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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

6 days blank, 128 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 2.62

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.1

Adjusted Flux Density 70.3 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

7 days blank,  129 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 2.58

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 67.0

Adjusted Flux Density 69.2 = very low

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

8 days blank,  130 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.53

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 67.9

Adjusted Flux Density 70.2 = low

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

-

Edited by Katrine Basso
Mistaken thread
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

9 days blank,  131 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 2.51

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.6

Adjusted Flux Density 70.9 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10 days blank, 132 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 2.51

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 67.8

Adjusted Flux Density 70.0 = very low

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

11 days blank,  133 for 2020, 74%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 2.44

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just totting up and we are coming in around 75% for Q2. While ahead of 2019 now we should lose ground although the 208 in 2018 is possible to beat.

On a 12 month basis it looks like June 2020 may be declared solar minimum.

The thermosphere cooling is strange given that solar activity was most dead late last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.9

Adjusted Flux Density 71.2 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.9

Adjusted Flux Density 71.3 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We may have had a sunspot yesterday it seems. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

1 day blank, 135 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 2.42

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.6

Adjusted Flux Density 70.9 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just looking at the stats and if we can maintain a 60%+ rate in H2 then we should be able to get a second top 10 spotless year (242 needed). If we achieve that we will have also beaten the last solar cycle for spotless numbers (818 needed).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

2 days blank,  136 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 2.47

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.1

Adjusted Flux Density 70.4 = low

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

3 days blank,  137 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 2.46

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Observed Flux Density 68.9

Adjusted Flux Density 71.2 = low

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

Article here suggesting that solar minimum was reached last November.

largepreview.png
WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

PDF | In our previous article we found a relationship between the adjusted solar flux and the start of sunspot cycles. We used the 13 month smoothed... | Find, read...

While it is probably too early to state this categorically for sure, the slow  but steady increase in the appearance of Cycle 25 spot groups, and some low sunspot numbers/solar flux readings from a year ago dropping from the reckoning, I think the article will end up being pretty close to the mark.

There are also a couple of interesting graphs on solen.info by Jan Alvestad detailing the running 365-day smoothed means of both sunspot numbers and daily solar flux readings. These figures are always centred on 6 months ago, so today's rolling solar flux average over the past year is stated as being for (and centred on) early January. The graph focussing on the 24/25 transition is here

Cycles_24_25_minimum.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
On 27/06/2020 at 13:54, summer blizzard said:

 

On a 12 month basis it looks like June 2020 may be declared solar minimum.

 

Almost correct. see my previous post above.

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