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Posted
  • Location: Amersfoort, Netherlands
  • Location: Amersfoort, Netherlands

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Sunspot 960 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares.

    NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of such a flare during the next 24 hours.

    A big eruption could trigger ion storms, radio fadeouts and, if all goes well, auroras.

    For instance, an M3-flare from sunspot 960 on June 1st caused a shortwave fadeout over Europe.

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    Just a few pics from early this morning at West Sands, St. Andrews  First one was 100iso eq @ f1.8 and 10 sec exposure, strong moonlight about midnight with the faintest of hint of an aurora.

    From Salon on the Isle Of Rum & The Isle Of Lewis tonight. Credit; Martin Keivers and Emma Mitchell.  

    More shots here from Scotland last night. Fingers crossed again tonight as there is another predicted Kp7 ☺

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: nr. Ilminster, Somerset
  • Location: nr. Ilminster, Somerset

    It seems that the sunspot has produced it's first X-class flare (X1) at around 0500UT this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: nr. Ilminster, Somerset
  • Location: nr. Ilminster, Somerset

    Pretty quiet today since the last M Flare early this morning. Hope for an Xflare soon.

    The SEC reported an X1 flare at 0506-0516UT this morning, although it seems to have been 'downgraded' since.

    Edited by Goatherd
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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    M7.6 was the official figure given - think this one will give a glancing blow. Moderate radio blackouts around the world on HF too :drinks:

    Edit: I make that eight M-flares now since 960 appeared.

    Edited by Mondy
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    • 2 weeks later...
    • 2 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    At long long last - something stirring?

    09/11/2007 by VE3EN at 03:00

    I do not want to set off the alarm bells or get any hopes up.. however in one of the latest solar images there could be a high latitude sunspot about to make itself shown on the eastern limb. This would be a great sign for the beginning of solar cycle 24. Thanks Mark "K8MEM" for the heads up.

    From: http://www.solarcycle24.com/

    :)

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W
  • Location: Kingdom of Fife: 56.2º N, 3.2º W

    Still a blank sun but the Kp is cooking at 6 due to a strong solar wind from a coronal hole.

    http://www.spaceweather.com/

    We are only a day past full moon though and the weather's pretty grotty here so I don't think I'll be out looking for aurora. We really need a good solar flare to head our way with a Kp of 7+ - I'm getting withdrawl symptoms during this solar minimum :mellow:

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    As NASA prepare us for cycle 24 we must all be mindful of the amount of satellites that are vulnerable to negatively charged CME's thrown our way during it's peak. It may also be wise for those under an 'Ozone hole' to also be more aware of the emissions our gentle giant is throwing at us through that period! Interesting times Eh?

    I've personally never known the sun this quiet for this long! Lull before the storm anyone?

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    aurora possible at high lats 18th oct other wise very quiet

    Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

    SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2007

    IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z

    to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no spots

    visible on the solar disk.

    IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

    low.

    IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

    The geomagnetic field was quiet.

    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

    expected to be quiet for 16 October. Expect unsettled conditions

    with isolated active periods for 17-18 October due to a recurrent

    coronal hole.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Am i just showing my rank amature status or has it been unbearably quiet for and absolute age now??? I seem to remember Mondy was still on board the last time anything of note occurred!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    hi GW

    i am very much a newbie at this myself,i,ve always visited spaceweather.com more for earthbound weather content than space weather.over the last year i,ve noticed that the little sun piccy has,nt shown much of anything

    as mondy,s last post says ,they thought the sun had passed min last june but in july there was a little flurry of activity since then its been down hill and still not forecast to be on the upward trend til feb/mar

    you can get sunspot numbers from here http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/dailyssn.php

    i downloaded the entire file 1888 till sept 2007

    you got to save it then open with internet explorer

    the way i read it its been very quiet since early 2006 with the occasional hiccup

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

    hi GW

    i am very much a newbie at this myself,i,ve always visited spaceweather.com more for earthbound weather content than space weather.over the last year i,ve noticed that the little sun piccy has,nt shown much of anything

    as mondy,s last post says ,they thought the sun had passed min last june but in july there was a little flurry of activity since then its been down hill and still not forecast to be on the upward trend til feb/mar

    you can get sunspot numbers from here http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/dailyssn.php

    i downloaded the entire file 1888 till sept 2007

    you got to save it then open with internet explorer

    the way i read it its been very quiet since early 2006 with the occasional hiccup

    Thanks for the link http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

    another coronal hole, large hole at the N? pole, a long time since the last small sunspot recorded - the next one will be at a northern latitude (50/50guess) marking the beginning of the next cycle!

    Edited by Chris Knight
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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    hi chris, yes i,ve only just noticed this

    Latest issue

    :Issued: 2007 Oct 17 0902 UTC

    :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/quieta

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    # from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): "ALL QUIET" ALERT #

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    END OF ALL QUIET ALERT

    ......................

    The SIDC - RWC Belgium expects solar or geomagnetic activity to

    increase. This may end quiet Space Weather conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

    Links only in this pinned thread remember pls - chat here:

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33760

    Yesterday:

    post-7302-1192746800_thumb.png

    Something wicked this way comes - at solar minimum - and we have clear skies too! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

    http://spaceweather.com

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    Thanks chris read that earlier

    latest forecast

    Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

    Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

    Updated 2007 Oct 18 2203 UTC

    Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

    SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2007

    IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z

    to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains

    spotless.

    IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain

    very low.

    IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

    The geomagnetic field began the summary period at quiet levels and

    became briefly active between 09-12Z as a recurrent coronal hole

    high speed stream became geoeffective. Activity since 12Z has been

    quiet to unsettled.

    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

    expected to range from unsettled to active for the next three days

    under the continued influence of the high speed stream.

    III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

    Class M 01/01/01

    Class X 01/01/01

    Proton 01/01/01

    PCAF Green

    IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

    Observed 18 Oct 068

    Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 067/067/067

    90 Day Mean 18 Oct 068

    V. Geomagnetic A Indices

    Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 000/001

    Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/010

    Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 010/015-012/012-010/008

    VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct

    A. Middle Latitudes

    Active 20/20/20

    Minor storm 10/15/10

    Major-severe storm 05/10/05

    B. High Latitudes

    Active 35/26/15

    Minor storm 15/14/10

    Major-severe storm 10/05/01

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    still no sunspots but expect some geomagnetic activity soon

    apparently some nice green aurora in the shetlands lastnight

    latest courtesy of http://sidc.oma.be/index.php

    :Issued: 2007 Oct 19 1141 UTC

    :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    GEOALERT BRU292

    UGEOA 30512 71019 1122/ 9930/

    10192 21192 30192

    99999

    PLAIN

    NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 19 Oct 2007 until 21 Oct 2007

    PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 021

    PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 014

    PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 007

    COMMENT: A post eruption arcade (related to a GOES A-flare) was seen

    yesterday around 9 am in the active region situated near the center of

    the solar disk. Possibly it was accompanied by a small filament

    eruption. LASCO C2 images show a very faint CME in the south-west, with

    first appearance at 9h54 on 18 Oct. It is thus possible that the earth

    is in the influence zone of this CME in 2-3 days.

    We are currently still under the influence of the fast stream from the

    equatorial coronal hole, it gave rise to several geomagnetic active

    intervals and we expect the current conditions to persist for the next

    24 hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    And looks good for the weekend with Orionids to add a nice 'flare' to the events.

    If Solar min does produce more H.P.'s across the globe then it shows mother natures sense of humour! clear skies and not a chance of a CME!

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    Posted
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex
  • Location: Worthing West Sussex

    And looks good for the weekend with Orionids to add a nice 'flare' to the events.

    If Solar min does produce more H.P.'s across the globe then it shows mother natures sense of humour! clear skies and not a chance of a CME!

    I don't know about the lack of CMEs over the last year or so, there seem to have been plenty since Jan 2006, It seems that solar minima are exactly the time that CMEs ejected over coronal holes are most common:

    "2.4.3. CORONAL HOLES

    Another coronal feature visible especially by X-ray imagery is the coronal hole. Coronal holes were first discovered using early X-ray images. Scientists observing X-ray images of the corona observed sharply defined areas of little to no X-ray emission on the Sun, and called them coronal holes. A coronal hole is always present at each of the Sun’s poles, and they also form at the lower latitudes, most often during the declining phase of the solar cycle, right before solar minimum.

    Coronal holes start as isolated features, grow larger over the declining phase, and eventually merge with the polar holes. Coronal holes are areas of the corona in which there exist open magnetic field lines. In reality, these magnetic fields are not truly open, but close far enough away from the surface of the Sun

    that the areas containing coronal holes can be considered as having open magnetic field lines, i.e. there is no end with opposing polarity of a magnetic field line originating from this area. This open magnetic field structure allows a constant stream of high-density plasma to flow out of the coronal holes because there is no magnetic structure to hold it to the solar surface. "

    Excerpt from http://www.mtholyoke.edu/courses/mdyar/the...sis_cwalker.pdf

    ( Thesis: Variations of Solar Wind Parameters over a Solar Cycle:

    Expectations for NASA’s Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Mission

    Catherine C. Walker

    Mount Holyoke College 2007

    Department of Astronomy)

    There are some beauts at the present moment:

    post-7302-1192914533_thumb.png

    courtesy of links on Spaceweather.com

    They keep moving the CANOPUS real time oval site, currently here:

    http://portal.cssdp.ca:8080/ssdp/static_co...oval/index.html

    But is it the solar minimum responsible for the HPs? Or the combination of the solar sunspot minimum with the "lunar standstill" over the past three years that is creating the conditions for stable high pressure regions over the northern and southern temperate and polar regions? Or something else, to do with the magnetosphere and the weakening polar field, perhaps, or the declining Cosmic ray incidence?

    Edited by Chris Knight
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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    last weeks report

    :Issued: 2007 Oct 22 1234 UTC

    :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    # SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    WEEK 355 from 2007 Oct 15

    SOLAR CONDITIONS:

    ----------------

    Solar conditions were very quiet during this week. The GOES X-ray curve

    remained

    at or below A-levels during the entire week. A recurring equatorial

    coronal hole

    passed the central meridian. Embedded in this coronal hole there was an

    active

    region NOAA 0972, which produced some low -flaring activity.

    GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS:

    ----------------------

    The recurring coronal hole produced several intervals of active to

    minor storm

    conditions during 18-20 October. Geomagnetic conditions were most

    disturbed during

    the night from 19 to 20 October.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DAILY INDICES

    DATE RC EISN 10CM Ak BKG M X

    2007 Oct 15 000 000 67 003 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 16 /// 000 67 002 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 17 011 000 67 002 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 18 /// 000 68 013 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 19 000 000 67 021 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 20 /// 000 67 012 A0.0 0 0

    2007 Oct 21 /// 000 67 006 A0.0 0 0

    # RC : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)

    # EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number

    # 10cm : 10.7 cm radioflux (DRAO, Canada)

    # Ak : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)

    # BKG : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA)

    # M,X : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see belo

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    todays latest ,including today 17 days with no sunspots

    :Issued: 2007 Oct 24 1234 UTC

    :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    GEOALERT BRU297

    UGEOA 30512 71024 1220/ 9930/

    10242 22242 30242

    99999

    PLAIN

    NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 24 Oct 2007 until 26

    Oct 2007

    PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 006

    PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 027

    PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 017

    COMMENT: The solar activity is quiet and is expected to remain so. The

    Earth is currently in the slow solar wind flow with weak fluctuating

    interplanetary magnetic field, so the geomagnetic conditions will be

    quiet in the coming hours. Tomorrow we expect the arrival of the fast

    solar wind flow from a recurrent low-latitude coronal hole in the

    southern hemisphere. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions up to the minor

    storm level are expected, similarly to the previous Carrington

    rotation.

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    Posted
  • Location: ilminster Somerset
  • Location: ilminster Somerset

    latest news

    if only we had clear skies tonight good chance 35% of aurora tonight due to the persistant coronal hole not a coronal mass ejection as reported else where

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_hole

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

    :Issued: 2007 Oct 25 1208 UTC

    :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

    #--------------------------------------------------------------------#

    GEOALERT BRU298

    UGEOA 30512 71025 1202/ 9930/

    10252 22252 30252

    99999

    PLAIN

    NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 25 Oct 2007 until 27

    Oct 2007

    PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 016

    PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 037

    PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2007 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 013

    COMMENT: Flaring conditions are quiet. Between 10 and 11 UT, the

    co-rotating interaction region, the precursor of the fast solar wind

    stream emanating from the coronal hole, probably arrived. Active to

    minor storm conditions are expected.

    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

    expected to be at quiet to active levels due to a coronal hole high

    speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position on day one (25

    October). Minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm

    periods at high latitudes are possible throughout the forecast

    period (25 - 27 October).

    Edited by blackdown
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