Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

4 days blank,  36 for 2021, 38%

Solar flux 72

Thermosphere: 6.66

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.6

Adjusted Flux Density  73.5 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.0

Adjusted Flux Density  750.1 = low

[Katrine Basso]

FLYING TO THE VOLCANO: Iceland's Geldingadalur volcano has turned into an popular tourist attraction---especially since auroras were sighted above the glowing lava. Early this morning, Tuesday, April 6th, Brian Emfinger saw auroras before he even reached the Reykjanes peninsula.

"I was flying high above Greenland en route to the volcano when auroras appeared outside the window," says Emfinger. "I could see them with my unaided eye, and the camera picked them up easily."

There was no special reason for the display. Geomagnetic indices were low and the solar wind was blowing slowly when Emfinger looked out the window. Sometimes auroras just happen around the Arctic Circle. Let's hope they happen again when he reaches Geldingadalur.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.6

Adjusted Flux Density  72.8 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.3

Adjusted Flux Density  72.5 = low

[SteveB]

1 day blank,  37 for 2021, 38%

Solar flux 76

Thermosphere: 6.38

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.0

Adjusted Flux Density  74.2 = low

[SteveB]

2 days blank, 38 for 2021, 38%

Solar flux 74

Thermosphere: 6.56

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 77.8

Adjusted Flux Density  78.0 = low

[SteveB]

3 days blank,  39 for 2021, 38%

Solar flux 78

Thermosphere: 6.38

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.4

Adjusted Flux Density  70.7 = low

[Don]

14 hours ago, SteveB said:

3 days blank,  39 for 2021, 38%

Solar flux 78

Thermosphere: 6.38

If SC25 is going to be strong, we'll need to see signs of a ramp up in the next few months?

Edited April 10, 2021 by Don

[SteveB]

4 days blank,  40 for 2021, 40%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 6.34

Hopefully not Don, still think solar minimum is our best chance of colder winters.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.9

Adjusted Flux Density  71.2 = low

[JeffC]

23 hours ago, Don said:

If SC25 is going to be strong, we'll need to see signs of a ramp up in the next few months?

As far as I'm aware SC 25 is forecast to be of similar activity to SC 24. I can't recall where I read it but one prediction said it could be lower than 24...

[SteveB]

5 days blank, 41 for 2021, 40%

Solar Flux 73

Thermosphere: 6.30

[summer blizzard]

There are various predictions however personally I favour a weak solar cycle peaking in 2022-2025.

Edited April 12, 2021 by summer blizzard

[JeffC]

13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

There are various predictions however personally I favour a weak solar cycle peaking in 2022-2025.

That would do me!

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 82.8

Adjusted Flux Density  83.3 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.8

Adjusted Flux Density  73.3 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.4

Adjusted Flux Density  74.9 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.3

Adjusted Flux Density  74.8 = low

[Crepuscular Ray]

According to spaceweather.com, SC 25 might peak earlier than projected, in 2024.

 

www.spaceweather.com

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

According to spaceweather.com, SC 25 might peak earlier than projected, in 2024.

 

www.spaceweather.com

That's interesting, would make it a 8-9 year cycle? Unless it has a long tail...