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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
18 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is this the longest stretch since 2009?

yes since 2009/10

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
23 hours ago, jonboy said:

yes since 2009/10

Nearly -

"The sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 12 consecutive days.  If today ends without a sunspot, the number will increase to 13, matching the longest stretch of blank suns since April of 2010. This is yet another sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a deep minimum expected in 2019-2020."

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Nearly -

"The sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 12 consecutive days.  If today ends without a sunspot, the number will increase to 13, matching the longest stretch of blank suns since April of 2010. This is yet another sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a deep minimum expected in 2019-2020."

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Looking good!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
22 hours ago, bobbydog said:

Nearly -

"The sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 12 consecutive days.  If today ends without a sunspot, the number will increase to 13, matching the longest stretch of blank suns since April of 2010. This is yet another sign that the sunspot cycle is crashing toward a deep minimum expected in 2019-2020."

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Laymans has updated to 15 days but notes 0 pixels so I would think the 13 on spaceweather is a give me as they are a day behind.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
20 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Laymans has updated to 15 days but notes 0 pixels so I would think the 13 on spaceweather is a give me as they are a day behind.

The spaceweather website hasn't updated since yesterday. Spaceweather live reports no sunspots therefore we have now matched the longest run since 2010!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

The space weather site uses the Boulder (NOAA) count. The official International Sunspot number is here (the file gets updated frequently as observations come in during the day):

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

(Technically, the counts are estimates until the end of the month)

The Layman's count is based on a false assumption, but I've explained that so many times I've given up bothering.:D

There's a ton of spotless day stats here:

http://sidc.be/silso/spotless

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
4 hours ago, Yarmy said:

The space weather site uses the Boulder (NOAA) count. The official International Sunspot number is here (the file gets updated frequently as observations come in during the day):

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

(Technically, the counts are estimates until the end of the month)

The Layman's count is based on a false assumption, but I've explained that so many times I've given up bothering.:D

There's a ton of spotless day stats here:

http://sidc.be/silso/spotless

 

 

I see 2008 and 2009 hold 4th and 5th place in the top 25 years with spotless days in the last 168 years!

Can we beat that during this solar minimum?....

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 hours ago, SteveB said:

Moved on to 15 spotless day's

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I notice they call 2009/10 a deep solar minimum. I wonder what they will call this one?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
1 minute ago, jonboy said:

I notice they call 2009/10 a deep solar minimum. I wonder what they will call this one?

Deep deep solar minimum:D

A bit disappointing if we don't see a cold Winter in the next 4-5 Winters knowing that they coincide with grand minimas! 

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Deep deep solar minimum:D

A bit disappointing if we don't see a cold Winter in the next 4-5 Winters knowing that they coincide with grand minimas! 

I would hope for two or three!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Just now, jonboy said:

I would hope for two or three!!!

Two or three deep deep's or two or three cold Winters!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Two or three deep deep's or two or three cold Winters!

Cold winters but I do believe the next cycle is likely to be less active than the present one so yes two deep deep's and I don't expect cycle 26 to be as active as 23 but more like the present 24.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I'm not holding my breath, been burnt to many times.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

Looks like the current stretch will end tomorrow. Does look like a deep minimum will be upon us soon  though. I'm not expecting much change this winter but next winter (2018/2019) could well be cold if the theory holds out. Will recent warming override that though? Only time will tell..........

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Northern lights on show tonight

http://www.shetland.org/60n/webcams/cliff-cam-3

Yes SS

i tought that i would get a screengrab and it's looking good there at the moment:)

Untitled.thumb.png.62f611825cc2755504e8d74337e919d2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 21/03/2017 at 15:35, drgl said:

Looks like the current stretch will end tomorrow. Does look like a deep minimum will be upon us soon  though. I'm not expecting much change this winter but next winter (2018/2019) could well be cold if the theory holds out. Will recent warming override that though? Only time will tell..........

I think it is a notable feature that the cold winters of 08-09 - 10-11 coincided with the last solar minimum coming on the back of a lengthy run of very mild winters in the main - against the background warming that has taken place since the late 90's in particular. There appears a trend for cold winters to occur when at the bottom/peak of the solar min and when just getting out of it, with this is mind winter 18-19 will be when we have a greater chance of a cold winter than next.. if the theory pans out.

The last solar min period preceeding 08-09 was 85-86 I think and we had a cold winter then, followed by the bitter cold of Jan 1987 and generally a cold 2 years in 1986 and 1987. Doesn't always result in cold winters though, I think the previous cold minima period was early 70's when we had a run of mild winters.. One very notable change occured during summer 07, the jetstream became very southerly and this pattern lasted in the main through until summer 13, when a quick shift occured to a very northerly displaced one.. so something to keep an eye on next summer is whether we see a sudden switch in the position of the jetstream.. all a while off yet.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think it is a notable feature that the cold winters of 08-09 - 10-11 coincided with the last solar minimum coming on the back of a lengthy run of very mild winters in the main - against the background warming that has taken place since the late 90's in particular. There appears a trend for cold winters to occur when at the bottom/peak of the solar min and when just getting out of it, with this is mind winter 18-19 will be when we have a greater chance of a cold winter than next.. if the theory pans out.

The last solar min period preceeding 08-09 was 85-86 I think and we had a cold winter then, followed by the bitter cold of Jan 1987 and generally a cold 2 years in 1986 and 1987. Doesn't always result in cold winters though, I think the previous cold minima period was early 70's when we had a run of mild winters.. One very notable change occured during summer 07, the jetstream became very southerly and this pattern lasted in the main through until summer 13, when a quick shift occured to a very northerly displaced one.. so something to keep an eye on next summer is whether we see a sudden switch in the position of the jetstream.. all a while off yet.

But the even colder winter of 1947 coincided with a Solar max?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 3/21/2017 at 10:36, SteveB said:

Deep deep solar minimum:D

A bit disappointing if we don't see a cold Winter in the next 4-5 Winters knowing that they coincide with grand minimas! 

Probably worth saying that 2007 is in the top 25 years too and although the winters turned colder, the summers were probably the more notable (bar winter 2010).

We did get the summer of 95 just before a minima though. 

..........

It may be truer to say that spotless years may give a bias towards wet summers/cold winters but that the correlation is not terribly high. The opposite for solar maxima. 

..

I add that we need 160 to be in that top 25 list this year. At current pace we'd fall short but if we get longer runs later in the year then it's possible. 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Probably worth saying that 2007 is in the top 25 years too and although the winters turned colder, the summers were probably the more notable (bar winter 2010).

We did get the summer of 95 just before a minima though. 

.

Summer 1996 was pretty respectable. The summers weren't that bad, IMO around that minimum compared to the summers around the last minimum. 

 

 

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