Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Midlands Ice Age]

13 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Sorry, JB, but I have to disagree with you, on several points

Activity at solar max has an effect on the Earth's atmosphere and therefore a direct one on the weather in the area of the UK five-six years later? Wow.

I don't think any serious solar physicist has ever claimed that the variation in emissions/activity during the solar cycle (x-rays, uv radiation, sunspots, solar flares, etc.) doesn't have any effect on the climate, or, to be more accurate global weather patterns over a 22-year cycle, it's merely that the effects of AGW are swamping the 0.2 °C change that can be attributed to the sunspot cycle.

The number of cosmic rays that get to Earth always increases during solar minumum. That's been observed ever since we've known about cosmic rays.

All of the major meteorological bodies' climate models take into account the sunspot cycle and other such variables.

 

 

  

 

CR..

Again not disagreeing with too much of what you say until the last sentence.

The models have not come to grip with much of this area.

It is true that they do take into account the changes in solar irradiance

But no one was aware until very recently (last 5 years?) of the extreme swings in the UV   and the resultant high energy particles that are striking the earths atmosphere. Balloon data has showed this to vary by as much as 25% during this time.

How does this affect weather/climate?

Well there are lots of theories around at the moment, which are the subject of much research.

These include the affects on the Hadley Cells, the affect on the much thinner troposphere at the poles, the effect upon the AMO and NAD (which is observed but not understood), and lastly affects upon the oceans and the currents.

None of these are included in the models, but are showing that they could well be related to the solar cycles.  None of them are clearly short term effects that will enable immediate diagnosis. So Ed will have to wait for his proof. 

The models have attempted to self-correct by means of past standardisation.

Lets see what happens when we have ended this solar minimum.

MIA 

Edited March 8, 2019 by BornFromTheVoid
Warned about climate contrarian tropes. If you're going to make definiteive statements about climate models (30 paramaters, etc) , provide some evidence

[soft lad]

On 07/03/2019 at 17:59, Ed Stone said:

But at least there's a climatic correlation between CO2-concentration and global temperatures...When it comes to solar cycles, there isn't. And a non-existent correlation isn't a very good place to start?

Try replacing NOAA's estimated global temperatures with error bars..see how much of a correlation there is then...

[Gray-Wolf]

I take it we had a cycle 24 spot over the weekend?

I see talk of cycle 25 activity increasing but not powerful enough to be noted as 'spots'. This has the folk who know about such again repeating that they see min. occurring either Q4 2018 or Q1 in 2019

[Yarmy]

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I take it we had a cycle 24 spot over the weekend?

I see talk of cycle 25 activity increasing but not powerful enough to be noted as 'spots'. This has the folk who know about such again repeating that they see min. occurring either Q4 2018 or Q1 in 2019

The visible spot is from SC24. However, there is a spotless active region in the S.Hem at roughly the same longitude (this happens quite a lot) and that has reversed polarity so it may belong to SC25 (although the latitude is a little low).

 

As ever, time will tell.

[jonboy]

Time will tell but I would anticipate this year being around 300/310 days spotless and 2020 being around the 290/300 mark before we see activity pick up in 2021. with max of cycle 25 being in 2025 with a similar or perhaps slightly lower than cycle 24. It will not be a grand minimum.

[Katrine Basso]

The last named solar minimum was the Dalton minimum of 1790 to 1820.

[Gray-Wolf]

I find this a bit of a worry to discover?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271

I worry it might really mess with our sats/power grid should we find it returning?

[jonboy]

52 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I find this a bit of a worry to discover?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271

I worry it might really mess with our sats/power grid should we find it returning?

How does this sit with the Carrington event of 1859? We know that if such an event occurred today it would have a significant impact on satellite's, power grids etc. Do they occur at or towards minimum and would there impact be greater dependant on the depth of minimum. Not that we could do much to protect ourselves given the speed and unpredictability of such events. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Was the Carrington event the one that messed with telegraph wires/stations?

I only know what I read in the BBC article so that there was a similar event to the one in 660BC in the 700's AD?

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I find this a bit of a worry to discover?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47536271

I worry it might really mess with our sats/power grid should we find it returning?

It's a definite concern. We had a near miss in 2012 with an event of a similar magnitude to 1859.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012

We would have 3 days or so to prepare for the CME, but what could be done in that time?

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

It's a definite concern. We had a near miss in 2012 with an event of a similar magnitude to 1859.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012

We would have 3 days or so to prepare for the CME, but what could be done in that time?

Thanks for the info Yarmy!

Well we know we are well short of replacement parts for transformers should we see massive 'burnouts' due to induced currents so we'dd have to go dark for a period ( isolate vulnerable bits of kit?) rather than face many months without power?

Our sats will give us heads up similar to the final warnings from a 'cane approaching so we would just need to react. As for sats? well someone else can tell me about the mess it would make up there and how we deal with it?

[SteveB]

1 Day blank, 49 for 2019, 68%

Solar flux 71

[SteveB]

2 day's blank, 50 for 2019 68%

Solar flux 70 

[SteveB]

3 day's blank, 51 for 2019 (level with 2010) 68%

Solar flux 70

[Katrine Basso]

THE SOURCE OF AURORA BOREALIS: For thousands of years, Arctic sky watchers have marveled the Northern Lights and wondered, where do they come from? "After two decades of photographing auroras in the Lapland of Sweden, I may have finally found the answer," says Peter Rosén of Kiruna, Sweden. "They appear to be coming from my sauna!" Here is the evidence from March 14th. "Old folklore says it is due to the mirroring effect of schools of herring in the ocean (Norway), an Arctic fox moving its tail (Finland), spirits who play football with the skull of a walrus (Inuits) or the spirits of the dead people (the Sami in Sweden)," says Peter Rosén:

Edited March 16, 2019 by Katrine Basso
Deleting extra spaces

[SteveB]

4 day's blank, 52 for 2019 68%

Solar flux 70

[Katrine Basso]

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ARE UNDERWAY: A crack has opened in Earth's magnetic field--not a big one, but big enough to cause a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Rayann Elzein witnessed the resulting auroras over Utsjoki, Finland, on March 16th:

[SteveB]

5 day's blank, 53 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 69

[karyo]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

5 day's blank, 53 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 69

First time in months, i see the solar flux drop below 70.

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

First time in months, i see the solar flux drop below 70.

I think someone posted further back in this thread about flux dropping once we move into Spring & Summer!

[karyo]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

I think someone posted further back in this thread about flux dropping once we move into Spring & Summer!

Yes, expected but nice to see.

 

[Katrine Basso]

Markus Varik witnessed the resulting auroras over Tromsø, Norway.

"It sure felt like the sky was falling on the ground," says Varik. "Just look at the town below the lights--like a mote of dust in space!"

This storm was not predicted, yet it comes as no surprise. The vernal equinox is only a few days away, and at this time of year cracks often form in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind can pour through the gaps to fuel bright displays of Arctic lights.

[Katrine Basso]

SPRING GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: Cracks in Earth's magnetic field? It only sounds like science fiction. In fact, a magnetic crack opened for more than 5 hours on March 16-17. The resulting G1-class geomagnetic storm sparked stunning auroras around the Arctic Circle. "The display I witnessed knocked me off my feet!" says photographer of Göran Strand of Björkliden Sweden:

[cowdog]

The Aurora's last night got within spitting distance of the UK. Peak of their southerly push is meant to be Saturday night and they might even get in to England.

For the projected track / current observation of the Aurora -

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

NOAA is predicting a significant amount of the US states will see it on Saturday its going to be that far South, if their predictions are correct.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-moderate-watch-effect-23-march-2019-utc-day

Edited March 22, 2019 by cowdog

[karyo]

Two sunspots and the solar flux has jumped to 80!