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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes, I wonder if we are entering the next solar cycle now and minimum has passed?

Quite possibly. That bodes well for winter as it's the couple of winters just after solar min which hold the promise, so I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I wonder if we are entering the next solar cycle now and minimum has passed?

Feels a bit rapid maybe but looking at those figures they aren't large jumps.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
17 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I wonder if we are entering the next solar cycle now and minimum has passed?

We had people saying this earlier in the year when activity picked up. Until solar flux is sustained over a quarter I would ignore any rash conclusions.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We had people saying this earlier in the year when activity picked up. Until solar flux is sustained over a quarter I would ignore any rash conclusions.

Indeed - adjusted flux down to 68.5 again ….

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

6 days blank, 175 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 74

Thermosphere: 4.03

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

I have been able to get on to the https://www.spaceweather.com/ website and it still says that the solar flux index is at 74, while the http://www.solarham.net/ website says that the solar flux index is 68.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
53 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

I have been able to get on to the https://www.spaceweather.com/ website and it still says that the solar flux index is at 74, while the http://www.solarham.net/ website says that the solar flux index is 68.

Space weather could be running behind, solarham shows 74 from the other day

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Thank you for the information

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Posted
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What's happen to SpaceWeather site? 

I can't get on the site and keep getting nginx?

BIG NEWS--WE'RE UPGRADING OUR SERVER: Spaceweather.com is about to get a brand new secure high-performance server. The transition is happening right now. During the move you may experience brief outages or notice things temporarily out of order. We apologize for any inconvenience. The move will allow us to modernize Spaceweather.com, providing better service and new forms of realtime information. Thanks for your patience! Note: You're reading this on the new server!

 

^^^^^ Copy & Paste taken from https://www.spaceweather.com/  just now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
10 hours ago, Despicable Weather said:

BIG NEWS--WE'RE UPGRADING OUR SERVER: Spaceweather.com is about to get a brand new secure high-performance server. The transition is happening right now. During the move you may experience brief outages or notice things temporarily out of order. We apologize for any inconvenience. The move will allow us to modernize Spaceweather.com, providing better service and new forms of realtime information. Thanks for your patience! Note: You're reading this on the new server!

 

^^^^^ Copy & Paste taken from https://www.spaceweather.com/  just now. 

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

7 days blank, 176 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 3.96

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Nice to see us reaching 70% spotless days! 

Will we manage to maintain this figure or even improve a bit? It is possible that activity will start slowly increasing as we approach the end of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

8 days blank, 177 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere: 4.07

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

9 days blank, 178 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 4.02

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
On 08/09/2019 at 17:22, Don said:

Yes, I wonder if we are entering the next solar cycle now and minimum has passed?

Just a hunch but I reckon we've some way to go with this minimum yet.  Bearing in mind the first SC24 spots were recorded in Jan 2008 ( https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/10jan_solarcycle24) & looking at a graph on the site that @Yarmy posted recently at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html#RSC24 it seems that SC24 didn't really pick up until 2+ years later into 2010.  Given SC25 is predicted to be similar to SC24, if the minimum follows a similar curve then it would be nearer 2021 before we really see significant activity.  This would tie in with NOAA's forecast issued earlier in the summer: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-preliminary-forecast  

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10 days blank, 179 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 4.02

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

11 days blank, 180 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 68

Thermosphere: 4.02

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

http://www.sidc.be/silso/

Sun spot activity 15 September : 0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Wonder what the next update regarding solar cycle 25 forecasts will be. I remember at the start of the year there were quite a few forecasts predicting activity will have started climbing in summer. That obviously hasn't happened and we have some lengthy spotless runs in the last few months. The longer this goes on you would think it becomes more likely cycle 25 will be similar to 24 at best and possibly even weaker.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

12 days blank, 181 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 4.11

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
7 hours ago, Snowy L said:

Wonder what the next update regarding solar cycle 25 forecasts will be. I remember at the start of the year there were quite a few forecasts predicting activity will have started climbing in summer. That obviously hasn't happened and we have some lengthy spotless runs in the last few months. The longer this goes on you would think it becomes more likely cycle 25 will be similar to 24 at best and possibly even weaker.

We can but hope!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

13 days blank, 182 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 69

Thermosphere: 4.11

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

IT MUST BE SEPTEMBER: Studies show that September is one of the very best months for auroras. At this time of year around the Arctic Circle, the lights often appear for no apparent reason. That's exactly what happened last night. With no geomagnetic storm to provoke a display, one appeared anyway:

auroras_strip It must be September.jpg

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