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9 day's blank, 203 for 2018 60%

Solar flux 68

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With regards to the forecast for solar cycle 25 there is a link between a longer minimum favouring a weaker amplitude to follow but less of a link between a solar cycle causing a lower minimum to follow so it seems the minimum leads the peak. 

Since we are 30 months in to our cycle and now somewhere near 400 spotless days we are approaching the time where we will find out if this minimum will be what we dream of. Typically shorter and less deep minima see the sharper fall and then quickly rebound (month 33 is average) with cycles like the last one seeing a slower decent. If in 6 months we are still flatlining then chances are we will smash records given that we are running well ahead of 08.

SC25_evol0.png

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

With regards to the forecast for solar cycle 25 there is a link between a longer minimum favouring a weaker amplitude to follow but less of a link between a solar cycle causing a lower minimum to follow so it seems the minimum leads the peak. 

Since we are 30 months in to our cycle and now somewhere near 400 spotless days we are approaching the time where we will find out if this minimum will be what we dream of. Typically shorter and less deep minima see the sharper fall and then quickly rebound (month 33 is average) with cycles like the last one seeing a slower decent. If in 6 months we are still flatlining then chances are we will smash records given that we are running well ahead of 08.

SC25_evol0.png

Not being funny, SB: I get the correlation but what makes the link?

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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not being funny, SB: I get the correlation but what makes the link?

No idea.

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Just now, summer blizzard said:

No idea.

Me neither!😁

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21 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

With regards to the forecast for solar cycle 25 there is a link between a longer minimum favouring a weaker amplitude to follow but less of a link between a solar cycle causing a lower minimum to follow so it seems the minimum leads the peak. 

Since we are 30 months in to our cycle and now somewhere near 400 spotless days we are approaching the time where we will find out if this minimum will be what we dream of. Typically shorter and less deep minima see the sharper fall and then quickly rebound (month 33 is average) with cycles like the last one seeing a slower decent. If in 6 months we are still flatlining then chances are we will smash records given that we are running well ahead of 08.

SC25_evol0.png

Cant be certain without actually measuring the gradient, but the current decline does look more gradual than previous cycles, even a bit more gradual than 23.

 

comparison_recent_cycles.png

Looking at the graph, Cycle 24 sees a 98 sunspot decline in 49 months, so 2 sunspots per month

Cycle 23 has a decline of 171 sunspots in 68 months which is 2.5 sunspots per month.

Cycles 22 and 21 look far steeper than both.

Edited by Snowy L

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Sunspot AR 2729 producing B class solar flare. Coronal hole 1million km across the equator nearly bisecting the solar disk.

KP index=1=quiet.

Thermosphere Climate Index is reading 3.81 billion watts=cold.

Radio sun 10.7cm flux Sfu 71

Sunspotless days to date 2018=203 running at 60%

Solar wind=383.7km per second.

Edited by Minus 10

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58 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Cant be certain without actually measuring the gradient, but the current decline does look more gradual than previous cycles, even a bit more gradual than 23.

 

comparison_recent_cycles.png

Looking at the graph, Cycle 24 sees a 98 sunspot decline in 49 months, so 2 sunspots per month

Cycle 23 has a decline of 171 sunspots in 68 months which is 2.5 sunspots per month.

Cycles 22 and 21 look far steeper than both.

Yeah, the gradient does actually look shallower on that chart. It's just that out lower starting spot has put us ahead. 

With us now in 15th spot for spotless years it will be interesting to see how 2019 and 2020 challenge the top years.

SC25_year.png

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.. Guys, if we only took the data for Q3 this year then what percentage of spotless days were there (and Q4 so far). 

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

.. Guys, if we only took the data for Q3 this year then what percentage of spotless days were there (and Q4 so far). 

Using SILSO counts:

Q3 Jul/Aug/Sep = 27/14/23 = 69.57% (out of 92 days)

Q4 Oct/Nov/Dec = 20/16/4 = 59.70% (out of 67 days)

The Boulder count will be higher because - for whatever reason - they have counted more spotless days this cycle (340 versus 308 for SILSO). 

I'd caution against using simple extrapolation. Remember there are two physical processes (albeit connected) in progress: the winding down of SC24 characterised by sunspot activity around the Sun's equator and SC25 starting up characterised by high latitude spots (or just active areas) with reversed polarity. In recent weeks, we had two SC25 active areas in the space of a few days. 

 

Edited by Yarmy

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Sunspot ar2729 has a strong stable magnetic field which poses no threat for solar flares.

Kp index=3=quiet

Thermosphere climate index...3.88 billion watts=cold.

Radio sun 10.7cm flux...70sfu.

Solar wind...365.3km/sec

Edited by Minus 10
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Sunspot ar2729 has a stable magnetic field and poses no threats for solar flares.

Kp index=3=quiet.

As of yesterdays update, thermosphere climate index reading 3.67 billion watts, getting closer to that all time record cold set in feb 2009, the modern space age that is.

Radio sun 10.7cm flux, 70 sfu.

Solar wind 532.1km/sec

Edited by Minus 10
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2 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

Sunspot ar2729 has a stable magnetic field and poses no threats for solar flares.

Kp index=3=quiet.

As of yesterdays update, thermosphere climate index reading 3.67 billion watts, getting closer to that all time record cold set in feb 2009, the modern space age that is.

Radio sun 10.7cm flux, 70 sfu.

Solar wind 532.1km/sec

 Sorry to be a pedant but is it not 36.7 billion watts?

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5 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Sorry to be a pedant but is it not 36.7 billion watts?

Correct, sorry about that...typo

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Departing sunspot ar2729 is throwing off minor b class flares.

Thermosphere climate index...35.5 billion watts, getting colder.

Radio sun...10.7cm flux, 70sfu.

Kp index=3=quiet.

Solar wind=588.2km/sec

Total sunspotless days so far=203 running at 59%

Edited by Minus 10

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Departing sunspot ar2729 is crackling and throwing minor b class flares.

Thermosphere climate index=34.0billion watts.

Radio sun 10.7cm flux, 72sfu

Kp index=2=quiet

Solar wind 578.6km/sec

Edited by Minus 10

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Just as one spot departs another forms.....

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  Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.40x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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4 hours ago, SteveB said:

Just as one spot departs another forms.....

Yep, that pesky spot has ruined my guess of 220 spotless days!

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Radio sun...10.7cm flux...72sfu

Thermosphere climate index 34.4 billion watts=cold.

Kp index=2=quiet.

Solar wind 503.4km/sec

Sunspot ar2730 has developed.

204 sunspotless days so far 2018.

 

Edited by Minus 10

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Sunspot ar2730 is small and poses no threat for strong solar flares.

 Radio sun Solar flux 10.7cm flux, 71 sfu

Thermosphere climate index=34.4 billion watts=cold.

Kp index=1=quiet.

Solar wind...453.4km/sec.

 

Edited by Minus 10

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Sunspot number: 0

Updated 13 Dec 2018

Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 205 days (59%)

  The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu

Edited by Katrine Basso
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Kp index=0=quiet.

Solar wind  411.1km/sec

Edited by Minus 10

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13th December update.

Thermosphere climate index   34.2billion watts=cold.

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