Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

3 day's blank,  159 for 2020, 67%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 2.88

[Katrine Basso]

AURORA SEASON BEGINS IN ICELAND: Around the Arctic Circle, sky watchers have been waiting months for this: Nightfall. You can't see auroras without it. In Iceland the wait is over:

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.3

Adjusted Flux Density 71.8 = low

[SteveB]

4 days blank, 160 for 2020, 67%

Solar Flux 70

Thermosphere: 2.90

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.6

Adjusted Flux Density 72.1= low

[SteveB]

5 days blank,  161 for 2020, 67%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 2.98

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.72.2

[SteveB]

6 days blank,  162 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 2.94

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.0

Adjusted Flux Density 71.4 = low

[SteveB]

7 days blank, 163 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 2.96

[Stu_London]

Using the Space Weather methodology the solar min is now 801 spotless days - which is the same as the amount of spotless days in the last minimum.

Be interesting to see how strong SC25 is as this will give pointers as to whether this this is just 2 consecutive deep minimums, or the start of a more significant grand minimum.

 

[summer blizzard]

46 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Using the Space Weather methodology the solar min is now 801 spotless days - which is the same as the amount of spotless days in the last minimum.

Be interesting to see how strong SC25 is as this will give pointers as to whether this this is just 2 consecutive deep minimums, or the start of a more significant grand minimum.

 

The method which suggested SC24 would be a dud is pretty sold on both solar cycle 25 and 26 failing (double minimum) however recent forecasts have been about the same strength as the last cycle rather than weaker so i'm a tad confused. At any rate i'm reasonably optimistic. 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.1

Adjusted Flux Density 71.5 = low

[SteveB]

8 days blank, 164 for 2020 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 2.94

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.2

Adjusted Flux Density 71.6 = low

[SteveB]

9 days blank, 165 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.00

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.0

Adjusted Flux Density 71.4

[SteveB]

10 days blank,  166 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere : 3.10

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.2

Adjusted Flux Density 70.5 = low

[SteveB]

11 days blank, 167 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.07

Edited September 1, 2020 by SteveB

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.5

Adjusted Flux Density 70.8= low

[SteveB]

12 days blank, 168 for 2020, 68%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.31

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 68.9

Adjusted Flux Density 70.1 = low

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the sun it looks like the southern hemisphere is completely dead with massive Coronal Holes however on the northern half there's a chance something could develop although it could just be the remains of our prior sunspots. 

July-August is running around 50% so a drop from previous quarters as things stand albeit the year as a whole should still be on course for about 200 spotless days. 

Thermosphere seems to have warmed over the last week.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 67.8

Adjusted Flux Density 69.0 = very low