Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Uncle_Barty]

Forecasts of possibly G3 storms with a K of up to 7 over the next couple of days. Keep those eyes peeled, especially up north.

This is a result of the C7.4 flare on Monday which generated a full halo CME aimed at Earth.

Solar activity taking a slight breather now as sfi declines, but a returning active region will rotate into view in 3-4 days.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 82.1

Adjusted Flux Density 79.6 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.9

Adjusted Flux Density 79.5 = low

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmm......

New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, new research predicts

PHYS.ORG

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In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

 

[summer blizzard]

We might manage a few days soon, we have a dying sunspot and a weak one coming.

[Gray-Wolf]

11 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmmm......

New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, new research predicts

PHYS.ORG

---

In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

 

I'm surprised this hasn't drawn any comments?

I've had 2 decades of promises that we are heading into a 'Maunder Like' minimum (and of the 'Global Cooling' such would bring us so we ought not worry/plan for AGW impacts?)

If this team are even in the ballpark with their projection for a Sunspot max over 200 then surely, if a Maunder min brings cooling, then surely hyper active cycle adds into our warming woes whilst raising the spectre of satellite losses and burned out transformers across the CME facing side of the planet (should we see X class flares frequently striking Earth?)?

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.7

Adjusted Flux Density 79.2 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 82.4

Adjusted Flux Density 79.9 = low

[jethro]

On 11/12/2020 at 08:01, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm surprised this hasn't drawn any comments?

I've had 2 decades of promises that we are heading into a 'Maunder Like' minimum (and of the 'Global Cooling' such would bring us so we ought not worry/plan for AGW impacts?)

If this team are even in the ballpark with their projection for a Sunspot max over 200 then surely, if a Maunder min brings cooling, then surely hyper active cycle adds into our warming woes whilst raising the spectre of satellite losses and burned out transformers across the CME facing side of the planet (should we see X class flares frequently striking Earth?)?

Morning GW, long time no speak.....

Not a clue where this solar cycle is heading, just have to wait and see for a while. Whether it's high or low and the impact upon temperatures here, there's a bit of a problem with your post above. You've always argued that a Maunder like minimum would have no impact upon temps, that the connect between solar output and Earth temps is tenuous, so small it's considered to be negligible and that it could be discounted. So if a quiet Sun doesn't cool us down, an active Sun won't warm us up. Don't think you need to worry about it

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.1

Adjusted Flux Density 78.6 = low

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Jethro!

Hope you've been keeping well?

You are correct, I do not think the sun's variability gives anything like the forcing needed to calm the Planets warming issues?

I think there is more variability in our pollution driven 'dimming' than from the sun's internal variability? (IMHO?)

As I feel you very much suspect this news release did bring me a tad of satisfaction after the intransigence of those demanding a 'Maunder like Minimum' over these past decades?

That said this 'offset' 22 yr magnetic cycle is something I've been aware of for a few years now and this cycle may well prove how useful a tool it may prove to be for the prediction of cycle strength that this combination of both Solar & Magnetic cycles might prove to be?

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 83.0

Adjusted Flux Density 80.4 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 83.2

Adjusted Flux Density 80.6 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.9

Adjusted Flux Density 79.3 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.94

Adjusted Flux Density 78.8 = low

[JeffC]

Latest Solar Radio Flux Report from DRAO, Penticton

SPACEWEATHER.GC.CA

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HTML version of latest solar radio flux report from DRAO, Penticton

hasn't updated ...so showing same values as yesterday

[SteveB]

1 day blank, 207 for 2020 58%

Solar flux 82

Thermosphere: 6.40

[JeffC]

Still no SF update

[Katrine Basso]

Space Weather by SolarHam

WWW.SOLARHAM.NET

 

[Katrine Basso]

[Uncle_Barty]

On 10/12/2020 at 20:35, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmmm......

New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, new research predicts

PHYS.ORG

---

In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one ...

 

Interesting theory this... will make intriguing viewing to see how this cycle unfolds.

I have posted a more detailed analysis and my thoughts of this cycle so far here:

** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum

SKYWAVESDX.ORG

 

[JeffC]

Still not updated ...anyone got a different source?

[Uncle_Barty]

5 hours ago, JeffC said:

Still not updated ...anyone got a different source?

Here;

Geophysical Alert - WWV text | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV

Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value.

The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html

I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Uncle_Barty

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Here;

Geophysical Alert - WWV text | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV

Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value.

The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html

I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.

 

Thanks...maybe some kit failure or similar

[Uncle_Barty]

It's working again now. 2200z values last night:

Solar flux 89.4 (1au 86.5)

WWV reporting 86, which will be the 2000z value.