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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Updated now,

 

9 day's blank, 120 for 2018, 56%

Solar flux is 68

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10 day's blank, 121 for 2018 57%

Solar flux 69

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We have a small sunspot now.

Since we have hit 121 assuming a 60% rate from August-year end (~150 potential days) we get a figure of 90 so i'm going to call it. 

2018 will see 200 days spotless, the 15th most spotless year on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

It looks spotless now, can't see a thing yet Space Weather claims there is a small spot! Must be a single pixel! I'm going for 220 spotless days :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, drgl said:

It looks spotless now, can't see a thing yet Space Weather claims there is a small spot! Must be a single pixel! I'm going for 220 spotless days :)

Spaceweather updates overnight, so it is telling you what the situation was yesterday. And yesterday (and the day before) there was a sunspot.

If you're looking for a real time count, the SILSO SSN updates during the day as the observations come in:

http://sidc.oma.be/silso/home

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, drgl said:

Well it's todays date with the image below, Can't see a thing, can you?!

hmi1898.gif

There's no way the spots being counted these days will have been spotted in the past, that's for sure. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, drgl said:

Well it's todays date with the image below, Can't see a thing, can you?!

hmi1898.gif

It's a snapshot image for the 3rd August. Spaceweather updates in the early hours of the morning with the data for the previous day from the boulder SSN count. There was a very clear visible spot in that active region yesterday and the day before which is why it was counted by them and also the observers who report to SILSO.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's no way the spots being counted these days will have been spotted in the past, that's for sure. 

Which is why a correcting factor is applied to each observer. Moreover, the original telescope and method used by Rudolf Wolf in the 19th century in Zurich is still used and the other observations calibrated to that.

Anyway, the old observers were capable of observing astonishing detail. This picture was made by James Nasmyth in 1860:

97873.jpg

...and Galileo 200 years before that...

Umlaufbahn-von-Sonnenflecken-1630_image_

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Some interesting stuff regarding our solar minimum..

So to start with i wanted to know if we really are falling faster than the last cycle or whether the calendar year effect is just distorting things and it does seem that actually we are indeed tracking ahead of the last solar cycle on our own merits (though a smoothed graph might be better)..

DjiAbndUcAAB0bQ.jpg

Paradoxically though, more modest minimums typically see activity collapse quicker and hence right now we mirror the years with less accumulated spotless days more. 

SC25_evol0.png

..

The short of it is that either we are all going to be fooled and see minima pretty soon before the next solar cycle starts or we are tracking at record pace and will obliterate all competition.

As much as i don't want to sound biased i think the grand minima theory holds true and i do think we are looking at this minimum being even better than the last. 

Indeed it will not be long before pass most of the modest short minima that we have seen of recent cycles. 

SC25_SCvsNumber.png

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily Sun: 04 Aug 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2018 total: 122 days (56%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 solar flux units

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

2 day's blank, 123 for 2018 56%

Solar flux is 70

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

3 day's blank, 124 for 2018 57%

Solar flux 69

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

I have just heard on yesterday's Sunday's G.V.W . Sunday Round up that we have now entered solar minimum.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
On 03/08/2018 at 14:16, Yarmy said:

It's a snapshot image for the 3rd August. Spaceweather updates in the early hours of the morning with the data for the previous day from the boulder SSN count. There was a very clear visible spot in that active region yesterday and the day before which is why it was counted by them and also the observers who report to SILSO.

Very clear visible? I check Space weather every day, the spot in question was barely visible from the start, the fact it disappeared so quickly says it all IMO. I can't see how on earth the spot in question could ever have been visible from earth.

 

Anyway, blank again...

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
8 minutes ago, drgl said:

Very clear visible? I check Space weather every day, the spot in question was barely visible from the start, the fact it disappeared so quickly says it all IMO. I can't see how on earth the spot in question could ever have been visible from earth.

 

Anyway, blank again...

I saw it, and more importantly, so did dozens of observers for both the Boulder SSN count and the International SSN (SILSO). Do you know who those observers are? They are volunteers in their back gardens with telescopes or just simple projectors. E.g.:

Visit here:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

Select the date and time range 2018-08-01 01:00 to 2018-08-02 20:00, then choose the HMI Intensitygram Flat (orange) from the Telescopes dropdown, choose the Browser Display radio button, 512x512 resolution, and set the Display one image per nth (optional) value to 5. Then click Submit. Have fun.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire

Thanks, very useful. Spaceweather only ever showed that spot when it was barely visible.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

S.I.LS.O and Solarham have the a blank spotless sun today.  Spaceweather has not updated this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Space Weather.com has just updated.

Daily Sun: 07 Aug 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Updated 07 Aug 2018

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2018 total: 125 days (57%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 solar flux units

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sunspot count 08 August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 5 days
2018 total: 126 days (57%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 69 solar flare units

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sunspot count 09 August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 6 days
2018 total: 127 days (57%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

Hopefully the solar flux will lower and that I hope we will get 200 sun spotless days.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sun: 10th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 7 days
2018 total: 128 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Daily sun: 11th August 2018

Sunspot number: 0

Current Stretch: 8 days
2018 total: 128 days (58%)

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 70 sfu

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not far off 60%.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

9 day's blank, 130 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux 70

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