spotless plage.

Ace detected a cme arrival at approximately 2am this morning and is likely to be related to the C1 flare from 1422 on 19/02. As expected, earth effects were minimal and geomagnetic storming hasn't occurred since arriving.

A coronal hole stretching out from the southern hemisphere is at an earth directed position today (pic below). A high speed wind stream from this CH is likely to arrive on the 24th or 25th and cause unsettled or possibly active conditions during it's influence. I don't expect any auroral activity over the UK from this event.

Coronal hole

Today's sun

Edited February 22, 2012 by GeorgeWX