Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[drgl]

4 days spotless now

[Polar Maritime]

QUIET SUN: Solar activity remains low. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun have stable, quiet magnetic fields. NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 1% chance of strong flares on June 13th. http://spaceweather.com/

Kp4 expected tonight, So Scotland should at least Aurora weather depending..

[Polar Maritime]

Kp5 Storm expected later.

[jonboy]

Another spotless run to start tomorrow

[Polar Maritime]

THE SUN IS STILL BLANK: For the 5th day in a row, the face of the sun is blank--no sunspots. As a result, solar activity is low. NOAA forecasters say the chance of a strong solar flare today is no more than 1% http://spaceweather.com/

There has been activity on the far side which will turn towards us over the next few days.

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[SteveB]

Still blank, 7 day's in a row, 11 day's for 2016

http://spaceweather.com/

[SteveB]

The sun is still blank, making it 9 day's in a row spotless.

http://spaceweather.com/

The sun has not had this many spotless day's in one year since 2010 when there was 51 spotless day's

Edited July 2, 2016 by SteveB

[Frosty.]

20 hours ago, SteveB said:

The sun is still blank, making it 9 day's in a row spotless.

http://spaceweather.com/

The sun has not had this many spotless day's in one year since 2010 when there was 51 spotless day's

The last time we had a winter, there is hope after all 

[SteveB]

It looks like we are head towards solar minimum, so its a good test to see if the theory of colder winters are associated  with solar minimum cycles.

Just a below average Winter month would be nice this year.

[SteveB]

11 day's in a row spotless. 15 day's for the year.

http://spaceweather.com/

Solar flux at 72

http://www.solarham.net/

[drgl]

Interesting times ahead I hope

[SteveB]

12 hours ago, drgl said:

Interesting times ahead I hope

Indeed it is, I'm just hoping we get a winter like we did in 2010 soon, and I don't think the sun going to sleep again is going to do our chances any harm at all

12 spotless day's in a row, 16 day's spotless this year. http://spaceweather.com/

Solar flux at 74 http://www.solarham.net/

Edited July 5, 2016 by SteveB

[SteveB]

Spotless run ends with two dubious tiny spots....

http://spaceweather.com/

Solar flux still low at 72

http://www.solarham.net/

[drgl]

Those spots are tiny! Be interesting to see if any more rotate into view soon.....

 

Personally I'm not expecting this winter to see any changes but the one after that......

[Polar Maritime]

BIG SUNSPOTS: Solar activity has been low for months. This could soon change. Two big sunspot groups are directly facing Earth, and one of them has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares. http://spaceweather.com/

 

[bobbydog]

sunspots look like uranus

just saying.....

Edited July 19, 2016 by bobbydog

[Polar Maritime]

Ok..

An M5 + M7 class flares last night which could lead to a glancing blows to Earth over the next few days.

 

Edited July 23, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

How many sunspots did we get in 2015 and how many so far this year?

[Yarmy]

23 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

How many sunspots did we get in 2015 and how many so far this year?

The official International sunspot count raw data is here:

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

There are couple of other semi-official counts and the differences are explained here:

http://sidc.be/silso/node/53

[jonboy]

11 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The official International sunspot count raw data is here:

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

There are couple of other semi-official counts and the differences are explained here:

http://sidc.be/silso/node/53

But there is doubt about SILSO updated methods and at least 4 papers challenge it see below

Has the SILSO sold out the sunspot record? In breaking news there are 4 papers published this year that pose serious questions to the Svalgaard/Clette review of the international sunspot number that ended up changing the sunspot record last July. If the challenges are withheld it would seem the most important sunspot record of 400 years has been allowed to be manipulated to reflect the views of just two people, who could be seriously argued as having their own agenda rather than basing the outcome on rigorous science. The Svalgaard/Clette revised Group Sunspot Number has also been challenged. It will be interesting if this topic comes up on WUWT?

Paper 1

Paper 2

Paper 3

Paper 4

Another paper in print could also challenge the SILSO revision:

Friedli,T.K. 2016,“The construction of the Wolf Series from 1749 to 1980”, SolarPhys.,

 

If you want the papers follow this link

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/340

 

[Nouska]

On 24/07/2016 at 12:56, summer blizzard said:

How many sunspots did we get in 2015 and how many so far this year?

I prefer to look at the Ap data rather than number of sunspots - recent research indicates the magnetic activity is more likely to be an influence.

Last year was the most active in that respect since minimum. This year is not so different to the early part of last year - if it continues to fall, maybe more interest later in the year.

ftp://ftp.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/home/obs/kp-ap/ap_monyr.ave

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/sektion/erdmagnetfeld/daten-produkte-dienste/kp-index/

[Yarmy]

13 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I prefer to look at the Ap data rather than number of sunspots - recent research indicates the magnetic activity is more likely to be an influence.

Last year was the most active in that respect since minimum. This year is not so different to the early part of last year - if it continues to fall, maybe more interest later in the year.

ftp://ftp.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/home/obs/kp-ap/ap_monyr.ave

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/sektion/erdmagnetfeld/daten-produkte-dienste/kp-index/

Yep.

 

The above hasn't been updated since Match 2015, but the I suspect the author will post more regular updates as we descend toward solar min.

[sebastiaan1973]

On ‎25‎-‎7‎-‎2016 at 13:23, Nouska said:

I prefer to look at the Ap data rather than number of sunspots - recent research indicates the magnetic activity is more likely to be an influence.

Last year was the most active in that respect since minimum. This year is not so different to the early part of last year - if it continues to fall, maybe more interest later in the year.

ftp://ftp.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/home/obs/kp-ap/ap_monyr.ave

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/sektion/erdmagnetfeld/daten-produkte-dienste/kp-index/

Well we are still in the declining phase. http://cc.oulu.fi/~kmursula/publications/Maliniemi_etal_JGR_2014.pdf ->

temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

So i.m.o. nothing interesting in terms of solar activity coming winter.

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well we are still in the declining phase. http://cc.oulu.fi/~kmursula/publications/Maliniemi_etal_JGR_2014.pdf ->

temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

So i.m.o. nothing interesting in terms of solar activity coming winter.

Certainly the large -NAO periods only started appearing when solar min had bottomed out around 09/10.

[Nouska]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well we are still in the declining phase. http://cc.oulu.fi/~kmursula/publications/Maliniemi_etal_JGR_2014.pdf ->

temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

So i.m.o. nothing interesting in terms of solar activity coming winter.

"Life's like a box of chocolates ......." - to borrow from another thread.

Anyway, nice power point presentation of current solar research on winter patterns in the NH.

http://lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2015/presentations/Session 2/d_Mursula_SORCE_talk_Public.pdf