Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Polar Maritime]

Spaceweather going for Kp7

[Polar Maritime]

[Katrine Basso]

SURPRISE STORM SPARKS AURORAS IN THE USA: A surprise geomagnetic storm erupted during the early hours of May 14th when a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind poured through the gap, igniting auroras over northern-tier US states. Paul Nelson photographed the display from the shore of Lake Superior near Marquette, Michigan:

[Katrine Basso]

Auroras over Clyde, Ohio, on May 14, 2019

Edited May 15, 2019 by Katrine Basso
Deleting extra spaces

[karyo]

This is a peculiar solar minimum. For the last couple of months activity has been increasing rather than the other way around. 

The total of spotless days is currently at 54% which is a lot lower than last year's and a far cry from the 2008 levels.

[Weather-history]

Once again it was a flop as regards to the aurora prospects, seems to be often the case when forecasters up the chance of good auroral displays outside the usual areas.

[Gray-Wolf]

23 hours ago, karyo said:

This is a peculiar solar minimum. For the last couple of months activity has been increasing rather than the other way around. 

The total of spotless days is currently at 54% which is a lot lower than last year's and a far cry from the 2008 levels.

I've also been wondering how we can see the kind of spotless levels some keep insisting are just around the corner?

I'm still reserving my opinion until Sept but I can see ,quite plainly, the 'direction of travel' I believe we're witnessing?

[Katrine Basso]

Does anyone know when will the sun return to its spotless phase?

[John Badrick]

On 18/05/2019 at 10:25, Gray-Wolf said:

I've also been wondering how we can see the kind of spotless levels some keep insisting are just around the corner?

I'm still reserving my opinion until Sept but I can see ,quite plainly, the 'direction of travel' I believe we're witnessing?

Yeah, we're heading into deep solar minimum starting end of the year -beginning of 2020 I don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, John Badrick said:

Yeah, we're heading into deep solar minimum starting end of the year -beginning of 2020 I don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp?

Because it's quite possible that we're not...We won't know until it happens...

[Gray-Wolf]

We're nearly half way through the year so we need be seeing signs of this deep min soon or we will end up with less 'spotless days' than last year.

If we drew that on a graph the 'trough' would be behind us?

By Sept, as I keep saying, I'll decide whether or not I see us descending into a further 'low' or whether we are on the climb out of a very shallow 'minimum'?

Due to my concerns about 'Space Hardware' I'm far happier in solar min ( though I know we get some big events even with the sun quiet?) than I am with a raging solar Max.

But I must also be a 'realist' and follow what the data appears to be showing and not spin off into some imaginary, invested, future?

Anyhoo's a spotless day and the numbers at 68 for flux with our tally for spotless days running at 54%, a long way behind the 73% of 2008 or the 71% of 2009?

As I see it we need another 145 days 'spotless' to even match last years 61% blank and another 216 days of the year left?

As I say if by Sept we are still sat lower than 60% spotless I will have a clearer idea in my mind (esp if flux is also pushing 70 or higher?).

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun spot activity: 20th May 2019

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 1 day
2019 total: 75 days (54%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux:68 sfu

Thermosphere Climate Index

Solar wind
speed: 400.1 km/sec
density: 5.2 protons/cm3

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.43x1010 W Cold

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun spot activity: 20th May 2019

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 2 day
2019 total: 76 days (54%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 sfu

[Katrine Basso]

Daily Sun spot activity: 22nd May 2019

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 3 day
2019 total: 77 days (54%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu 

Edited May 22, 2019 by Katrine Basso
Edit date

[JeffC]

at least the 10.7cm flux has dropped off...

[Tattooed Fox]

I am wondering if someone can shed some light on this 'nature'  scenario I have noticed?  ~ Normally I have about a dozen swifts flying and making their usual lovely summer noises around my back garden.  This year they were late '8th May' and there was 2 of them, then 5 and now this week back to 2.  What has happened.  I know it is food based but surely with this drastic decline it has to be more than that?  Any ideas please?

[SteveB]

4 day's blank, 78 for 2019 55%

Solar flux 67

[SteveB]

5 Days blank 79 for 2019 55%

Solar flux 67

[JeffC]

And flux drops a tad more 

[SteveB]

6 days blank, 80 for 2019, 55%

Solar flux 67

[SteveB]

7  days blank, 81 for 2019 55%

Solar flux 66

[Katrine Basso]

It's great news to see that the solar flux has lowered to 66 and I hope that it will go down to 65.

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

It's great news to see that the solar flux has lowered to 66 and I hope that it will go down to 65.

I seem to remember 65 is the lowest value possible?

[Katrine Basso]

Thank you Jeff for the information.  I wonder what affect, if any will on this year's summer.

[SteveB]

8 days blank, 82 for 2019 56%

S0lar flux 68