Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes but those were SC24 sunspots. Now they are all from 25 and they last longer too. In the first 10 days of 2020 we only have one spotless day.

Sure but you can’t take a sample size of ten days on a solar scale. The next two could be SC24, we could go another two months between spots. 

Solar activity is not uniform, it is a series of peaks and troughs. Some smaller and larger than the proceeding. The last two quarters have had a 90% spotless rate, we will need to see this one and next to draw many conclusions.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It does seem like SC25 is arriving, I’ve read that astrophysicists and NASA are expecting an awakening and a cycle peak as early as 2023.  Now normally low activity cycles are longer than active ones so an unusual one this, so if we see a peak by 2023, one of two things...either a very low maxima is anticipated or a super ramp up is coming?
 

BFTP

[jethro]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It does seem like SC25 is arriving, I’ve read that astrophysicists and NASA are expecting an awakening and a cycle peak as early as 2023.  Now normally low activity cycles are longer than active ones so an unusual one this, so if we see a peak by 2023, one of two things...either a very low maxima is anticipated or a super ramp up is coming?
 

BFTP

Just three years to reach maxima? Blimey. Has that ever happened before or would it be unprecedented? Wonder what they're basing those expectations on.

[Don]

3 hours ago, jethro said:

Just three years to reach maxima? Blimey. Has that ever happened before or would it be unprecedented? Wonder what they're basing those expectations on.

So much for a prolonged minimum!  I take it that’s not great news for the next few winters?  Too early to speculate, I suppose!

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

So much for a prolonged minimum!  I take it that’s not great news for the next few winters?  Too early to speculate, I suppose!

Solar forecasts are pretty useless. Truth is no-one, and I mean no-one, has any solid idea of how the sun is going to behave in the coming years. We only have historic records to base forecasts on- essentially pattern matching.

[Don]

53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Solar forecasts are pretty useless. Truth is no-one, and I mean no-one, has any solid idea of how the sun is going to behave in the coming years. We only have historic records to base forecasts on- essentially pattern matching.

True, but with more SC25 spots appearing, activity is perhaps on the rise after hoping 2020 would start as 2019 finished i.e. prolonged periods with no spots!  However, as others have alluded to, it could easily go spotless again for a few months.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, jethro said:

Just three years to reach maxima? Blimey. Has that ever happened before or would it be unprecedented? Wonder what they're basing those expectations on.

Agreed...I’m perplexed too....very very interesting 

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Don said:

So much for a prolonged minimum!  I take it that’s not great news for the next few winters?  Too early to speculate, I suppose!

No, yet again you misread lack the understanding.  Deep minima grand cycles aren’t just about the sunspots disappearing during schwabe minimas....but how weak the cycles are overall.  So it’s also about how weak the schwabe maxima is too.

 

BFTP

Edited January 10, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Don]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No, yet again you misread lack the understanding.  Deep minima grand cycles aren’t just about the sunspots disappearing during schwabe minimas....but how weak the cycles are overall.  So it’s also about how weak the schwabe maxima is too.

 

BFTP

Aye, what do you mean 'yet again'?  No, I'm certainly no expert on solar activity, but that's slightly rude, don't you think?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Aye, what do you mean 'yet again'?  No, I'm certainly no expert on solar activity, but that's slightly rude, don't you think?

I maybe should have said ‘one’.  It’s a common mistaken response made by many re solar minima....it’s not about the Schwabe cycle (11 year mean cycle). And don’t get too upset or take it personally , it isn’t rude or meant to be at all.  Take it just its meant...a repost to your viewpoint on your post

 

BFTP

[Crepuscular Ray]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No, yet again you misread lack the understanding.  Deep minima grand cycles aren’t just about the sunspots disappearing during schwabe minimas....but how weak the cycles are overall.  So it’s also about how weak the schwabe maxima is too.

 

BFTP

No, Blast. That was just rude.

 

Please post a link to the Schwabe minumum/maximum info and why that's any different to just general solar max/minimum. Last time I looked at anything, he got the solar period wrong.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

No, Blast. That was just rude.

 

Please post a link to the Schwabe minumum/maximum info and why that's any different to just general solar max/minimum. Last time I looked at anything, he got the solar period wrong.

The 11 year min/max IS the Shwabe cycle

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

23 hours ago, jethro said:

Just three years to reach maxima? Blimey. Has that ever happened before or would it be unprecedented? Wonder what they're basing those expectations on.

Not all that shocking. The last cycle was dead until Q2 2010 and had double peaks in 2012 and 2014.

Also space weather confirmed the 2019 number at 273 so we only took 4th but did beat 2008 and 2009.

Edited January 11, 2020 by summer blizzard

[Yarmy]

20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Solar forecasts are pretty useless. Truth is no-one, and I mean no-one, has any solid idea of how the sun is going to behave in the coming years. We only have historic records to base forecasts on- essentially pattern matching.

True. I mentioned way back in the thread that all the SC24 max predictions (45 or so) taken together more or less formed a normal distribution. In other words, about what you'd get if you asked 45 people to pick a number between 80 and 160.

Having said that, the predictions based on physical methods (e.g. polar magnetic field strength during minimum) performed better, as can be seen here:

Solar Cycle 24

USERS.TELENET.BE

---

Een site met informatie over de zon, de zonneactiviteit, de aarde en het ruimteweer

 

Most predictions I've seen so far have been for another weak cycle.

[Katrine Basso]

Just to make things more confusing Silso.com have recorded 4 sun spotless days so far:

07 January : 0

08 January : 0

09 January : 15

10 January : 0

11 January : 0

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

Just to make things more confusing Silso.com have recorded 4 sun spotless days so far:

07 January : 0

08 January : 0

09 January : 15

10 January : 0

11 January : 0

It’s dependent on the count one takes.  I say go for the Wolf Count....we can then match previous recorded cycles.

BFTP

[JeffC]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s dependent on the count one takes.  I say go for the Wolf Count....we can then match previous recorded cycles.

BFTP

Fair enough, what figures come out of that count then please.

Seems a bit implausible to go 0,0,15,0,0.??

 

 

[JeffC]

Adjusted solar flux 70.0

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 30.1 billion watts

solar flux 73

neutron count 9.4% high

kp index 2 quiet

[Katrine Basso]

www.sidc.be/silso.com
It has today's sunspot count as 0

But Solarham.com

Has the sunspot count as 14 and the Solar Flux at 74

Spaceweather.com is still showing yesterday's sunspot count.

 

 

 

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

www.sidc.be/silso.com
It has today's sunspot count as 0

But Solarham.com

Has the sunspot count as 14 and the Solar Flux at 74

Spaceweather.com is still showing yesterday's sunspot count.

 

 

 

I still say that's a hell of a jump up and down from zero to 14/15 and back to nowt! 

[SteveB]

2 days blank, 3 for 2020, 23%

Solar flux 73

Thermosphere: 3.03

[SteveB]

3 days blank, 4 for 2020, 29%

Solar flux 72

Thermosphere: 3.04

[Katrine Basso]

Silso Sunspot Index has 5 sun spotless days for January.  It usually reports less sunspots than Spaceweather, I wonder if they have changed the method on how they count sun spots.

[Minus 10]

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