Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[kar999]

They also recommend for astronauts to stay home and avoid space walks but—according to Biesecker—this type of storm is "far below the level needed for the ISS to take any extraordinary protection measures." If it's ok for them, you can be sure it's perfectly fine for you and me down here on good old planet Earth.

NOAA's scale says that an S3 proton storm may pose danger to passengers in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes, which is why some airplanes below the 65th parallel north are now actually flying at lower altitudes to avoid any kind of radiation nastiness.

"Many airliners have been avoiding the North Pole routes because they are more exposed to the proton storm, which disrupts High Frequency radio communications," he said on a telephone interview. HF datalinks are crucial to modern airflight, as they keep aircraft connected to Air Traffic Control. Due to the structure of the magnetic field that surrounds Earth, the polar cusps have very little protection against outbursts of solar radiation, so any airplane crossing that area could be exposed to this mayhem.

Yep… On the very rare occasions of previous extremely severe solar storms, the astronauts would take cover in the thickest part of the ISS. Transatlantic planes will also divert further south away from the pole as a normal precaution.

As for previous hysteria from the like of the Daily Mail and any other Doom Mongers

There is a strong possibility the UK will be hit by the powerful solar flare. This is because the intensity of the solar flare is reaching the X territory band which is the most powerful level.

Don't be surprised that the aviation authorities ground all planes as a precaution.

………….it’s never happened yet !!

Polar Maritime...

Activity had subsided last night ... the latest CME is not due to hit until later today.

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth on Jan. 24 at 14:18UT (+/- 7 hours)

Edited January 24, 2012 by kar999

[yamkin]

MAGNETOSPHERE HAS DRAMATICALLY DIMINISHED

(The Earth's Protective Shield is the Magnetosphere)

PROTON LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH

Edited January 24, 2012 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

Good shout Yam.

Ace detected the arrival of the cme around 10 minutes ago, this means that land based magnetometers around the world will detect a sudden storm commencement in the next 45 minutes.

Initial signs suggest a possible strong geomagnetic storm but it's far too early to say for sure, another half hour of data from Ace will paint a better picture of expected earth effects.

The cme arrival prediction time was almost nailed perfectly by Nasa, maybe 10 minutes out.

Yam, the pretty looking magnetosphere simulation that you always refer to will be inaccurate as is based exclusively on data supplied by ace, including solar wind speed and density. Both of these parameters return false readings during proton events.

Edited January 24, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

Good shout Yam.

Ace detected the arrival of the cme around 10 minutes ago, this means that land based magnetometers around the world will detect a sudden storm commencement in the next 45 minutes.

Initial signs suggest a possible strong geomagnetic storm but it's far too early to say for sure, another half hour of data from Ace will paint a better picture of expected earth effects.

The cme arrival prediction time was almost nailed perfectly by Nasa, maybe 10 minutes out.

Yam, the pretty looking magnetosphere simulation that you always refer to will be inaccurate as is based exclusively on data supplied by ace, including solar wind speed and density. Both of these parameters return false readings during proton events.

George, I did a test run with the magnetosphere simulation a couple of months ago when i spotted pressure intensity increasing, but NOAA and others kept quiet. I approahed Solar24 who also remained quiet, but I decided to put my neck on the line and send out warnings on my blogs (One of my blogs has numerous scientists on there). The scientists were cautious, but a few non scientists voiced their x y & z's at me. Solar24 eventually got back to me realising I was onto something and the haters became friendly with appologies. So, I base my findings mainly on the magnetosphere simulation model, but I do research other models to be on the safe side.

I really do appreciate your constructive thoughts and your great posts as well

Edited January 24, 2012 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

Travelling a distance of 1 million miles in roughly 31 minutes, how fast is that?

A typical cme takes 50 minutes to cover the 1 million miles between the ace satellite and earth.

The answer will tell us the speed of the cme that has just struck.

The uk magnetometer detected the arrival of the cme with a SSC measuring roughly 55nT.

The ace satellite has now been recording the magnetic strength and orientation of the incoming solar wind for one hour. The Bz component tipped northward on impact and remains tightly north. This isn't good for anyone wanting a big geomagnetic storm and aurora.

The strong northward Bz component should hopefully loosen off a little in the coming hours.

Fingers crossed!!!

Also to add - Protons on the rise even further as a result of the cme impact, we could surpass the S4 threshold in the next hour or so (currently S3).

Edited January 24, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for the update's.

So there is a possibility of catching an araura tonight but it's slim.....?

[GeorgeWX]

Thanks for the update's.

So there is a possibility of catching an araura tonight but it's slim.....?

Too early to say, I would make sure the camera batteries are charging though. No doubt this is a powerful cme, if the Bz did turn southward/negative (which it easily could at any point) then storming at kp6-8 would almost certainly be the result.

This geomagnetic storm should last right through this evening, it will take twists and turns as the night wears on.

Still trying to work out the cme arrival speed, would 900km/s be close (maths was never my best subject!)

1 million miles in 31 minutes = roughly 2 million mph speed or 3.2 million kmh or 900km/s ???

Edited January 24, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[lfcdude]

http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/

saw this on another forum abisko aurora cam

[Liam J]

The British Geological Survey have written a blog published on the Met Office site regarding the Aurora on Sunday night, also a brief explanation of geomagnetic storms and the best time to witness the Aurora Borealis.

Further displays can be expected in the near future.

http://metofficenews...ts-over-the-uk/

Edited January 24, 2012 by Liam J

[BornFromTheVoid]

Too early to say, I would make sure the camera batteries are charging though. No doubt this is a powerful cme, if the Bz did turn southward/negative (which it easily could at any point) then storming at kp6-8 would almost certainly be the result.

This geomagnetic storm should last right through this evening, it will take twists and turns as the night wears on.

Still trying to work out the cme arrival speed, would 900km/s be close (maths was never my best subject!)

1 million miles in 31 minutes = roughly 2 million mph speed or 3.2 million kmh or 900km/s ???

Works out at 865km/s methinks.

CME hit at around 3pm today.

http://spaceweather.com/

[frogesque]

Any idea where I can get a clear sky tonight? I'm totally clouded out with a dank, miserable, foggy drizzle to add to the joy

[Liam J]

Any idea where I can get a clear sky tonight? I'm totally clouded out with a dank, miserable, foggy drizzle to add to the joy

Looking at the satellite I'd say Spain or Norway are your best bet http://www.sat24.com/

Extensive cloud cover over the British Isles I'm afraid, conditions may be better tomorrow.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Liam J

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Kp index has just jumped to 4. It's a start...

[GeorgeWX]

George, I did a test run with the magnetosphere simulation a couple of months ago when i spotted pressure intensity increasing, but NOAA and others kept quiet. I approahed Solar24 who also remained quiet, but I decided to put my neck on the line and send out warnings on my blogs (One of my blogs has numerous scientists on there). The scientists were cautious, but a few non scientists voiced their x y & z's at me. Solar24 eventually got back to me realising I was onto something and the haters became friendly with appologies. So, I base my findings mainly on the magnetosphere simulation model, but I do research other models to be on the safe side.

Yam I'm trying to help you out by telling you that the simulation thing you constantly post is based entirely on the data recorded by the ace satellite, the only time all the data on ace is correct is when geomagnetic activity is quiet, and the satellite isn't getting pummeled by a cme.

When a cme passes, the wind density parameter gives erroneous measurements, this makes the Nict simulation inaccurate whilst under cme effects. During a proton storm, the wind speed, wind density and temperature all give incorrect values making the Nict simulation thing about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike.

Works out at 865km/s methinks.

CME hit at around 3pm today.

http://spaceweather.com/

The Kp index has just jumped to 4. It's a start...

Excellent, thanks for that. 800+ km/s sure is quick for the incoming solar wind and will do it's bit to influence the geomagnetic storm.

The NOAA kp4 rating is pretty high considering the dominant northward magnetic orientation. It did flip south for around 20 minutes and is now reverberating northward, this process should 'hopefully' repeat further and if so, it will be the precursor to stronger geomagnetic storming and uk latitude aurora.

Don't forget that the official kp level during the very recent geomagnetic storm peaked at 5, yet auroral activity was visible in Norfolk. The reason for the 'undervaluation' is due to NOAA magnetometer placements (8 in North America and 2 the rest of the world) all 10 stations combining measurements to create the planetery kp index. Worth remembering, it doesn't write off the viability of the noaa kp scale but as geomagnetic activity gets attracted to the night side of earth it can cause slight anomalies.

The weather isn't looking too great for most tonight, maybe a clearing for eire and some gaps appearing here and there. Visibility here in Ayrshire over the last couple of hours has been right down below 200m so not much hope here but who knows, might get lucky!

Edited January 24, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[Northernlights]

Could just make out a green /yellow arc to the north just above the horizon 30 minutes ago.Rather to much cloud to get a clear view.

[kar999]

Murphys law looks like winning yet again!

Forecast is for being clouded out here for most of the night. Just typical, as on so many previous occasions over the years, when activity has been high enough for sightings at this latitude, the Great British weather goes and spoils it all.

Good luck if conditions continue to improve and you have a clear sky. Best I can hope for is a few minor breaks in the cloud cover.

[frogesque]

Looking at the satellite I'd say Spain or Norway are your best bet http://www.sat24.com/

Extensive cloud cover over the British Isles I'm afraid, conditions may be better tomorrow.

LOL, much as I expected!

Edit: Nice pic from Norway aready on Spaceweather

Edited January 24, 2012 by frogesque

[Crepuscular Ray]

According to Spaceweather, the interplanetary magnetic field's just turned south.

[GeorgeWX]

According to Spaceweather, the interplanetary magnetic field's just turned south.

Yup and it isn't bouncing back so quickly this time, could be a good sign. (ever the optimist I am!)

For anyone unsure what we are talking about, the graph below containing Ace data should help.

Ignore everything except the red line, this line represents the Bz component of the magnetic field and is one hour upwind from earth so a little advanced warning.

When Bz readings are above zero they are known as positive or northward, below zero is known as negative or southward.

A southward Bz recorded at Ace normally results in a period where magnetic reconnection at earth between our magnetic field and the field of the solar wind is more likely. The door is opened and protons/electrons come flooding in causing magnetometers to show a decrease in the field strength and sparking aurora further south than usual.

This graph updates every few minutes, click to view.

If the skies were clearer here in Ayrshire I would be heading out by now as I'm expecting an aurora viewing opportunity very soon.

Edited January 24, 2012 by GeorgeWX

[yamkin]

K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth

Geomagnetic Storm = Minor

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible

Edited January 24, 2012 by yamkin

[GeorgeWX]

We're now getting in some more reliable data showing cme wind speed and density, the current geomagnetic storm is very different to the one just passed a few days ago, so I'l compare the two below.

Current storm:

Peak wind speed: 780 km/s

Peak mag field strength: 35nT

Peak wind density: 16 protons cm/3

Max kp: 5 (so far)

Jan 22 storm

Peak wind speed: 490 km/s

Peak mag field strength: 39nT

Peak wind density: 80 protons cm/3

Max kp: 5

The cme driving the ongoing geomagnetic storm arrived with a very low wind density at only 16 pcm/3 (currently around 7 pcm/3) and a rapidly weakening magnetic field strength compared to the 22/01 storm but does have a relatively high wind speed (currently 600 km/s). It is the high wind speed that is driving this geomagnetic storm, much like a coronal hole wind stream. I don't expect severe geomagnetic storming tonight but the minor storm levels we are experiencing the now will extend late into tonight with a small chance of major storm periods (kp7) should a sustained southward IMF occur.

[chrisb1357]

Hi

So does that mean we still have a chance of seeing something in the UK if it was clear outside

Chris

We're now getting in some more reliable data showing cme wind speed and density, the current geomagnetic storm is very different to the one just passed a few days ago, so I'l compare the two below.

Current storm:

Peak wind speed: 780 km/s

Peak mag field strength: 35nT

Peak wind density: 16 protons cm/3

Max kp: 5 (so far)

Jan 22 storm

Peak wind speed: 490 km/s

Peak mag field strength: 39nT

Peak wind density: 80 protons cm/3

Max kp: 5

The cme driving the ongoing geomagnetic storm arrived with a very low wind density at only 16 pcm/3 (currently around 7 pcm/3) and a rapidly weakening magnetic field strength compared to the 22/01 storm but does have a relatively high wind speed (currently 600 km/s). It is the high wind speed that is driving this geomagnetic storm, much like a coronal hole wind stream. I don't expect severe geomagnetic storming tonight but the minor storm levels we are experiencing the now will extend late into tonight with a small chance of major storm periods (kp7) should a sustained southward IMF occur.

[stevestorms]

name='Paul Sherman' timestamp='1327355752' post='2220145']

N1 Steve

Thats gotta be the furthest South

Excellent photos mate, quite unusual for the Aurora to be seen so far south? Dam it and here was me tucked up in bed when I could have been witnessing one of the best displays that Mother Nature has to offer!

Thanks guys some beautiful pics on this forum my shots shows how weak the Aurora is this far south at least on Sunday I can't wait to see Aurora in storm proportions with real vivid colours that you can almost touch :-)

[lfcdude]

http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/

some nice green aurora on there, Sweden.

anyway way from scotland north england would have a chance if was clear i think...i am no expert only a guess from following this thread in the last year and from George posts in the past.

Have him to thank for me seaing it last summer when a kp 9

[BornFromTheVoid]

Auroras likely as far south as Northern Scotland at the moment