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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

14 days blank, 183 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 4.14

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Not sure if this has been posted before - prediction of SC25 using a solar dynamo model https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0 

Their prediction range indicates cycle 25 will be similar or slightly stronger than the previous cycle (but article was written back in May 2018)

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

15 days blank, 184 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 4.14

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

16 days blank, 185 days for 2019 71%

Solar flux 66

Thermosphere: 4.20

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Ticking along nicely, unless there is a massive up-tick in spots, we should easily see 230-240 spotless day's for 2019!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
6 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Ticking along nicely, unless there is a massive up-tick in spots, we should easily see 230-240 spotless day's for 2019!

we have 105 days to 2020 I would expect the spotless days to be around the 275 mark

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Running at more than 90% spotless for Q3 so yes, a similar rate in Q3 would see us fighting 2008 and 2009. An extremely deep solar minima.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
48 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Running at more than 90% spotless for Q3 so yes, a similar rate in Q3 would see us fighting 2008 and 2009. An extremely deep solar minima.

Well lets just hope we get a cold winter in the next few years as a result!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
7 hours ago, jonboy said:

we have 105 days to 2020 I would expect the spotless days to be around the 275 mark

Yep, I was being conservative. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

17 days blank, 187 for 2019 71%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere: 4.26

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

NORTHERN LIGHTS AND A LUNAR FOGBOW: The end of summer is a good time to be in Aslaska. Specifically, on the foggy banks of the Coleville River Delta. Last night, photographer James Helmericks was there, and this is what he saw:

fogbow_stripNorthern Lights and a Lunar Fog bow.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

18 days blank, 187 for 2019 71%

Solar flux 67

Thermosphere:4.22

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

EQUINOX AURORAS: Auroras love equinoxes. At this time of year even a gentle gust of solar wind can spark bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Petra Schneider sends this example of the phenomenon from Hamarøy, Norway:

equinox_strip Equinox Aurora.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

http://www.solarham.net/

Solar Terrestrial Data

22 September 2019 1016 GMT

Sun spot number: 0

Solar flux index: 68

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

19 days blank, 187 for 2019 71%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 4.21

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

"It unbelievable show last night in the Lofoten islands," says Cooper.

No geomagnetic storm was in progress on Sept. 21st when Cooper took the picture. Instead, a minor solar wind stream was brushing against Earth's magnetic field--barely elevating the background density and speed of gaseous material flowing around our planet.

equinox_strip Lofoten islands.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 20 days
2019 total: 189 days (71%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.21x1010 W Cold

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Have a quick question, how would the solar minimum of cycle 24 compare against minimums in Dalton or Mauder. Is there any data where I can compare the years without sunspots of 2008 and 2009 with Dalton Miminum years 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Solar Terrestrial Data

24 September 2019 0725 GMT

Sun spot number: 0

Solar flux index: 68

http://www.solarham.net/

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
19 hours ago, jules216 said:

Have a quick question, how would the solar minimum of cycle 24 compare against minimums in Dalton or Mauder. Is there any data where I can compare the years without sunspots of 2008 and 2009 with Dalton Miminum years 

The SILSO series goes back hundreds of years, but not all the way to the Maunder min:

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/datafiles

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

21 days blank,  192 for 2019 72%

Solar flux 66

Thermosphere: 4.18

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

AURORAS--NO GEOMAGNETIC STORM REQUIRED: Last night outside Fairbanks, Alaska, curtains of green descended from the sky. "It started just after sunset on Sept. 23rd," reports  Sacha Layos, who photographed the display:

alaska_strip auroas - no geomagnetic storm.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
On 23/09/2019 at 13:14, jules216 said:

Have a quick question, how would the solar minimum of cycle 24 compare against minimums in Dalton or Mauder. Is there any data where I can compare the years without sunspots of 2008 and 2009 with Dalton Miminum years 

Found this., don't know how accurate it is

 

400-years-of-sunspot-observations.jpg

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