Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[drgl]

I did notice that. I do sometimes wonder if Space weather do this on purpose!! That one spot seemed to take an age to disappear, in fact on the last day I couldn't see a thing! Then the next image update shows a huge region....hmmmmm

[Polar Maritime]

Kp5 tonight.

[karyo]

A new sunspot is emerging. It looks like the sun is quite active now compared to the last few months.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg 

Edited August 21, 2017 by karyo

[summer blizzard]

Four sunspots.

[Don]

On 8/21/2017 at 09:01, karyo said:

A new sunspot is emerging. It looks like the sun is quite active now compared to the last few months.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg 

Just in time for autumn and winter!

[karyo]

On 9/2/2017 at 21:47, Don said:

Just in time for autumn and winter!

The sun has got even more active today! 

The solar flux is up at 120. I think the last time I saw it so high was last year.

[Yarmy]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

The sun has got even more active today! 

The solar flux is up at 120. I think the last time I saw it so high was last year.

Highest since Feb 2016. Not surprising to see activity fluctuate, but the scale of the ramp up is an eye-opener.

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Highest since Feb 2016. Not surprising to see activity fluctuate, but the scale of the ramp up is an eye-opener.

Wow, that's even longer than i thought. 

Of course we can't expect the sun to continuously drift into quietness as we approach the solar minimum but I can't help but feel disheartened by the sudden increase.

[Polar Maritime]

M5.5 flare from sunspot 2673.

[Yarmy]

Solar flux hit 185sfu yesterday evening! Co-incident with the aforementioned flare, but still...wow. 

[Brucie]

I knew solar activity had been on the increase over the last few days but to see it so high today (highest for a long time) was a big shock.  All things equal and comparing this stage of the cycle with the equivalent in previous cycles, one should expect an equally sudden fall in activity before too long...unless the sun is being molested with! 

David

Northallerton

P.S. There used to be daily readings of solar flux etc. taken from Penticton, Canada and these were shown on Solarham but there are no longer there.  Does anybody know why?

[frogesque]

Time to get all the camera batteries charged, the tripod packed and the remote bulb checked over.

Kp7 forecast on Solarham for the 6th. and 7th. All that's needed are some clear skies. Moonlight may be a problem but it looks like the best chance for aurora for a while.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 04/09/2017 at 09:47, karyo said:

Wow, that's even longer than i thought. 

Of course we can't expect the sun to continuously drift into quietness as we approach the solar minimum but I can't help but feel disheartened by the sudden increase.

Perhaps the forecasts RE solar activity have all been wrong and we're heading into a new cycle which is already starting to ramp up?

IIRC someone did say a few months back they weren't sure whether or not the polarity had already been reversed and what we were seeing were new cycle sunspots.

Then again I know very little about these things.

[sundog]

This was said on spaceweather site last week,

For reasons researchers dont fully understand the weeks around equinoxes have more geomagnetic disturbances then at any other time of the yr

[frogesque]

Sunspot AR2673 unleashed an X9 solar flair on the 6th.

Per SpaceWeather

Not yet known if there is an associated CME but if so and Earth directed this will be a doozy! Possibly arorae as far south as Paris.

Stand by your beds, this could be the big one!

 

[Yarmy]

Massive flare. Largest of the cycle by a country mile.

[frogesque]

Above, Solarham report the flare as X9.3 and confirm a bright CME.

Whoopdedo!

[joggs]

When will auroras be visible?

[Yarmy]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

When will auroras be visible?

1-4 days for the CME to arrive.

Then we just need clear skies: rarely a problem in the UK 

[frogesque]

44 minutes ago, joggs said:

When will auroras be visible?

Lol @ Yarmy

Yep clear skies are a bit of a must. Timing will be dependent on the solar wind speed. SpaceWeather, Solarham etc will be watching closely as this could have implications for power grids and satellites.

• I'm also sure us aurora freaks will also be keeping everyone updated.
• Edit: early indications suggest 48 hours +- 8 hours but this is very tentative atm.

Edited September 6, 2017 by frogesque

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, frogesque said:

Sunspot AR2673 unleashed an X9 solar flair on the 6th.

Per SpaceWeather

Not yet known if there is an associated CME but if so and Earth directed this will be a doozy! Possibly arorae as far south as Paris.

Stand by your beds, this could be the big one!

 

Frog please help me solar not really my thing. By big one I assume auras for most of uk 

[frogesque]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Frog please help me solar not really my thing. By big one I assume auras for most of uk 

It looks as if the earlier X2 flare will be caught up by the later X9 flare. There are a lot of variables, mag flux, speed and mag orientation but if the gods look kindly we could even be seen pics of aurora from Spain.

All very speculative but fingers crossed. I would hope Yorkshire and the Black Country to see something at least. We should know more within the next day. 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, frogesque said:

It looks as if the earlier X2 flare will be caught up by the later X9 flare. There are a lot of variables, mag flux, speed and mag orientation but if the gods look kindly we could even be seen pics of aurora from Spain.

All very speculative but fingers crossed. I would hope Yorkshire and the Black Country to see something at least. We should know more within the next day. 

Thanks. Another question if I may. If it does happen like you said how rare are these events . I can never remember them bring visable this far south . 

[Mokidugway]

Let's hope the weather plays ball ,would expect some decent displays here in Cumbria .

 

[frogesque]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Thanks. Another question if I may. If it does happen like you said how rare are these events . I can never remember them bring visable this far south . 

Rare enough, especially during sunspot minimum. Last big one I saw was the Halloween aurora 2003 when reports came in from Florida and Texas.

We were not that far past the closest approach of Mars in the August and as well as very strong lights to the North, Mars was South of overhead and the sky was bathed in a red glow. I think that was also when a good part of the Canadian power grid was knocked out.

So yep, pretty rare.