Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[kar999]

G3 storm in progress but no chance of clear skies here at the moment.

[frogesque]

6 minutes ago, kar999 said:

G3 storm in progress but no chance of clear skies here at the moment.

Same here! Will keep looking though.

[Mapantz]

It's going nuts - another red alert 238nT

[Polar Maritime]

Kpm 6 Storm expected later, There have been some wonderful pictures on the net from the far North over the past few days. 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Aurora showing now on Shetland Cliff Cam 3.

[jethro]

A question for you clever lot.....is there any kind of pattern to aurora happening? Is it possible to predict/anticipate or is it totally random? Asking because I'm going oop north in a few weeks time, as there's zero chance of ever seeing anything down here, I'm hoping to be in with a chance in the north.

[Polar Maritime]

On 27/10/2016 at 19:09, jethro said:

A question for you clever lot.....is there any kind of pattern to aurora happening? Is it possible to predict/anticipate or is it totally random? Asking because I'm going oop north in a few weeks time, as there's zero chance of ever seeing anything down here, I'm hoping to be in with a chance in the north.

Im up in the Highlands myself next week, (Strontian) hoping to at least catch a glimps. Just keep an eye on here.. 

Kp5 Storm currently for the next 24hr.

 

[frogesque]

On 27/10/2016 at 19:09, jethro said:

A question for you clever lot.....is there any kind of pattern to aurora happening? Is it possible to predict/anticipate or is it totally random? Asking because I'm going oop north in a few weeks time, as there's zero chance of ever seeing anything down here, I'm hoping to be in with a chance in the north.

Space weather, Solarham and aurora text alerts are all good. Problem for many parts of Highland Scotland is connectivity. You may struggle to get mobile or wifi.

Aurora occur sporadically but are more or less predictable these days. Solar activity, either sunspots producing CMEs or coronal holes bombard space with energetic particles, if enough intersect Earth orbit then you are in with a chance. What is very unpredictable is the strength and type of aurora. It maybe an uninspiring stable green band or you may be lucky and get the all singing all dancing full blown multicoloured light show.

Regrettably there are no guarantees and the local weather often conspires to block any sightings with murk and low grey cloud. Sometimes though a fairly short drive can get you into a rain shadow and clear skies.

I would also advise casing the area. During daylight have a look around, check that you can get a good view to the NW, N, NE without streetlights. Also farm and cottages with 500w security lights can totally spoil the experience so check you best spots after dark as well.

If it's you first aurora I would also advise you to just enjoy and absorb the experience. Nice warm clothing and a hot flask help. Unless you are an experienced night time photographer I wouldn't bother too much with the camera, you can spend more time faffing with buttons and settings than watching. By all means take some snaps, they may turn out better than you expect but the type of photos you get on Space weather take luck, patience and experience as well as some fairly expensive kit. (SLR, fast, wide angle lens, tripod and cable release are a bare minimum)

Edit, aurorae can be fairly faint, with a sort of milk in water hue to the naked eye. They are also expansive and can cover almost half the sky on a good night. You will definitely NOT need binoculars although useful to have if you want to have a look at stars or planets in some of best dark skies you can find.

Above all, enjoy the very best of Scotland's scenery and good luck!

Edited October 29, 2016 by frogesque

[jethro]

Thank you for the replies, guess I'll just have to keep everything crossed. Not going as far as Scotland though, staying at the Tan Hill Inn for a few days, it's in the middle of nowhere (North Yorks), not a streetlight for miles and when there's aurora around they tend to get quite a good view there.

[jonboy]

Space Weather call a spotless day whereas the laymans sunspot count which uses the original method of counting has called the last 14 days spotless. whichever way you look at it the sun cycle is in steep decline and this rapid fall off in activity not seen for many cycles will be impacting our climate

[jonboy]

Another spotless day called by Space Weather today whereas the old method has counted the last 20 spotless. This is indeed a sharp decline in activity which in part is impacting on the weather patterns we are now seeing. I fully expect this and following winters to be colder than anything we have seen for at least 100 years

[summer blizzard]

2016 total: 47 days  
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

The last 6 months have seen us go from 0 to 47 i believe. 

[Snowy L]

Should beat 2010, according to Solen we have been spotless for 7 consecutive days now

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

Solar flux under 80 for over a month now too. Surely solar minimum territory?

[jethro]

Anyone know if it's still reckoned we're heading into a deep solar minimum - another Dalton style period (or perhaps lower)?

[jonboy]

7 hours ago, jethro said:

Anyone know if it's still reckoned we're heading into a deep solar minimum - another Dalton style period (or perhaps lower)?

we certainly look lower than cycle 5 so more Dalton than Maunder

[Polar Maritime]

 

[Weather-history]

The fog was thick enough to allow the sunspot to be visible

 

[summer blizzard]

On 11/24/2016 at 15:39, jethro said:

Anyone know if it's still reckoned we're heading into a deep solar minimum - another Dalton style period (or perhaps lower)?

We're predicted a double minimum so between Dalton and Maunder. From now we'll miss a real maximum in the early 2020's, see another dead minimum close to 2030 but then miss another peak in that decade and see the other minimum so sunspot activity should not even reach 2014 levels until near enough 2050. 

[Polar Maritime]

Taken last night in Scotland, Kp4 continues.

[jethro]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Taken last night in Scotland, Kp4 continues.

Perleeeeeeze let there be a show of lights next week. Keeping everything crossed.

[frogesque]

Kp 5, Bz negative and tadah! We have low cloud and misty grot. 

Anyone got a clear view?

Edit: Auroral oval view line looks to be as far south as N. Ireland, Cumbria and Newcastle.

Edited December 9, 2016 by frogesque

[Polar Maritime]

Some lovely shots on the net from last night.

 

[Weather-history]

 

[drgl]

Spotless again

 

[jonboy]

5 minutes ago, drgl said:

Spotless again

 

And F10 flux trending very low