Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Mondy]

If 930is just off to the far right (West) and is still showing - just - as you say frog, what's the activity on the far left(East)?

http://www.solarcycle24.com/xrayimager.htm

[frogesque]

False dawn for Yorkshire?????

I wouldn't think so although it's worth a look out if the sky is clear and there might be some meteors, about (Ursids: 17-25th December, peaking on 22nd.) and it's a new moon or thereabouts.

Just checked, Kp is only 5 at present so it would only be a very off chance for aurora - I'm clouded out and misty so can't see owt!

[Claudia]

Hello, I have been learning alot from you all and watched the recent activity around the 15th but it only went up to kp7 http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/nonono.gif I belive I need a kp9 for Norfolk. Anyway last night I just had a look at the kp map around midnight and it was KP TEN What with the freezing fog I managed to find a hole facing north out at sea this was around 3am. This is where I am puzzled I could see there was cloud at the horizon but I assume this would not affect anything as the stars were out metors um whizzing?. So is it because I had a 3 hour gap in the reading and me finding a hole in the cloud ? Or is it down to more than just KP if we have a high KP but the space wind is in the wrong direction !?

It all seemed so perfect it was ten, we were in the middle of the big red chunk, so...............?

Also for those of you that were in KP7 range on the 15th it stayed that level most of the night so does that mean as long as you had clear skys it was a constant light show or even if the KP is the correct level it still depends on somthing else ?

What are the chances of me seeing the auora in Norfolk http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Thankyou for any help given !

[Mondy]

Hi Claudia. I've checked the recent KP charts and can't find a reading of KP 10. Have you been looking at the correct chart? This is the KP chart: http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif?

You'll see only a KP of 5 was reached during the past 24 hours.

A Kp9 would most definetly give you a good chance of seeing Aurora in Norfolk. I'm stumped to remember a Kp9 though

Read the Terms and Definitions on this site; it will help you understand more, i'm sure.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/nonono.gif

Edited December 21, 2006 by Mondy

[frogesque]

Hi Claudia:

I think you may have been looking at this map http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/pmapN.html which shows Activity Level on a scale from 1 to 10. It was very red and at 10 last night but the border only just brushed the northern tip of Scotland. I don't know how exactly its calculated but it is different from the Kp index.

Kp is probably the most reliable indicator for the UK. Last week it reached 8 and while it produced aurora visible from Scotland and possibly into N England it wasn't spectacular - producing mostly bands of pale green luminous 'fog' in the NW with little structure although it did begin to pulse at times. The best colours were displayed very briefly as the storm subsided (this seems to happen sometimes)

Aurora are magical. I've known them bright enough to read the time on a watch, I've seen a full and very dynamic coronal display almost directly overhead from a local substorm (magnificent!) and I've also seen weird shapes drift lazily over the sky. I have also seen intense red flames dancing and a brilliant writhing green rope hanging in the sky. All from Scotland. We don't often get good displays but when we do they often have much more interesting colours than the ones in say Norway or Alaska

There's ususally a lot of dull and unintersting hanging about to do during a display but no two are ever the same and you never know when a boring piece of sky is going to erupt with rays and curtains. Watching a full display covering half the sky on a clear night would have almost anyone believing in gods and angels - it's the sheer scale of the whole phenomena that's so awe inspiring.

A word of warning, photographs rarely do it justice. Somtimes the results are lurid whereas in real life the structure and colour are normally quite subtle (though not always) and I lowered the saturation on mine to something aproaching realistic. Cameras are very sensitive and pick up a lot of light and colour a dark adapted eye doesn't normally see but they can't record the dynamics of a fast show.

Sorry - I kind of dribbled on a bit there http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

Edited December 21, 2006 by frogesque

[Claudia]

Oops it must have been the lure of the pretty colours on the chart thanks for pointing that out Frogesque had the chart I was using . I didnt notice any dribble by the way, I always think its nice when people find somthing they are truely passionate about http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/yahoo.gif

A year or two ago there was a photograph in the local paper it looked like it had been taken out of someones window as you could see some lights and trees but clearly I would have to be very lucky indeed to see this. never mind I get to see the metors still and you never know !

Thankyou for your help !

[Mondy]

Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,"

Pdf has lots more reading: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/h...06-preprint.pdf

Edited December 22, 2006 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

The Farside image of the sun now shows another large sunspot forming at a point directly away from us. I wonder if it'll oblige with some Hogmanay lights when it turns Earth-side?

So far as the predicted activity levels for the next cycle.......sounds like a bit of excitement is afoot!

Probably not a bad time for Claudia to discover an interest in solar activity.

Edited December 22, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Farside sunspot:

Monster spot if it stays intact and is magnetically twisted

[tugmistress]

We had a few northern lights here the other night, from here it was green and white and i was also told there were some the night before too. think it was thursday i saw them

[Mondy]

Summut's coming!

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'image' of the far side sunspot looks quite big! Space weather have it hauling into view in 3 days or so and then, for an earth shot, we'd need to add another couple of days so early Jan for anything interesting I think. I don't know what is on the limb at the moment, Coronal hole?

[Mondy]

Sadly, and i quote Solarcycle24.com

The new region rotating into view appears to be very inactive, so no threat for flare activity this time around. We were spoiled earlier this month with sunspot 930, perhaps we may be slipping back into a period of very low activity for a while.

Just like the bloody weather!

Edited December 24, 2006 by Mondy

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Renewed activity?

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/rt_activity/

Could be building to something this evening?

ffO

Edited December 26, 2006 by full_frontal_occlusion

[Mondy]

Not sure FFO. I'm wondering if that's an error occured.

The Geomagnetic field is quiet, the solar wind is average in speed, K-index is 1. There was a B-class flare yesterday, but i doubt that's caused the alert. Unless a coronal hole has been created.

[frogesque]

Lancs has false alerts from time to time, probably ate too much Christmas pud . Nothing else is indicating heightened activity.

[Mondy]

Sunspot 930 is set to reappear in the upcoming week over the eastern limb. Looking at the farside images from the past week, it may have a second sunspot along with it. It could be that the spot has broken in half, or a totally new spot altogether. Activity appears to be low however. No CME's have been spotted thus far on the eastern limb.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

[shuggee]

It's doing it again:

[Gray-Wolf]

Some activity for the north. Space weather are warning of auroras from a strong solar wind.

[frogesque]

LASCO C2 and LASCO C3 show a CME coming over the western (LHS) of the Sun.

GOES X-RAY only shows a pretty mild B9 flare but it's not Earth directed so could be larger.

At least we are getting some activity

[Mondy]

At last again! Flux has been flatter than a flat pancake of recent. Good to see!

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

[frogesque]

At last again! Flux has been flatter than a flat pancake of recent. Good to see!

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

From spaceweather "X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: C6 0715 UT Jan25 "

LASCO C3 hasn't been updated since 17.42 (I think they use UT or GMT) on the 24th Jan but I'll be interested to see the vid when they get round to it. Looks as if a huge gob of stuff went off sideways when this flare blew.

I've also checked back it's on the Eastern limb (LHS rotating towards Earth) not the West limb as I said earlier. I knew what I meant but I wish astronomers would be consistent with their conventions.

[frogesque]

Update: http://sidc.oma.be/current/presto.html

"PRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Thu Jan 25 2007, 1228 UT

An active region currently just behind the East limb (NOAA AR 0933 during the previous rotation) produced two long-duration flares: B9.0 peaking at 14:52 UT yesterday and C6.3 peaking at 07:12 today. Both flares were accompanied by wide CMEs, but the source region position behind the east limb makes their arrival to the Earth unlikely. More C and even M flares are probable from this active region.

We expect the arrival of a fast solar wind stream from the low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions up to the minor storm level are possible starting from January 28. "

[Mondy]

Seems to be our old friend 930, then 933 making another appearance

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems to be our old friend 930, then 933 making another appearance

Whichever it is it'd better not pop a shot like the recent one in our direction I think. There looked to be quite a bit of 'matter' jetted out with the last ejection and I don't fancy being 8 minutes away from one of those!