Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep you are correct.

GW thinks it is a report.

It has the title of a preliminary forecast.

They have no idea whether or not the minimum of the current cycle is within 12 months so how accurate can we expect it to be  over the next 11 years?

The truth is that we still do not know enough about the suns 'weather' to start issuing more precise information than preliminary forecasts. 

They actually state that they will have a better idea when the solar min has definitely occurred.  I have seen reports that it completed in Nov of last year, but NASA seem to be suggesting/saying that they expect it between June and summer of next year.

We will see.

MIA

That's all true, MIA; and it makes one wonder: just what exactly is all the blether, about an impending LIA, based on: Guesswork? Wishful thinking? Pie in the sky?

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[jonboy]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

That's all true, MIA; and it makes one wonder: just what exactly is all the blether, about an impending LIA, based on: Guesswork? Wishful thinking? Pie in the sky?

There is no impending LIA cooling yes LIA No

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, jonboy said:

There is no impending LIA cooling yes LIA No

Does that mean that the last LIA wasn't caused by the Maunder minimum? Anywho, assuming you are correct, in that deep Solar minima don't cause LIAs, it'll take a considerable (and measurable) cooling-event for AGW to be negated, will it not...?

[karyo]

As an observer, it looks to me that the last couple of months have seen an increase in sunspot activity. I was expecting for the opposite to happen so i don't get the feeling that this minimum has much more to give. I was hoping for longer spotless periods and lower solar flux like we had in 2008. 

I remember the buzz back in 2008 with expectations of some degree of global cooling or at least a stall of global warming thanks to the deep minimum and indeed it was then that the Little Ice Age was mentioned. Ok we did get a couple of cold winters following the last minimum but the world continued to warm and if cycle 25 is similar to this one, we can expect the warming to continue uninterrupted. 

Today we have a new active sunspot emerging and the solar flux has risen to 77. 

[Yarmy]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

As an observer, it looks to me that the last couple of months have seen an increase in sunspot activity. I was expecting for the opposite to happen so i don't get the feeling that this minimum has much more to give. I was hoping for longer spotless periods and lower solar flux like we had in 2008. 

I remember the buzz back in 2008 with expectations of some degree of global cooling or at least a stall of global warming thanks to the deep minimum and indeed it was then that the Little Ice Age was mentioned. Ok we did get a couple of cold winters following the last minimum but the world continued to warm and if cycle 25 is similar to this one, we can expect the warming to continue uninterrupted. 

Today we have a new active sunspot emerging and the solar flux has risen to 77. 

 

I've no idea how long this minimum will last, or indeed what effect it will have on the climate (if any), but it's worth noting that both the current active regions in the NH are low latitude and have SC24 polarity, so they probably belong to SC24 rather than SC25.

[karyo]

52 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

I've no idea how long this minimum will last, or indeed what effect it will have on the climate (if any), but it's worth noting that both the current active regions in the NH are low latitude and have SC24 polarity, so they probably belong to SC24 rather than SC25.

Yes, that's the only positive i can see right now. It is a pity though that even at this late stage SC24 keeps producing sunspots rather than being quiet.

[Weather-history]

Seen the sunspot through my solar binoculars.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 6 severe winters of the 20th century (sub 2C for CET)

1916-17 (just before maximum)

1928-29 (just after maximum)

1939-40

1946-47 (just before maximum)

1962-63

1978-79 (approaching maximum)

4 of them occurred within a year with either side of solar maximum.

None of the other two occurred within a year of solar minimum.

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

[jonboy]

On 07/04/2019 at 16:37, Ed Stone said:

Does that mean that the last LIA wasn't caused by the Maunder minimum? Anywho, assuming you are correct, in that deep Solar minima don't cause LIAs, it'll take a considerable (and measurable) cooling-event for AGW to be negated, will it not...?

We are not in Maunder Minimum territory and would suggest this minimum will be more Sporer like so no lia.

A deep minimum will cause cooling but then you have to consider if low activity can cause cooling why doesn’t high activity cause warming?

[Katrine Basso]

WATCHING AURORAS IN YOUR UNDERWEAR: Early this morning, hours before sunrise in Alaska, a minor stream of solar wind buffeted Earth's magnetic field. "I had just gotten up to use the bathroom when I happened to look out the window. The auroras were active!" reports Bernard Marschner of Fairbanks. "Wearing only my BVDs, I threw on a coat and slipped on some shoes and ran outside to take some photos."

[Katrine Basso]

UNDER THE AURORAL OVAL: There are certain places in the world, special places, where auroras appear even without geomagnetic storms. Tromsø, Norway, is one of them. Ole Salomonsen was there last night when the sky filled with swirls of green--no geomagnetic storm required.

[John Badrick]

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

Didn't think we hit minimum yet. 

“As you can see – we haven’t quite reached the lowest levels of the last cycle – where we experienced several consecutive months with no sunspots. However, the panel expects that we should reach those levels [between now and the end of 2020].”

Edited April 13, 2019 by John Badrick

[jonboy]

On 13/04/2019 at 06:49, John Badrick said:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

Didn't think we hit minimum yet. 

“As you can see – we haven’t quite reached the lowest levels of the last cycle – where we experienced several consecutive months with no sunspots. However, the panel expects that we should reach those levels [between now and the end of 2020].”

Also it reports that the cycle 25 is likely to be as low as cycle 24

[Katrine Basso]

AURORA SEASON IS NOT OVER YET: Yesterday, April 15th, a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere brushed Earth's magnetic field. It was a minor interaction--just enough to spark auroras over Alaska. "Aurora season isn't over yet," says Ayumi Bakken of Fairbanks, who photographed the display:

Edited April 16, 2019 by Katrine Basso
wrong information

[Katrine Basso]

SUNSPOT SUNRISE: Sunspot AR2738 is is three times wider than Earth and covers more than a billion square kilometers of the sun's surface. It's so big, people are seeing it in the sunrise. "I had a pleasant surprise this morning," reports Trevor Perry of Garrucha, Spain. "The giant sunspot was visible as the sun came up over the sea."

[Snowy L]

Looks like those forecasts of cycle 25 being stronger are going to be true. It's kicked off early which is what they were showing.

[Weather-history]

45 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Looks like those forecasts of cycle 25 being stronger are going to be true. It's kicked off early which is what they were showing.

Who says?

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

Also recent sunspots are from the dying cycle 24 not from the upcoming cycle 25 

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Weather-history

[Gray-Wolf]

Why do folk appear so invested in both a long solar min and a low number for cycle 25?

Surely we will see what we will see?

If by Aug we have not seen a growing flux and new cycle spots becoming more common I'll rethink my acceptance of the earlier projections but until then we are sat at solar min and about to see cycle 25 ramp up over the next year.

[John Badrick]

On 20/04/2019 at 09:18, Snowy L said:

Looks like those forecasts of cycle 25 being stronger are going to be true. It's kicked off early which is what they were showing.

What??? not at min yet cycle 25 not started these sun spots are from 24!!!!

[karyo]

At long last we recorded a spotless day. However, the total of spotless days so far for 2019 is 56% which is a lot lower than it was a month ago and also lower than last year. We will need to see really long spotless periods from now on if this year is going to come close to the 2008/9 levels.

[Katrine Basso]

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 4.37x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 solar flux unit

 

[SteveB]

2 day's blank, 64 for 2019 57%

Solar flux 69

[SteveB]

3 day's blank, 65 for 2019, 57%

Solar flux 69

[summer blizzard]

Chances are that we will be above 60% soon enough so i am not concerned.

I do question if we will match the low of 2008 however i am still relatively confident that we will beat last year and am still maybe 60/40 of the belief that this is another triple top 20 minima so dont expect 2020 to do much either.

[SteveB]

4 day's blank, 66 for 2019 575

Solar flux 69