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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

31 days blank, 268 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.19

Well we have equalled 2008, with 16 days still to go. Amazing that we ha done it style, with a 30+ day blank stretch too.

sorry to correct you steve, but we have actually 17 days to go.

we seem to be steam boating ahead with sunspotless count, maybe solar cycle 25 we could reach over 300m if not cycle 26 will definitely do it.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

31 days blank, 268 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.19

Well we have equalled 2008, with 16 days still to go. Amazing that we ha done it style, with a 30+ day blank stretch too.

We haven’t equalled 2008. The 2008 number is the SIDC count so you need to use the current SIDC count  if you want to compare. The number you are quoting is the Boulder count.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

As far as I'm concerned,  we have equalled 2008, that's the count the we have been using all year.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
56 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

sorry to correct you steve, but we have actually 17 days to go.

we seem to be steam boating ahead with sunspotless count, maybe solar cycle 25 we could reach over 300m if not cycle 26 will definitely do it.

Yep, 31 days in December, my bad!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, SteveB said:

As far as I'm concerned,  we have equalled 2008, that's the count the we have been using all year.

Yep Spaceweather use the Boulder too....so I agree with you we have equalled and will surpass it
 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
8 hours ago, SteveB said:

31 days blank, 268 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.19

Well we have equalled 2008, with 16 days still to go. Amazing that we ha done it style, with a 30+ day blank stretch too.

Adjusted flux 66.9...

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

32 days blank, 269 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.15

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

33 days blank, 270 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.17

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Worth keeping an eye on this table now:
 

SC25_periods.png

SIDC.OMA.BE

Regular solar observers have noticed that since mid-2016, the Sun has occasionally been devoid of sunspots. These spotless disks will gradually become a familiar feature as the solar cycle is heading for...

 

Currently the second longest streak in over 70 years.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Worth keeping an eye on this table now:
 

SC25_periods.png

SIDC.OMA.BE

Regular solar observers have noticed that since mid-2016, the Sun has occasionally been devoid of sunspots. These spotless disks will gradually become a familiar feature as the solar cycle is heading for...

 

Currently the second longest streak in over 70 years.

And we know that our runs have been broken by the fleeting sunspot with the lowest count of 11. You have to wonder if some of the runs noted in the table would have achieved the same number under today's observation methods?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
1 hour ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Still no record-breaking snowfalls and minimum temperatures, though.

Have you not seen the news? The worlds on fire mate!

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Still no record-breaking snowfalls and minimum temperatures, though.

It's usually not coldest at midnight but right after dawn, there is still a lot of retained heat from many many intense solar cycles

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
6 hours ago, jonboy said:

And we know that our runs have been broken by the fleeting sunspot with the lowest count of 11. You have to wonder if some of the runs noted in the table would have achieved the same number under today's observation methods?

Certainly yes. There’s a much more extensive observer network now, so more likely that those short-lived spots get, er...spotted. That’s why I’m always banging on about using the SSN as a better measure, because that is adjusted to account for those differences.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

34 days blank, 271 for 2019, 775

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.22

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Did we not hit 36 days earlier this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Did we not hit 36 days earlier this year.

Not by the SILSO count (which is the one used in the table above). Boulder might have done though.

But for a very short-lived spot on the 13th Nov, the current count would be 43 days which would have been the longest streak in over 100 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
8 hours ago, SteveB said:

34 days blank, 271 for 2019, 775

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.22

Adjusted flux 67.4

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Not sure if this would be the place to ask this, but given that this seems to be a notable solar minimum, is there any correlation between previous lengthy spotless periods and cold winters? 

I mean is there data to suggest that there is a connection either synchronous or delayed? I know we have LIA associated with Dalton Min etc, but wondering about a typical time lag if one exists?

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
4 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Not sure if this would be the place to ask this, but given that this seems to be a notable solar minimum, is there any correlation between previous lengthy spotless periods and cold winters? 

I mean is there data to suggest that there is a connection either synchronous or delayed? I know we have LIA associated with Dalton Min etc, but wondering about a typical time lag if one exists?

I was under the impression it was the winter following the minimum that is usually coldest (or has more chance of being). We saw this with the last solar cycle to an extent. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I see this winter as equivalent in the solar cycle to winter 2008/9 which was a cold one in the UK. 

Looking at things as they stand now, I will be surprised if this winter turns out anywhere near as good.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
10 minutes ago, karyo said:

I see this winter as equivalent in the solar cycle to winter 2008/9 which was a cold one in the UK. 

Looking at things as they stand now, I will be surprised if this winter turns out anywhere near as good.

was December 46 not similar to know and then look what happened. All notable winters don't start until late December /early Jan

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