shuggee

Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

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21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Probably worth saying that 2007 is in the top 25 years too and although the winters turned colder, the summers were probably the more notable (bar winter 2010).

We did get the summer of 95 just before a minima though. 

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Summer 1996 was pretty respectable. The summers weren't that bad, IMO around that minimum compared to the summers around the last minimum. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Summer 1996 was pretty respectable. The summers weren't that bad, IMO around that minimum compared to the summers around the last minimum. 

 

 

The studies suggest the effects of low summer ice and low sunspots are similar in producing very wavy patterns in the jet stream.... maybe a double whammy in 2007? Lots of other factors to consider in circulation patterns, these will also dictate if we benefit from a ridge or get stuck in a trough.

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On 22 March 2017 at 21:45, damianslaw said:

I think it is a notable feature that the cold winters of 08-09 - 10-11 coincided with the last solar minimum coming on the back of a lengthy run of very mild winters in the main - against the background warming that has taken place since the late 90's in particular. There appears a trend for cold winters to occur when at the bottom/peak of the solar min and when just getting out of it, with this is mind winter 18-19 will be when we have a greater chance of a cold winter than next.. if the theory pans out.

The last solar min period preceeding 08-09 was 85-86 I think and we had a cold winter then, followed by the bitter cold of Jan 1987 and generally a cold 2 years in 1986 and 1987. Doesn't always result in cold winters though, I think the previous cold minima period was early 70's when we had a run of mild winters.. One very notable change occured during summer 07, the jetstream became very southerly and this pattern lasted in the main through until summer 13, when a quick shift occured to a very northerly displaced one.. so something to keep an eye on next summer is whether we see a sudden switch in the position of the jetstream.. all a while off yet.

What was notable about the last solar minimum was how strong Greenland blocking was. I don't think I have seen blocking in that region that strong and persistent for a long time, they were few +ve NAO months in that period. Every month in 2010 was a -ve NAO month. Scandinavian blocks were very limited. It could explain why we had a colder winter and months in that period than occurred with the mid 1990s solar minimum.

The previous solar minimum had a lot of Scandinavian blocking around 1995 to 1997. The cold was less impressive though apart from that last week in December 1995.  January and December 2010 were colder than any month in the 1990s and 10th March-9th April 2013 CET was colder than January 1997.

 

Edited by Weather-history

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

What was notable about the last solar minimum was how strong Greenland blocking was. I don't think I have seen blocking in that region that strong and persistent for a long time, they were few +ve NAO months in that period. Every month in 2010 was a -ve NAO month. Scandinavian blocks were very limited. It could explain why we had a colder winter and months in that period than occurred with the mid 1990s solar minimum.

The previous solar minimum had a lot of Scandinavian blocking around 1995 to 1997. The cold was less impressive though apart from that last week in December 1995.  January and December 2010 were colder than any month in the 1990s and 10th March-9th April 2013 CET was colder than January 1997.

 

Yes there was a difference between the synoptics of the last solar min period and the one before as you describe, and indeed the one before that around 85-87 which also saw much more in the way of scandi blocking than greenland blocking, Feb 86, Aug/Sept 86 being an extreme case in point. Perhaps the rapid loss of ice in the arctic is one reason I wonder? 

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