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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Of interest to follow, Schwabe cycle 11 years, last Schwabe minima

2007 = 152 days

2008 = 256 days

2009 = 250 days

 

Now move forward 11 years

2018 = 149 days.......with 102 days to go.  If this is going where anticipated then 2019/2020 could be very very quiet and we ‘could’ be in for a major bottoming out come 2029-2032? The target ‘projection’ of 1st of a double dip Grand Minima this century.

Fascinating observations currently

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 150 days (57%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

9 day's blank, 151 day's  for 2018,  57%

Solar flux 67

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10 day's blank, 152 for 2018 57%

Solar flux 68

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

If the figures stay at 57% , that extrapolated to 208 days blank, which is quite a rapid descent if it's Schwabe cycle based...

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Yes guys and girls, indeed.  This for me is a big marker, we are on schedule to be well ahead of 07......and if it continues how low will 18/19 get? 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

exciting times, shame the solar min thread got closed, it was a great thread until it got derailed by global warming stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

exciting times, shame the solar min thread got closed, it was a great thread until it got derailed by global warming stuff.

Well, if you're that bothered, why don't you start a new one - in the Climate part of the forum, Steve?:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Because it would soon be closed again, some people just can't help themselves! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Because it would soon be closed again, some people just can't help themselves! 

All you can do is try, is it not...? And if it is closed (before anyone starts a bicker fest, that is) you'll be proven right, won't you?

The ball is in your court...:D

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Nah, you're alright, I'll leave it to someone braver than me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if you're that bothered, why don't you start a new one - in the Climate part of the forum, Steve?

If I can work out how to do it I'll restart it in the climate thread, but ask folk to keep it relevant, might even start one on the Schwabe cycle... 

It'll be later on as I'm back being a wage slave so having to travel on a Sunday night... 

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
4 hours ago, JeffC said:

If I can work out how to do it I'll restart it in the climate thread, but ask folk to keep it relevant, might even start one on the Schwabe cycle... 

It'll be later on as I'm back being a wage slave so having to travel on a Sunday night... 

Righto I think I've started it in the right thread... Crack on... 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

11 day's blank, 153 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux 68

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0
Updated 25 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 12 days
2018 total: 154 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

This is heading exactly as anticipated re deep/Grand minima.  Target for Maunder style minima 2032....so 2029-2032 we should see super quiet sun.....and we should see ramifications from this one very very soon.  Jet not firing up as ‘some’ forecast due to AGW....solar Dalton grand minima is here.....hold on to your hats as we look to go deeper

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sunspot number: 0
Updated 26 Sep 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 13 days
2018 total: 155 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 68 sfu

The solar flux has been unchanged for 13 days. I hope that this trend will continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

14 day's blank, 156 for 2018, 58%

Solar remains at 68

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Three days old but still....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Three days old but still....

 

Not sure what he's on about. There's no way of knowing whether it's solar minimum or not yet, and we won't know until there's a significant uptick in activity. It could start tomorrow or not for another 3 years.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

There's some analogue evidence for short, deep minimums however 2008/2009 for example was an alternative anonomy (not the only one). I personally suspect this one will be another long one and near record breaking.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

15 day's blank, 157 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux dipped a little to 67

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

We are set for some interesting times.

http://spaceweather.com/

THE CHILL OF SOLAR MINIMUM: The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018, and the sun's ultraviolet output has sharply dropped. New research shows that Earth's upper atmosphere is responding.

"We see a cooling trend," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA's Langley Research Center. "High above Earth's surface near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, the upper atmosphere could soon set a Space Age record for cold."

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