Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Summer 1996 was pretty respectable. The summers weren't that bad, IMO around that minimum compared to the summers around the last minimum. 

 

 

The studies suggest the effects of low summer ice and low sunspots are similar in producing very wavy patterns in the jet stream.... maybe a double whammy in 2007? Lots of other factors to consider in circulation patterns, these will also dictate if we benefit from a ridge or get stuck in a trough.

[Weather-history]

On 22 March 2017 at 21:45, damianslaw said:

I think it is a notable feature that the cold winters of 08-09 - 10-11 coincided with the last solar minimum coming on the back of a lengthy run of very mild winters in the main - against the background warming that has taken place since the late 90's in particular. There appears a trend for cold winters to occur when at the bottom/peak of the solar min and when just getting out of it, with this is mind winter 18-19 will be when we have a greater chance of a cold winter than next.. if the theory pans out.

The last solar min period preceeding 08-09 was 85-86 I think and we had a cold winter then, followed by the bitter cold of Jan 1987 and generally a cold 2 years in 1986 and 1987. Doesn't always result in cold winters though, I think the previous cold minima period was early 70's when we had a run of mild winters.. One very notable change occured during summer 07, the jetstream became very southerly and this pattern lasted in the main through until summer 13, when a quick shift occured to a very northerly displaced one.. so something to keep an eye on next summer is whether we see a sudden switch in the position of the jetstream.. all a while off yet.

What was notable about the last solar minimum was how strong Greenland blocking was. I don't think I have seen blocking in that region that strong and persistent for a long time, they were few +ve NAO months in that period. Every month in 2010 was a -ve NAO month. Scandinavian blocks were very limited. It could explain why we had a colder winter and months in that period than occurred with the mid 1990s solar minimum.

The previous solar minimum had a lot of Scandinavian blocking around 1995 to 1997. The cold was less impressive though apart from that last week in December 1995.  January and December 2010 were colder than any month in the 1990s and 10th March-9th April 2013 CET was colder than January 1997.

 

Edited March 25, 2017 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

What was notable about the last solar minimum was how strong Greenland blocking was. I don't think I have seen blocking in that region that strong and persistent for a long time, they were few +ve NAO months in that period. Every month in 2010 was a -ve NAO month. Scandinavian blocks were very limited. It could explain why we had a colder winter and months in that period than occurred with the mid 1990s solar minimum.

The previous solar minimum had a lot of Scandinavian blocking around 1995 to 1997. The cold was less impressive though apart from that last week in December 1995.  January and December 2010 were colder than any month in the 1990s and 10th March-9th April 2013 CET was colder than January 1997.

 

Yes there was a difference between the synoptics of the last solar min period and the one before as you describe, and indeed the one before that around 85-87 which also saw much more in the way of scandi blocking than greenland blocking, Feb 86, Aug/Sept 86 being an extreme case in point. Perhaps the rapid loss of ice in the arctic is one reason I wonder? 

[ciel]

http://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/Global_activity_now.html

Aurora alert issued.

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, ciel said:

http://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/Global_activity_now.html

Aurora alert issued.

Yep currently at Kp5 Storm possible Kp6 some good clear sky's for chances of sightings in the North tonight.

[Weather-history]

 

[Polar Maritime]

Nice shot W.H, Some wonderful photos of the Aurora from the Highlands on the net from last night.

[Polar Maritime]

Scientists sound the alarm: Northern Lights will become colourless due to global warming

Atmospheric research scientists at the University of Troon published a paper today where they uncover that the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) and the Aurora Australis (southern lights) are to become colourless in the near future due to atmospheric changes caused by the warming of our planet.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/northern-lights-will-become-colourless-due-to-global-warming

[Polar Maritime]

Moving away from April fools day.. A substantial M4.4 Solar flare from around sunspot region 2644 on the N/West quadrant last night. Shame it's not off the massive sunspot facing Earth.

Edited April 2, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Another flare just from the same sunspot as above this time M5.3..

 

 

Edited April 2, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Make that 3 M Class flares today from the same region.

[Crepuscular Ray]

That beauty was unexpected.

PM, given the latitude and messy polarity on the magnetogram (see soho link), do you think that 2644 is still old cycle or the beginnings of the next cycle?

 

https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_mag/512/

 

[Polar Maritime]

Something I will look into Crep but would guess still old Cycle. Make that 5 M Class flares..

 

[knocker]

 

[Polar Maritime]

Currently Kp4 and forecast for the next 24hr so the far North could be in for a chance of Aurora sightings tonight under clear sky's. 

[SteveB]

We have a blank day, but it looks like a spot is coming into view

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.solarham.net/

[karyo]

1 hour ago, SteveB said:

We have a blank day, but it looks like a spot is coming into view

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.solarham.net/

Every day is a bonus!

[SteveB]

Indeed, and hopefully this new spot won't hang around for long

[SteveB]

Another blank day, is this a start of another run of blank days or is there a spot lurking just out of view?

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[jonboy]

8 hours ago, SteveB said:

Another blank day, is this a start of another run of blank days or is there a spot lurking just out of view?

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Spaceweather.com may have called 1 spotless day but activity has been so low laymans sunspot count are on 10 spotless days. unlikely to last more than a day or two

[keithlucky]

AoSolar activity cintues at very weak with the spotless days to 16 extract from Frank Bosse

[Crepuscular Ray]

Giant explosion from the big spot of a week or so ago.

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

Not sure if this should be in one of the related threads, but what the heck.

Given that the downturn in solar activity towards the end of this cycle - after a pretty boring time sunspot-wise over the whole cycle - hasn't delivered seven-foot snow drifts in Eastbourne and white-outs in Norfolk, have any of those amongst us who think that there is a direct provable link between lack of sunspot activity and snowy winters in our neck of the woods got any explanations for the lack of apparent correlation?

[jonboy]

11 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Giant explosion from the big spot of a week or so ago.

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

Not sure if this should be in one of the related threads, but what the heck.

Given that the downturn in solar activity towards the end of this cycle - after a pretty boring time sunspot-wise over the whole cycle - hasn't delivered seven-foot snow drifts in Eastbourne and white-outs in Norfolk, have any of those amongst us who think that there is a direct provable link between lack of sunspot activity and snowy winters in our neck of the woods got any explanations for the lack of apparent correlation?

lag times if the sun activity had such an immediate effect we would see it every day we don't. the changes are subtle and take time as patterns change and built up heat from the previous very high active cycles disapates

[Weather-history]

 

[Weather-history]

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2017 total: 31 days (24%)