Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Liam J]

Much better chances of clear skies tomorrow night over the UK, do we have any possibility of catching the Aurora tomorrow? I'd travel further into the lakes to a much darker location if I had a good chance of witnessing some activity.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[yamkin]

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth

Geomagnetic Storm = Minor

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible

Kp Index level has decreased to 3 for now

[Polar Maritime]

Due to weather conditions once again it spoilt the show, it's looking like being a lot clearer tonight so fingers crossed !

[Konstantinos]

Solar flare brings chance to see northern lights

This handout image provided by NASA, taken Sunday night, Jan. 22, 2012, shows a solar flare erupting on the Sun's northeastern hemisphere. Space weather officials say the strongest solar storm in more than six years is already bombarding Earth with radiation with more to come. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Colorado observed a flare Sunday night at 11 p.m. EST. Physicist Doug Biesecker said the biggest concern from the speedy eruption is the radiation, which arrived on Earth an hour later. It will likely continue through Wednesday. It's mostly an issue for astronauts' health and satellite disruptions. It can cause communication problems for airplanes that go over the poles. (AP Photo/NASA) Photo: Associated Press / NASA

A huge solar flare -- the largest since 2005 -- may increase our chances this week to see the aurora borealis or northern lights.

Particles from Sunday's eruption began hitting Earth on Tuesday morning.

Michael Bakich, senior editor of Astronomy magazine, said Tuesday this may create displays of the northern lights for several days.

Geoff Chester, spokesman for the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., said the best chance to see the display was Tuesday night. Seeing the show doesn't require a telescope, or even binoculars.

"Go out just after dusk and look to the north," Alan MacRobert, editor at Sky & Telescope magazine, said Tuesday.

The flare is the latest evidence the sun is becoming more active, emerging from a period of few visible sunspots or solar flares.

The disturbances usually work on an 11-year cycle, with peak activity occurring every 11 years.

Bakich said observatories in recent weeks have seen an increase in the loops and columns of solar matter that can be seen along the sun's edges.

Chester said two sizeable solar flares have already occurred this month. The larger one erupted on Earth's surface Sunday.

The biggest solar flares are given the classification of X, Chester said. This one is slightly less than X.

X-rays traveling at the speed of light arrived on Earth eight minutes after the flare appeared, Chester said. The flare also produced proton ejections that can interfere with space satellite electronics, he said.

"The buildup on the outside of satellites is like static electricity," he said. "Unless you find a way to disperse them, they can fry electronics."

On Tuesday, the final arrival from the solar flare -- the particles that are part of a coronal mass ejection -- began about 10 a.m., Bakich said.

The particles, while not dangerous to humans, can interfere with telecommunications and radio systems. Lt. J. Paul Vance, spokesman for the Connecticut State Police, said Tuesday that because of prior preparations, the state police had not had communications problems.

Paul Estefan, emergency management director in Danbury, said he also was not aware of any communications problems.

The planet's magnetic poles pull the coronal mass ejection particles toward the poles. There, they collide with particles in the Earth's upper atmosphere. Those collisions create the lights of the aurora borealis.

Generally, you have to be in the far northern latitudes to see the aurora displays. But after major solar flares, people farther to the south can see them -- sometimes as far south as Arizona.

Chester said the only way to see them is to go and look.

"It's going to be a clear night," he said Tuesday. "There's a possibility you could see something."

Contact Robert Miller

at bmiller@newstimes.com

http://www.chron.com...hts-2683206.php

Edited January 25, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Coast]

[Liam J]

Minor geomagnetic activity recorded @ 9.00am

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

[Coast]

Doug Biesecker, a physicist at the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo., said that while the solar flare has caused problems for some GPS systems, airline communications systems and satellites over the past day or two, most people around the world won't notice any ill effects. On the plus side, many people could see some dramatic aurora borealis displays. "There was no effect on cell phones or the Internet," Biesecker said. "There was a solar flare that erupted Sunday evening ... and we've had a radiation storm in progress - a fairly significant radiation storm."

Biesecker noted that the radiation storm that emanated from the solar eruption is the 11th largest since 1975 and the largest since October of 2003. And a geomagnetic storm, a temporary disturbance in the Earth's magnetosphere also caused by the solar flare, began hitting on Tuesday. Several airlines, including Delta and United, have diverted flights that normally travel over the North and South Poles, as well as some high-altitude routes. Biesecker explained that the high radiation levels from the solar eruption do impact high-frequency communications, for instance on a network often used by the military, airlines and mariners. The communication network is most affected in polar regions.

"People working on the South Pole were out of touch for about two days, and on the North Pole, airlines that fly over there were affected," said Biesecker. "And on the poles, they can't use satellite communications because all the comm satellites sit over the equator and are out of view of the poles." And he also noted that satellites have been affected the last few days. "Every satellite we use to help predict weather was impacted. Every one," said Biesecker, who noted that the satellites are programmed to correct any issues in real time. "It wasn't to the point where it would kill a satellite. It was more a temporary problem. Literally, there were no disruptions in TV signals or point-of-sale transactions that I'm aware of."

He explained that to deal with a radiation storm this significant, satellite operators try to communicate with the satellites as little as possible so the machines, which are struggling in the storm, don't confuse a command that could cause the satellite to do something it's not supposed to. The geomagnetic storm, which began Tuesday and is still going on today, has been causing tiny errors in GPS systems, Biesecker noted. The errors are so small that most people wouldn't notice any effect from them. However, people and industries who rely on extremely exact calculations could be affected this week, he said.

"Would you notice it in your car? No," said Biesecker. "But if you're doing precision agriculture, where you need to fertilize and water exactly where you planted a seed, now the crops won't grow as well. Or if you're doing surveying where you need accuracy to a centimeter, you're impacted."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9223710/Space_storm_hits_satellites_airlines_consumer_GPS_systems_are_safe

http://youtu.be/qNlwKCojUHU

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

I guess this Aurora forecast isn't reliable?

I've been looking at it for a couple of days and it thinks the aurora is visible from as far south as N England tonight...

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Doesn't seem likely looking at other data available, and it is only a test product.

[GeorgeWX]

I guess this Aurora forecast isn't reliable?

I've been looking at it for a couple of days and it thinks the aurora is visible from as far south as N England tonight...

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Doesn't seem likely looking at other data available, and it is only a test product.

Yep your assumption is spot on. All of the short range forecasts lean on the Ace satellite data for their predictions and can overcook expected earth effects.

Current data suggests we are under the influence of a weak coronal hole stream, wind speed is up a little and mag field up slightly too. Auroral activity is a little further south than usual at the moment due to the ch influence but at present theres no alert for visible aurora from any UK latitudes below 58N.

Edited January 26, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Yep your assumption is spot on. All of the short range forecasts lean on the Ace satellite data for their predictions and can overcook expected earth effects.

Current data suggests we are under the influence of a weak coronal hole stream, wind speed is up a little and mag field up slightly too. Auroral activity is a little further south than usual at the moment due to the ch influence but at present theres no alert for visible aurora from any UK latitudes below 58N.

Thanks for confirming that.

Was hoping for another storm this weekend I was going to head up home to Durham and try to get a view of it but doesn't look likely now.

[GeorgeWX]

Noaa;s nightly space weather update confirms that the rise in activity late last night was due to coronal hole effects.

Late this afternoon departing sunspot 1402, the region responsible for pretty much all of the recent flares erupted once again, along with the bright cme was a X1.7 flare LDE still in progress and likely to last 12-15 hours. 1402 was already over the limb when flaring commenced but nonetheless a S2 proton storm is now underway. In terms of cme direction I don't expect there to be any earth directed component from this eruption but a passing shockwave can't be ruled out. The result of which if it were to occur would be a brief period of active conditions and not enough to warrant aurora alerts. Noaa don't rule out a hit from this cme stating further analysis will be required to establish potential geo-effectiveness.

Newly numbered sunspot 1410, now fully visible on the earth side of the sun is a reasonable size (250mths) but remains quiet for now. Earth facing 1408 located slap bang centre disk holds a simple structure and has remained stable during it's transit..

Lasco c2 gif movie of X1.7 flare cme

Click to play.

Today's sun

Edited January 28, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

A magnetic sudden impulse was recorded at Ace satellite around one hour ago and it is what looks like the edge of the cme related to the farside X1 flare brushing past.

Effects should remain minimal. The Bz initially tilted south on impact but quickly tracked to a strong north position where it remains for the moment. Peak field strength - 12nT and wind speed 420km/s. Peak planetary kp of 4-5 likely should a persistant southward Bz occur.

Edited January 30, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[keithlucky]

We in a low solar minimum ,does that mean we in for a world cooling at this particular time?

[Crepuscular Ray]

We are not in solar minimum, but building towards a - probably low - solar maximum.

[GeorgeWX]

We remain under transient cme effects seven hours after it's arrival. The peak planetery kp so far has been 3, with an active period (k4) between 1900 and 2030. Soho recorded the peak wind speed at 440km/s and peak wind density at 46p/cm3.

Looking ahead to the next few days solar activity is likely to be low. AR1410 remains quiet but there is a small cluster of spots forming to the immediate south of 1410. Activity from this region could pick up if growth continues.

We also have a trans-equitorial coronal hole (pic below) that will be earth facing in the next 24-36 hours. This ch has continually grown over the past 3 rotations and is now of a size where our geomagnetic field may experience unsettled or active conditions (kp3-4) when it's wind stream arrives on 3/02 or possibly 4/02.

The northern edge of this coronal hole borders AR1410 so a little potential for stormier conditions should the sunspot region become more active.

The farside of the sun looks very quiet indeed, we could be seeing a one to two week lull in activity if 1410 remains quiet. Then hopefully 1402 will re-emerge and pick things up again.

Coronal hole

Today's sun

Edited January 31, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Typhoon John]

I haven't been following the solar stuff since the minimum was over but the Northern Lights last week piqued my interest again.

I was viewing the current curves for sunspots and flux and they seem to be on track to come in quite low. Interestingly, the up slope seems very steep to me. I seem to recall that the way the cycle ramps up dictates how it will wane.

With that in mind we could be looking at quite a short period of maximum activity and a long tail off. Does anyone have any thoughts? I've not read much expert opinion on how the cycle is progressing.

Also, is SC25 still supposed to be even weaker? Either way, interesting times ahead.

[GeorgeWX]

Solar activity is low and there has been almost no flare activity at all since the last update. 1410 retains it's size and the small cluster of sunspots to the south of 1410 have now been numbered 1413. Growth continues around this newly formed region.

The CH has retained it's size since my previous post and was earth facing today. I still expect unsettled to active conditions sometime during 3/02 and 4/02 when it's high speed wind stream passes earth. The large coronal hole makes top story on today's spaceweather.com and says NOAA are forecasting a 15% chance of aurora on 3/02 or 4/02. NOAA's more detailed nightly forecast goes for quiet to unsettled (kp2-3). Most other forecasts go for unsettled.

Todays sun

I haven't been following the solar stuff since the minimum was over but the Northern Lights last week piqued my interest again.

I was viewing the current curves for sunspots and flux and they seem to be on track to come in quite low. Interestingly, the up slope seems very steep to me. I seem to recall that the way the cycle ramps up dictates how it will wane.

With that in mind we could be looking at quite a short period of maximum activity and a long tail off. Does anyone have any thoughts? I've not read much expert opinion on how the cycle is progressing.

Also, is SC25 still supposed to be even weaker? Either way, interesting times ahead.

If my mind serves correctly, the earliest predictions on sc24 was for a super strong cycle, then downgraded when the minimum was stretching and downgraded a couple more times during the slumber before a slight upgrade well into sc24. To be honest I think Hathaway's guess is as good as anyone's! As for sc25, it could be either a quiet or active cycle, we just don't know enough about old sol to accurately predict future cycles!

Edited February 2, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

As I somewhat expected, solar activity ground to a halt after the departure of 1402. 1410 and sidekick 1413 have remained very quiet since the last update, that was up until around 8pm this evening.

In progress is a M1+ class flare, the source looks to be 1410. It will be an hour or two before we know if there is a cme. If so then another few hours to work out direction.

Old sunspot group 1402 still identifies as a large active region on the sun's farside, it should appear over the limb on Sunday or perhaps Monday.

Graph llustrating the very recent drop in sn and solar flux.

Today's sun

Edited February 6, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Liam J]

Some photographs submitted onto Spaceweather.com of the Aurora taken over Norway 05/02/12.

These are stunning images, makes me want to book a flight up there.

More here - http://spaceweather...._1328456956.jpg

Edited February 6, 2012 by Liam J

[GeorgeWX]

A minor storm level disturbance has just been recorded on the UK magnetometer.

The cause of this is a higher than normal wind speed (500km/h) combined with a strong southward Bz and a 'very slightly' enhanced stream of energetic particles flowing within the wind.

A period of active geomagnetic conditions is now underway, at the moment it may just be a brief disturbance and not warrant any kind of UK aurora warning but if that does change, I'll pop back on to update.

Edited February 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Geomagnetic activity still continues at active levels with two short periods of minor storming since 20:30, the second of the two occurring just 20 minutes ago. Aurora would have been very briefly visible across most of Scotland but I expect any display tonight to be rather faint so crystal clear skies will be necessary to see this one, also factor in LP from moonlight.

I've also lso been watching the x-ray flux closely over the last couple of hours, it has been rising slowly the whole time suggesting a large and bright cme is lifting off the sun. The culprit is 1410, located near the western limb. A slow moving cme from this location is unlikely to be geo-effective.

The (very faint) cme resulting from yesterday's M1 flare should miss earth completely.

Long duration event (LDE) in progress

Edited February 7, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

Geomagnetic activity returned to quiet/unsettled levels last night after the second brief minor storm disturbance.

Last night's LDE flare from sunspot group 1410 topped out at C7.2, the resulting eruption was surprisingly small. 1410 has now disappeared over the limb and as a result the sunspot number is crashing. Today's sn is 24 thanks mainly to a small region trailing AR1410 and two almost invisible regions in the southern hemisphere. The chance of a spotless day being recorded is small as old sunspot region 1407 is due to appear over the limb during the next 24 hours. Trailing behind that by 2-3 days is AR1402, still alive and kicking and hopefully will be a decent size when it emerges.

Solar flux recorded at 8pm comes in at 97, the lowest in quite some time.

It's all sounding doom and gloom at the moment with low solar activity but I am reassured by the recent M and low X class flaring and dense cme's that have took place during the previous 27 day rotation, things should pick up a bit once old AR1402 emerges.

Today's sun

Edited February 8, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[GeorgeWX]

The sunspot number did manage to hover above ground zero at 28, solar flux recorded at 8pm was 99.

Old sunspot 1407 looks to now be fully over the eastern limb and viewable from earth's position, there appears to be only 2 or 3 distinguishable spots on the HD quality images but there is a large patch of active magnetism around the region, therefore the potential for growth exists. The most recent Lasco C2 image is showing some cme activity that might be from this region (pic below), there is a chance that this cme is coming from old AR1402 behind the limb or even a spotless region on the earthside but my hunch is it has come from 1407. On today's sun image this region is labelled 'New1' as it will be designated a new number from NOAA tomorrow.

A newly formed active region in the southern hemisphere put on a fair bit of weight during the last 24 hours, C class flaring is likely and M class flaring is possible during the next 24 hours particularly if the areal coverage extends. (labelled New2).

Today's sun

A cme from 1407?

Edited February 9, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[karyo]

I find it interesting that the solar flux has fallen below 100 for the first time in months! Hopefully more quiet spells to come and maybe even a spotless day soon?

Karyo

[GeorgeWX]

I find it interesting that the solar flux has fallen below 100 for the first time in months! Hopefully more quiet spells to come and maybe even a spotless day soon?

Karyo

100 is a bit of a benchmark isn't it, considering that the baseline for flux during minimum is 65 and flux at solar max around 200 to 250, anything below 100 as you are approaching solar max does concern some people. The two days below 100 shouldn't impact monthly or smoothed flux values that much.

I'm not to bothered myself, I'm hopeful that the flux will hit or pass 160 after 1402 reappears.

Edited February 10, 2012 by GeorgeWX