Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[karyo]

50 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

'[W]aste several days' of what, exactly?

Any sunspot day is a wasted day as we can't add days to the spotless count.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 70.4

Adjusted Flux Density 72.6 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 71.4

Adjusted Flux Density 73.6 = low

 

[Weather-history]

[summer blizzard]

It's not overly a problem, we only need the second half of the year to average around 66% spotless to jump into the top 10 spotless years again with their beautifully cold statistical bias during winter. 

[Don]

10 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Squeeze the little blighter!

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 71.4

Adjusted Flux Density 73.7 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 71.8

Adjusted Flux Density 74.1 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.6

Adjusted Flux Density 74.9= low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.0

Adjusted Flux Density 74.2 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.3

Adjusted Flux Density 74.4 = low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.0

Adjusted Flux Density 74.1= low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.7

Adjusted Flux Density 74.9 = low

[karyo]

We have a third sunspot emerging! 

[summer blizzard]

Horrid although all producing fairly weak stuff so I think this is just a twin spot and hopefully the southern one goes.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 72.7

Adjusted Flux Density 74.8= low

[Uncle_Barty]

23 hours ago, karyo said:

We have a third sunspot emerging! 

Yes 3 spot groups now, all higher latitude = Cycle 25.

There is now little doubt that solar minimum has passed, and in time will be formally recognised as having been in December 2019. Need a few more months data to be 100% sure, but I would be extremely surprised now if this was not the case.

Early cycle progress will almost certainly be slow - the likely size of the cycle will probably be about the same (or maybe slightly larger) then the last one.

We will still have some very quiet periods this year and into next, and the spotless days count will continue to rise, albeit probably not as quickly as in the last 2 years or so.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.0

Adjusted Flux Density 75.1= low

[Uncle_Barty]

I should add to my last post that assuming we are past the minimum now, average solar activity will very likely continue at little above rock bottom for the next few months - for example, I think it will be into 2021 before we see daily solar flux levels climbing above the 70s for more than the odd day at a time.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.4

Adjusted Flux Density 75.6 = low

[JeffC]

5 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:

I should add to my last post that assuming we are past the minimum now, average solar activity will very likely continue at little above rock bottom for the next few months - for example, I think it will be into 2021 before we see daily solar flux levels climbing above the 70s for more than the odd day at a time.

Aye, consistent slight uptick, still low but not overly so

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.1

Adjusted Flux Density 75.1 = low

 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 74.0

Adjusted Flux Density 76.0 = low

[summer blizzard]

If we can get rid of this sunspot (mid strength - C class flares right now) then it looks we should go quiet on the north side of the sun. There's a chance we may get one on the south side though. 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 73.8

Adjusted Flux Density 75.8 = low