Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

3 days blank, 93 for 2020 74%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.34

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.3

Adjusted Flux Density 70.5 =low

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.3

Adjusted Flux Density 70.5 = low

[SteveB]

4 days blank,  95 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.30

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.5

Adjusted Flux Density 70.7 = low

[SteveB]

5 days blank,  96 for 2020,75%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere 3.32

[SteveB]

6 days blank,  97 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere:3.34

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 67.9

Adjusted Flux Density 69.2 = very low

[SteveB]

7 days blank,  98 for 2020, 75%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 3.33

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 67.8

Adjusted Flux Density 69.1 = V Low

[SteveB]

8 days blank,  99 for 2020, 76%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.32

[SteveB]

9 days blank, 100 for 2020, 76%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 3.34

[summer blizzard]

The big 100 has been hit again for the 4th year in a row. 

Although there's a risk it could all end in the next few months the historical data suggests we are plodding along at near record pace for where we are in the cycle.

With 4 consecutive years of 100+ sunspots (and you'd imagine 200 even if we drop off) we are looking at 1878, 1890, 1902, 1914 and a total between 153-280. The later three analogues had the peak in year 3 suggesting a lower haul than 2019 (last year had a 90%+ spotless rate in Q3 and Q4 so without a collapse in activity the data probably supports that) however the first saw 1878 be the peak year and another 100+ for a fifth time in 1879. 

In terms of the minimum it seems they declare by the month using a 12 month mean. With that in mind i have taken a look and it seems that June (if we score less than 80% spotless) or July (if we score less than 90% spotless) are likely to be the declared minimum of this solar cycle.

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 66.2

Adjusted Flux Density 67.5 = very low

[Katrine Basso]

Sunspot number: 0

Updated 12 May 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 10 days
2020 total: 101 days (76%)

Solar wind
speed: 307.4 km/sec
density: 6.6 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1545 UT X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A0 1326 UT May12
24-hr: A1 0510 UT May12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1550 UT Daily Sun: 12 May 20 The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.34x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
Updated 12 May 2020

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

 

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 68.9

Adjusted Flux Density 70.3 = low

[SteveB]

11 days blank,  102 for 2020, 76%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.34

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.6

Adjusted Flux Density 71.1 = low

[Katrine Basso]

 

 

[SteveB]

12 days blank,  103 for 2020, 76%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.27

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.1

Adjusted Flux Density 70.6 = low

[SteveB]

13 days blank,  104 for 2020, 76%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 3.27

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.0

Adjusted flux density 70.5 = low

[SteveB]

14 days blank, 105 for 2020, 77%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 3.27

Edited May 16, 2020 by SteveB

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 69.0

Adjusted Flux Density 70.5 =  low