Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[jethro]

34 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Next few moths will give us a clue about cycle 25. Sunspot count is projected to rise soon, hopefully the spotless days keep coming though.

Surprised at that prediction, I thought the general view was that cycle 24 hadn't even reached minimum yet?

[JeffC]

19 minutes ago, jethro said:

Surprised at that prediction, I thought the general view was that cycle 24 hadn't even reached minimum yet?

Yeah me too...although it's possible that an odd spot corresponding to the altered polarity associated with the next solar cycle can occur towards the minimum of the previous cycle, my understanding was that this does not indicate the formal commencement of the new cycle...

[jethro]

2 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Yeah me too...although it's possible that an odd spot corresponding to the altered polarity associated with the next solar cycle can occur towards the minimum of the previous cycle, my understanding was that this does not indicate the formal commencement of the new cycle...

That's what I thought. Perhaps we're both going senile?

[JeffC]

4 hours ago, jethro said:

That's what I thought. Perhaps we're both going senile?

Maybe,or maybe we're all still learning?

[SteveB]

3 day's blank, 3 for 2019, 30%

Solar flux 72

[Katrine Basso]

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.38x1010 W Cold

[Minus 10]

Kp index=2=quiet.

[SteveB]

4 day's blank, 4 for 2019 36%

Solar flux 70

[Katrine Basso]

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.31x1010 W Cold

[Minus 10]

Kp index=2=quiet.

Thermosphere cooling off again.

[virtualsphere]

On 09/01/2019 at 23:56, JeffC said:

Yeah me too...although it's possible that an odd spot corresponding to the altered polarity associated with the next solar cycle can occur towards the minimum of the previous cycle, my understanding was that this does not indicate the formal commencement of the new cycle...

According to this, there have been a few spots already observed from SC25 - http://www.stce.be/news/422/welcome.html 
The curve in the graph does appear to rise a little quicker than I would have expected given the curve between 2008 and 2010.  I'm not sure how accurately drawn the prediction curves are though if you look at the one at in the image at the top of this article: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-24-status-and-solar-cycle-25-upcoming-forecast

This article suggests we shouldn't expect to see much cycle 25 activity "before the middle of 2019 at the earliest" http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2626  

[JeffC]

8 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

According to this, there have been a few spots already observed from SC25 - http://www.stce.be/news/422/welcome.html 
The curve in the graph does appear to rise a little quicker than I would have expected given the curve between 2008 and 2010.  I'm not sure how accurately drawn the prediction curves are though if you look at the one at in the image at the top of this article: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-24-status-and-solar-cycle-25-upcoming-forecast

This article suggests we shouldn't expect to see much cycle 25 activity "before the middle of 2019 at the earliest" http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2626  

Thanks....

There is of course also the research of Valentina Zharkova which suggests we are overdue a prolonged minimum, but we will have to wait and see what solar-based fate awaits us...

[SteveB]

5 day's blank, 5 for 2019 42%

Solar flux 68

[Katrine Basso]

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.31x1010 W Cold

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, Katrine Basso said:

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.31x1010 W Cold

 Not been updated today yet. At least it’s been starting to head the right way again. 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Chris.R

[Minus 10]

Yesterdays updates January 12th:

Solar flux: 68sfu

Thermosphere climate index: 32.2 billion watts.

Kp index=1=quiet.

Big drop in thermosphere temps.

Big drop in solar wind speed and drop in solar flux obviously the reason thermosphere temps are dropping.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Minus 10

[Katrine Basso]

Solar activity report from Solarham.net

The Sun Today : Updated January 13, 2019 13:41 GMT

Sun spot number 0

Solar Flare Index: 70

X-Ray: A1.0

Mag (Bz): -1.0

Solar Wind: 389.0

MUF Boulder No Report

 

[SteveB]

6 day's blank, 6 for 2109 46%

Solar flux 68

[SteveB]

7 day's blank, 7 for 2019, 50%

Solar flux 68

[Yarmy]

On 11/01/2019 at 21:01, virtualsphere said:

According to this, there have been a few spots already observed from SC25 - http://www.stce.be/news/422/welcome.html 
The curve in the graph does appear to rise a little quicker than I would have expected given the curve between 2008 and 2010.  I'm not sure how accurately drawn the prediction curves are though if you look at the one at in the image at the top of this article: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-24-status-and-solar-cycle-25-upcoming-forecast

This article suggests we shouldn't expect to see much cycle 25 activity "before the middle of 2019 at the earliest" http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2626  

There are loads of forecasts methods. These are 3 that SIDC publish:

 

For what it's worth, the Denkmayr Combined Method (green line) performed best during SC24 max correctly predicting the size of the second peak.

However, all these methods are apparently less effective in predicting minimums. Should know which one is on the money by the end of the year.

Edited January 14, 2019 by Yarmy

[Katrine Basso]

Thermosphere Climate Index
Yesterday: 3.18x1010 W Cold

Updated 13 Jan 2019

 

[Minus 10]

Kp index=1=quiet.

[SteveB]

8 day's blank, 8 for 2019 53%

Solar flux 70

[Katrine Basso]

THE COLOUR OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun has been blank for 8 straight days--a sign that Solar Minimum is in progress. Another sign of Solar Minimum: strangely pink auroras. "The Spaceweather.com team has warned us to be alert for pink auroras during Solar Minimum, and here they are," reports Markus Varik, who took this picture last night in Tromsø, Norway.

 

[Minus 10]

8 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

THE COLOUR OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun has been blank for 8 straight days--a sign that Solar Minimum is in progress. Another sign of Solar Minimum: strangely pink auroras. "The Spaceweather.com team has warned us to be alert for pink auroras during Solar Minimum, and here they are," reports Markus Varik, who took this picture last night in Tromsø, Norway.

 

Stunning!