Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.6

Adjusted Flux Density 80.3 = low

[Crepuscular Ray]

Giant new, cycle 25 sunspot group emerging over the limb. 

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Giant new, cycle 25 sunspot group emerging over the limb. 

I was hoping for a silent Sun to reduce the issues associated with the planetary heating...

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 82.9

Adjusted Flux Density 81.6 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 86.9

Adjusted Flux Density 85.4 = low

[Weather-history]

[Weather-history]

I'm struggling with this one. Why would that that sunspot group have that much effect?

My point is that 4 of the severest winters of the 20th century occurred around solar maximum, they shouldn't have been if you extrapolate his point, the dice should be well and truly loaded against it

Look at this sunspot chart from December 1978 and we all know what happened from the end of December 

 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 90.7

Adjusted Flux Density 89.1 = low

 

[Katrine Basso]

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: As predicted, Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact on Nov. 6th sparked bright auroras over Utsjoki, Finland

 

[Uncle_Barty]

On 05/11/2020 at 14:11, Weather-history said:

I'm struggling with this one. Why would that that sunspot group have that much effect?

My point is that 4 of the severest winters of the 20th century occurred around solar maximum, they shouldn't have been if you extrapolate his point, the dice should be well and truly loaded against it

Look at this sunspot chart from December 1978 and we all know what happened from the end of December 

 

Personally think that sunspot activity has no discernable effect on our weather at all.

Winters 1978/9 and 1981/2 occurred near to or during solar max, as did 1990/91.

Granted, 1985/6 and 1986/7 were close to solar minimum, but where were the severe winters of 1975/6 and 1976/7?

I can point at both good and bad summers at both solar min and solar max down the years, so I really don't buy it.

Solar flux now into the 90s for the first time since October 2017. We will still get some days when we drop to the low 70s and spotless in the coming months, but these days will get less and less as we move into 2021.

I have seen some suggestions that this cycle could be a big one. Great from my POV if this were to come about, but I have seen nothing at this stage to suggest this cycle will be much different in magnitude to Cycle 24.

 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 93.8

Adjusted Flux Density 92.1 = low

Whoa! It's going up!!

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 90.6

Adjusted Flux Density 88.9 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 92.9

Adjusted Flux Density 91.2 = low

Note how, as the earth gets nearer to the sun due to the elliptical nature of the orbit, the compensation factor has changed from positive to negative, to adjust the reading to 1 sfu which is based on the mean of the distance of earth from the sun.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 91.3

Adjusted Flux Density 89.5 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 93.2

Adjusted Flux Density 91.4 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 89.9

Adjusted Flux Density 88.1 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 87.6

Adjusted Flux Density 85.8 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 85.1

Adjusted Flux Density 83.3 = low

[JeffC]

I think there's a glitch... showing as 

Observed Flux Density 65.5

Adjusted Flux Density 64.1 ....

If that's for real it's a BIG drop...

[JeffC]

Definitely something wrong with previous figures!

Observed Flux Density 82.5

Adjusted Flux Density 80.7 = low

 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 81.6

Adjusted Flux Density 79.8 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 78.7

Adjusted Flux Density 76.9 = low

Suggests recent activity may be on the wane.

Edited November 15, 2020 by JeffC

[SteveB]

1 day blank,  205 for 2020, 64%

Solar flux 79

Thermosphere: 5.62

[JeffC]

11 hours ago, SteveB said:

1 day blank,  205 for 2020, 64%

Solar flux 79

Thermosphere: 5.62

Yay!

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 76.6

Adjusted Flux Density 74.9 = low