Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 32.7 billion watts

neutron count 9.85 high

[SteveB]

23 days blank, 259 for 2019, 76%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.27

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 06/12/2019 at 05:16, SteveB said:

23 days blank, 259 for 2019, 76%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.27

Yet another blank day today that's now 24 still at 76%.

Little sign of any activity coming in.

If this is anything else but a lower than 2009, something must show up soon.

MIA  

[SteveB]

23 days blank,  360 for 2019, 76%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere:3.29

[SteveB]

24 days blank, 261 for 2019 76%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 3.29

Let's assume a spot does appear between now and the end of the year, they usually last around 5-10 days! Being there are 22 left for this year, we should easily beat 2008. Unless of course,  there is a sudden massive upturn in activity. 

My guess is something around 280 spotless days

Edited December 8, 2019 by SteveB

[jonboy]

On 01/11/2019 at 12:40, jonboy said:

not sure what you mean by this. As I said a little while ago I think something around the 270/275 mark is likely. We have 60 days left and if we remain at 75% then that would be 273. Given the last 6 months is higher than 75% we could be nearer 280.

I think 2020 could well be similar to 2019 but with a very quiet first half with an uptick later in the year

I don't think my thought back on November the 1st will be far wrong probably nearer 280 than not

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 32.6 billion watts

neutron count 10.9%

cosmic rays are intensifying!

could we reach or beat december 2009 record?

 

[SteveB]

25 days blank,  262 for 2019, 76%

Solar flux 72

Thermosphere: 3.26

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 32.2 billion watts

neutron count 10.6% very high

[SteveB]

26 days blank, 263 for 2019, 76%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.22

[JeffC]

Adjusted flux  68.3

[Katrine Basso]

AN OUTBURST OF SOLSTICE AURORAS: Auroras love equinoxes. Solstices? Not so much. A 75 year study shows that December is the worst month for geomagnetic activity. At this time of year auroras tend to subside. But they never vanish, as shown in this photo taken by Markus Varik of Tromsø, Norway, on Dec. 6th:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This year is in pole position to swamp 2008, I also believe we are in the equivalent of 2008 re the timing of the solar minimum.   Two things if I’m right......2020 will see a blank sun not seen since century before last 1800s and 300+ blank days could be up for grabs.

This winter will be fairly innocuous re UK cold as 08/09 was.

BFTP

 

[SteveB]

28 days blank, 265 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.17

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 31.1 billion watts

neutron count 9.1% high

[Minus 10]

Latest update from Tamitha Skov

[JeffC]

15 hours ago, SteveB said:

28 days blank, 265 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.17

Adjusted Flux 68.6

[SteveB]

29 days blank, 266 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.11

[JeffC]

23 minutes ago, SteveB said:

29 days blank, 266 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.11

Adjusted flux =69.0

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 31.2 billion watts

neutron count 8.8% high

 

[JeffC]

Adjusted flux 68.3

[SteveB]

30 days blank, 267 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 71

Thermosphere: 3.12

[Minus 10]

thermosphere 31.9 billion watts

neutron count 9.4% high

[SteveB]

31 days blank, 268 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.19

Well we have equalled 2008, with 16 days still to go. Amazing that we ha done it style, with a 30+ day blank stretch too.

[karyo]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

31 days blank, 268 for 2019, 77%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.19

Well we have equalled 2008, with 16 days still to go. Amazing that we ha done it style, with a 30+ day blank stretch too.

Indeed! Also impressive to have such a low solar flux in December.