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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

25 day's blank, 39 for 2019 70%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

February 25th:

Thermosphere climate index: 39.5 billion watts.

Kp index=1=quiet.

G1 class flare expected 27th February.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

26 day's blank, 40 day's for 2019 70%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Jan Janssens has updated his personal solar tracking site with the latest data:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html

SC2425minimum.png

Janssens is the solar physicist at STCE who maintains the SILSO spotless days page:

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/spotless

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
21 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Jan Janssens has updated his personal solar tracking site with the latest data:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html

SC2425minimum.png

Janssens is the solar physicist at STCE who maintains the SILSO spotless days page:

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/spotless

 

 

Almost confirmed then. If we do not see a reversal in the next six months then it is likely we are tracking the last solar cycle (at a potentially deeper level as things stand) as opposed to seeing a quick flip. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 27 days
2019 total: 41 days (71%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

28 day's blank, 43 for 2019 73%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Total sunspotless days to date is 42 not 43, 14 sunspotless days in January, 28 in February, do the maths.

Amazing, a whole month without a sunspot, can we beat last years 32 day stretch?

G1 solar flares today, auroras possible, wind speed on sun to reach 1 million mph.

27th Feb: Thermosphere climate index: 37.8 billion watts, a marked drop from previously.

Kp index for 24hrs=5=storm.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
2 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

Total sunspotless days to date is 42 not 43, 14 sunspotless days in January, 28 in February, do the maths.

Amazing, a whole month without a sunspot, can we beat last years 32 day stretch?

G1 solar flares today, auroras possible, wind speed on sun to reach 1 million mph.

27th Feb: Thermosphere climate index: 37.8 billion watts, a marked drop from previously.

Kp index for 24hrs=5=storm.

I think Spaceweather has an off-by-one error, as it reported 1 spotless day for 2019 early on Jan 1st before the day had barely started.

The International Sunspot Number is the "official" count and that had a (very small and short-lived) sunspot on the 13th Feb. The NOAA Boulder count has about 20-30 more spotless days overall since SC24 max.

The transition from SC22 to SC23 had a 42 day stretch from Sep to Oct 1996 and that was during a short minimum between 2 active cycles.

But anyway, there's not much point in getting hung up on spotless streaks or counts: it's better to follow the smoothed SSN. The SSN is homogenised so that we can reasonably compare cycles today - when there are many observers - with periods in the past when there were far fewer. The spotless count isn't homogenised so direct comparisons make less sense. 

SC2425minimum.png?v=1

The green line is a 12-month centred smoothed mean, which means that the last value plotted is for 6 months before the end of January (when the above chart was updated last). The SSN mean for February will be effectively zero, so the green line will continue to drop. How far though and for how long?

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

29 day's blank, 44 for 2019 73%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

February 28th:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.2 billion watts.

Kp index=5=storm.

G1 minor storm, 24-48hrs

Arctic auroras possible..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
On 28/02/2019 at 08:05, karyo said:

A Month without sun spots and we got record breaking heat! 

 

Indeed.  We will just have to see what the next couple of years bring.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast Time will tell....

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
1 hour ago, drgl said:

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast Time will tell....

I've often thought over the last few yrs that the winters of the early 2020s could be very interesting if there is a link . We will just have to see what happens. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS, TODAY: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are underway on Mar. 1st as a fast-moving stream of solar wind buffets Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a wide hole in the sun's atmosphere--so wide that Earth could remain inside the stream for another 24 to 48 hours. First contact with the stream on Feb. 28th caused an explosion of light over Rovaniemi, Finland:

Jani-Ylinampa_strip ~Geomagnetic storms auroras ~.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

30 day's blank, 45 for 2019 74%

Solar flux 70 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 01/03/2019 at 11:57, drgl said:

If past cycles mean anything I would hope the next 2-3 winters see something cooler. If they end up like this year then it looks like any link to low sun spot activity and colder winters is toast Time will tell....

The link to top 20 spotless winters is not in doubt, but probablity is not a guarantee. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Agreed S.B.!

I have had to take on board the findings of the study that 'flipped' what the MetO told us over last solar min ( after 09/10 winter?) so have to accept that low solar and 'cold' are not a nailed on outcome?

If the energy levels in our climate system have increased these past few cycles then the conditions that 'used' to lead to the apparent relationship in 'low solar/cold winters' may no longer exist?

If it means the High pressure dominance over low solar now places the highs so as to feed us warmth all winter then low solar could be morphed in 'Bartlett central' when it comes around?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
16 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Agreed S.B.!

I have had to take on board the findings of the study that 'flipped' what the MetO told us over last solar min ( after 09/10 winter?) so have to accept that low solar and 'cold' are not a nailed on outcome?

 

 

What study is this and what did the MetOffice say during the last solar minimum?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
On 28/02/2019 at 08:05, karyo said:

A Month without sun spots and we got record breaking heat! 

 

Hottest summer on record, 1976, occurred around solar minimum.

So did the summer of 1933 which was a hot one. 

1834, where we were just coming out of a solar minimum was a very warm year whilst the maximum of that same cycle was around when the UK was having the coldest spring on record. 

Winters 1946-47 and 1978-79 occurred just before solar maximum 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

31 day's blank, 46 for 2019 74%

Solar flux 69 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

ZODIACAL LIGHTS: Tonight, when the sun does down and the glow of sunset fades away, another glow will take its place--the Zodiacal Lights.  They stretch upward from the western horizon forming a pale luminous triangle visible from places with exceptionally dark skies. Ruslan Merzlyakov photographed them on Feb. 23rd from Hjørring, Denmark:

 

zodiacallight_strip Zodiac Lights Aurora.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

32 day's blank, 47 for 2019 75%

Solar flux 70

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