Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[SteveB]

14 day's blank, 28 for 2019 62%

Solar flux 70

[SteveB]

16 day's blank, 30 for 2019, 64%

Solar flux 71

[karyo]

The solar flux looks very stubborn so far this year. I haven't seen it drop below 70. A few months ago it was lower.

[Don]

32 minutes ago, karyo said:

The solar flux looks very stubborn so far this year. I haven't seen it drop below 70. A few months ago it was lower.

Even the flipping sun is against us! . We may have passed solar minimum now?

[karyo]

56 minutes ago, Don said:

Even the flipping sun is against us! . We may have passed solar minimum now?

It is strange. Either way I have low expectations from the solar minimum for our weather. It is becoming obvious that western Europe is warming faster than other parts of the world.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is strange. Either way I have low expectations from the solar minimum for our weather. It is becoming obvious that western Europe is warming faster than other parts of the world.

More Greek holidays in winter, if you don’t want to go to Canada for the cold!  Let’s hope solar minimum can at least assist us in getting an ‘average’ Winter!

Edited February 16, 2019 by Don

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, karyo said:

The solar flux looks very stubborn so far this year. I haven't seen it drop below 70. A few months ago it was lower.

That's because you need to look at the adjusted flux, not the observed flux. The flux varies with the Earth's distance from the Sun. The Earth is closest to the Sun in January so that's when the observed flux will be highest.

[karyo]

15 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

That's because you need to look at the adjusted flux, not the observed flux. The flux varies with the Earth's distance from the Sun. The Earth is closest to the Sun in January so that's when the observed flux will be highest.

Thanks for the explanation. So we should see it drop soon.

[SteveB]

17 day's blank, 31 for 2019 65%

Solar  flux 71

[Minus 10]

February 17th:

Thermosphere climate index: 39.6 billion watts.

Kp index=2=quiet.

[SteveB]

18 day's blank, 32 for 2019 65%

Solar flux 70

[SteveB]

19 day's blank, 33 for 2019 (more blank day's than 2016) 66%

Solar flux 70

[SteveB]

20 day's blank, 34 for 2019 67%

Solar flux 70

[Gray-Wolf]

On 16/02/2019 at 09:38, karyo said:

The solar flux looks very stubborn so far this year. I haven't seen it drop below 70. A few months ago it was lower.

With Cycle 25 spots now becoming more frequent it just might be we are close to , or even passed, min and we will see the flux start to rise further later on this year with a corresponding increase in Cycle 25 spots?

It would leave me scratching my head if it did turn out that min has now been and gone after what we saw last low solar?

[karyo]

22 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With Cycle 25 spots now becoming more frequent it just might be we are close to , or even passed, min and we will see the flux start to rise further later on this year with a corresponding increase in Cycle 25 spots?

It would leave me scratching my head if it did turn out that min has now been and gone after what we saw last low solar?

We will know in a few months where this cycle is going.

By the way, no update so far today.

[sundog]

Been updated now 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 21 days
2019 total: 35 days (67%)

Solar flux 70

[Minus 10]

21st February:

Thermosphere climate index: 38.8 billion watts.

Kp index=4=unsettled.

[SteveB]

22 day's blank, 36 for 2019 68%

Solar flux 71

[SteveB]

23 day's blank, 37 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 71

[summer blizzard]

On 20/02/2019 at 15:57, Gray-Wolf said:

With Cycle 25 spots now becoming more frequent it just might be we are close to , or even passed, min and we will see the flux start to rise further later on this year with a corresponding increase in Cycle 25 spots?

It would leave me scratching my head if it did turn out that min has now been and gone after what we saw last low solar?

2008 only had a 73% spotless rate (09 was 71%) so we are actually tracking on par at that level right now. Remember that even 200 spotless days puts you in the top 15 of all spotless years since 1850 (some cycles don't even get one year in there, let alone two or three).

Cosmic rays and solar wind is also still increasing, consistent with deep solar minimum. 

[Katrine Basso]

The http://spaceweather.com/ website has not updated this morning.  I have got my data from the http://www.solarham.net/ website:

Sunspot number: 0

Updated 24 Feb 2019 09:26 GMT

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 38 days (69%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 71 sfu

Spoiler

 

 

[summer blizzard]

What were the longest stretches of the last cycle.

Edited February 24, 2019 by summer blizzard

[Yarmy]

20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

What were the longest stretches of the last cycle.

32 days and there were 7 periods of 20 or more days. The current stretch is unbroken using the Boulder count, but not when using the International Sunspot Number which had a spot on the 13th Feb.

[jonboy]

On ‎20‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 15:57, Gray-Wolf said:

With Cycle 25 spots now becoming more frequent it just might be we are close to , or even passed, min and we will see the flux start to rise further later on this year with a corresponding increase in Cycle 25 spots?

It would leave me scratching my head if it did turn out that min has now been and gone after what we saw last low solar?

on what basis do you make your comments?

[SteveB]

24 day's blank, 38 for 2019 69%

Solar flux 71