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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

28th January:

Thermosphere climate index: 35.8 billion watts.

Radio sun 74sfu

Kp index=1=quiet.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

29th January:

Thermosphere climate index: 35.5 billion watts.

Solar flux: 76sfu

Kp index=2=quiet.

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

31st January:

Thermosphere climate index: 35.8 billion watts.

Kp index=1=quiet.

Solar flux: 74sfu

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Sunspot Ar2733 still crackling with minor b and c class flares but decaying.

55% chance of g1 magnetic storm today.

Arctic auroras possible.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Snow last night & still snowing, and just when I didn't think it could get any better...... we go spotless.

1 day spotless, 15 for 2019 47%

Solar flux 72

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

ARCTIC DREAM SKY: Auroras are dancing around the Arctic Circle on Feb. 1st as Earth moves deeper into a stream of fast-moving solar wind. Observers in Norway and Sweden are calling the display "the best of the season" and perhaps "the best in years." Eva Kristiansen sends this picture from Tromsø:

 

dreamsky_strip Arctic Dream Sky Aurora.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

2 day's blank, 16 for 2019, 48%

Solar flux 72

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

AURORAS IN CANADA AND THE USA: For the 3rd day in a row, Earth is inside a stream of high-speed solar wind, which is sparking intermitent G1-class geomagnetic storms around the Arctic Circle. Last night in Churchill, Manotiba, "the entire sky turned green," reports Alan Dyer, who says the storm was actually subsiding when he took this picture:

 

supergreen_strip Auroras in Canada and the USA.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

http://www.solarham.net/

Solar terrestrial data

3rd February 12:43 GMT

Sun spot number: 0

Solar Flare Index: 71

Solar wind: 581.4

Spotless days 17 days

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
19 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

3rd February:

Thermosphere climate index: 37.7 billion watts.

Kp index=3=unsettled.

Seems to be waking up a tad...not sure if we're expecting that or not...

Edited by JeffC
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
31 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Seems to be waking up a tad...not sure if we're expecting that or not...

I think the forecast is for solar activity to start to increase this year.  Hopefully not too quickly!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

3 day's blank, 17 for 2019 50%

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
7 hours ago, Don said:

I think the forecast is for solar activity to start to increase this year.  Hopefully not too quickly!

So maybe NOT a GrandMinimum this time round then...  

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
11 hours ago, Don said:

I think the forecast is for solar activity to start to increase this year.  Hopefully not too quickly!

Already?

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
11 hours ago, Don said:

I think the forecast is for solar activity to start to increase this year.  Hopefully not too quickly!

There are a few different forecasts from SIDC:

prediKFSC.png

prediKFCM.png

prediKFML.png

 

I'm not sure what method NOAA uses, but their smoothed prediction has it flatlining for years:

solar-cycle-sunspot-number.gif

However, I don't trust it because the solar flux forecast dips under 60 which is physically impossible:

solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif

 

Who knows? It will be an interesting year.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

PURPLE AURORAS OVER FAIRBANKS: February is off to a good start, according to photographer Marketa Murray of Fairbanks, Alaska. "It's looking good!" she says. The month was only a few hours old on Feb. 1st when she photographed this spray of green and purple auroras:

purple_strip Purple auroas over Fairbanks.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

4 day's blank, 18 for 2019, 51 %

Solar flux 71

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway
15 hours ago, JeffC said:

Seems to be waking up a tad...not sure if we're expecting that or not...

Some experts are of the opinion that grand solar minimum begins 2030...solar cycle 25 will produce more sunspots than cycle 24...Ben Davidson of suspicious observers believes this is the case, it certainly looks like it so far...

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

Some experts are of the opinion that grand solar minimum begins 2030...solar cycle 25 will produce more sunspots than cycle 24...Ben Davidson of suspicious observers believes this is the case, it certainly looks like it so far...

So that would be SC 26...?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

Some experts are of the opinion that grand solar minimum begins 2030...solar cycle 25 will produce more sunspots than cycle 24...Ben Davidson of suspicious observers believes this is the case, it certainly looks like it so far...

So, perhaps this current minimum won't aid us too much to get colder winters in the next few years, then?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

5 day's blank, 19 day's for 2019 53%

Solar flux 71

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