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Solar and Aurora Activity Chat


shuggee

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

It won't be long before we reach the 2010 count of 51 sun spotless days.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
3 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

It won't be long before we reach the 2010 count of 51 sun spotless days.

It would be nice if we can get there while in this spotless run!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

What was the solar flux like in the previous minimum? What did it bottom out at? Quite a good indicator of likely activity I believe?

I assume under 70 means it's pretty much lifeless?

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What was the solar flux like in the previous minimum? What did it bottom out at? Quite a good indicator of likely activity I believe?

There is a physical minimum of about 65 or so (adjusted for distance to Earth as it varies). The value can hover between that and 70 for months or years around solar min. It's too early to tell what will happen with this one. The fast uptick in spotless days is usually indicative of a shorter minimum, but I think things could be different this time. There's a chance we could be entering an extended period of low solar activity (decades). It's happened many times before.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

We've hit the big 50 for 2018 & 9 days blank in a row.

Solar flux  68

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

10 days blank, 51 for 2018 57%

Solar flux 69

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

I wonder what will the final count of sun spotless days. I hope it will between 150 and 200.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
15 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

I wonder what will the final count of sun spotless days. I hope it will between 150 and 200.

On hope it will be 328. As we're 88 days into the year so 277 days left +51 already blank....

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
16 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

I wonder what will the final count of sun spotless days. I hope it will between 150 and 200.

I would imagine something between 250 and 275. There is no reason to expect any significant activity. I would imagine we may see the odd spot that would last two or three days at most with the odd group last a full cycle of the face.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

We have already achieved 52 spotless days this year which is half of the total count of 2017!

So we are doing very well but taking a break currently as a growing sunspot appeared in the eastern side of the sun that will keep us spot free for a few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
4 hours ago, ghoneym said:

Neat new feature on Earthnull, now the aurora is included

5abe8b541e0e8_ScreenShot2018-03-30at20_07_35.thumb.png.6e0d423a64e85fa4bec77c1585143a82.png

Ooh me like dat

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

The sun has gone blank again

1 day, 53 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux 69

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
4 hours ago, SteveB said:

The sun has gone blank again

1 day, 53 for 2018, 58%

Solar flux 69

Now 54 days and solar flux 68

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

current spell 3 days

55 days so far in 2018 and solar flux 68

Does anybody remember how low was the solar flux in the last minimum? It appears very stable.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
8 hours ago, karyo said:

current spell 3 days

55 days so far in 2018 and solar flux 68

Does anybody remember how low was the solar flux in the last minimum? It appears very stable.

I believe 65 is the lowest it can get

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Spaceweather has not updated the sunspot count today as it still has yesterdays sunspot count.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Spaceweather has not updated the sunspot count today as it still has yesterdays sunspot count.

Now updated to 56 days and a flux of 68

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
22 hours ago, tynevalleysnow said:

I believe 65 is the lowest it can get

Just to give some perspective, how high can it go?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
5 hours ago, JeffC said:

Just to give some perspective, how high can it go?

Don’t quote me but I think it’s 240. Definitely over 200 though.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Don’t quote me but I think it’s 240. Definitely over 200 though.

Ooh...that's interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
20 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Ooh...that's interesting

It’s never been over 200 during cycle 24!

http://www.solarham.net/firsts.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

5 days blank, 57 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 66

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 hours ago, SteveB said:

5 days blank, 57 for 2018, 59%

Solar flux 66

This is a new low for the solar flux for this cycle.

:yahoo::cold::clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
22 minutes ago, karyo said:

This is a new low for the solar flux for this cycle.

:yahoo::cold::clap:

Not quite. There were consecutive (adjusted for the Sun-Earth distance) observations of 64.8, 64.6 and 64.3 on the 9th November last year. 

If you look at the archive date on Spaceweather for that date (actually the next day because they update the day after):

http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=11&year=2017

...then you can see they are showing a flux value of 66, but that's because they are using the observed flux rather than the adjusted flux. They ought to be using the latter because the flux is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from the Sun to the Earth. (The widget on Solarham makes the same mistake).

 

 

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