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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
23 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

14th December:

Thermosphere climate index:  33.4 billion watts.

 Still dropping nicely. 

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway
1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Still dropping nicely. 

Yes it is and nearing that record low set in feb 2009

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
24 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Yes it is and nearing that record low set in feb 2009

Of the satelite era we have no idea what it was say in the dalton minimum !!

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway
22 hours ago, jonboy said:

Of the satelite era we have no idea what it was say in the dalton minimum !!

The Maunder minimum would be intriguing.

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Sunspot ar2731 is a typical solar minimum sunspot and poses no threat for solar flares.

Kp index=0=quiet

Solar winds 331.7km/sec

Radio sun   10.7cm flux 71sfu

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
13 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

The Maunder minimum would be intriguing.

It would but i think this minimum is more dalton in intensity

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Thermosphere Climate Index
3.30x1010 W Cold

Updated 15 Dec 2018

Edited by Katrine Basso
Add date
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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway
15 hours ago, jonboy said:

It would but i think this minimum is more dalton in intensity

Ive heard varying opinions from extremity to extremity, ie: the earths gonna freeze over, the earths gonna boil up. Basically im gonna sit back, observe and learn as the years go by.

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Tiny sunspot ar2731 unleased a b1 class type flare, no black outs of note as of 15th December 2018.

Sunspot ar2731 is almost gone, possibly the rest of december could be spotless.

Solar wind 299.4km/sec

Radio sun 10.7cm flux  71sfu

Kp index=1=quiet.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 hour ago, Minus 10 said:

Thermosphere climate index:   32.2 billion watts. By goodness that really is dropping like a stone.

 Wow! If it continues at that rate then we will have beaten 2009 by NewYear’s Day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

1 day blank, 207 for 2018 59%

Solar flux 70

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

December 17th.

Minor geomagnetic unrest possible due to earth facing coronal hole. Some aurora could be witnessed in the arctic circle.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

2 day's blank, 208 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 70

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.19
x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

December 18th:

Thermosphere climate index:  31.6 billion watts. 

Kp index=2=quiet

Solar wind 429.2km/sec

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

With solar minimum deepening, expect sunspotless days in 2019 to be in the hundreds according to spaceweather.com

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Solar wind density: 9.7 protons/cm3

Apparently the solar wind density is responsible for how much cosmic rays penetrate into our atmosphere, combined with the suns magnetic field. The lower the solar wind density  the more cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere. Solar wind density "im guessing" is low due to solar minimum. What ive learnt so far regarding cosmic rays: cosmic rays can seed clouds thus creating and altering weather patterns, and keeping a weather pattern in a rut for prolonged periods. Atmospheric compression events also known as ACE, can create tremendous amounts of rainfall and the phenomenon of destructive hail in short spaces of time.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

3 day's blank, 209 for 2018 59%

Solar flux 70

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

December 19th 2018:

Thermosphere climate index: 32.0 billion watts.

Kp index=2=quiet.

Solar wind: 503.5km/sec

Solar wind density: 7.3 protons/cm3

Solar wind density reduced today, solar wind has increased, thermosphere heated a little today, another sunspotless day, kp index quiet again.

 

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

4 day's blank, 210 for 2018 59%

Solar flux 70

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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

Unexpectedly, solar wind has reached a speed of 600km/sec. The pressure of this high speed wind on our earths magnetic field could cause auroras in the arctic circle today.

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Galway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost hail, ice.
  • Location: Galway

December 20th:

Thermosphere climate index: 33.0 billion watts.

Kp index=1=quiet.

Solar wind: 536.2km/sec

Solar wind density: 4.4/protons cm3

 

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Solarham.com Solar activity report:

Sunspot Number: 0

Solar flare index: 70

 

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